Opinion
Nigeria’s Insecurity: Why the System Rewards Reaction, Not Prevention
Published
3 months agoon
The most foolish person in a burning house is not the one who cannot find the exit. It is the one who knew the house would burn, watched it happen, and only ran when the ceiling collapsed. That is Nigeria’s governance posture toward insecurity—a pattern so consistent that it has become normalized.
“Ikú tó pa ojúgbà ẹni, òwe ló fi pa. (The death that kills your neighbour is a proverb directed at you).
The bandits did not simply arrive. They sent warnings ahead of them through a trail of violence that crossed state lines and appeared in every massacre headline we filed away as someone else’s problem.
When Insecurity Was Still “Someone Else’s Problem”
When the North was burning and the Middle Belt bleeding, the South West treated it as distant noise. Kwara became the first warning sign—the bridge between North and South—slowly slipping under the shadow of insurgency. The question every serious observer should have asked was simple: what happens when it crosses the border?
South West governors issued statements—careful, brief, and reactive. None moved with the urgency the threat demanded. Before long, violence arrived at our doorstep: herder brutality in Oke-Ogun, attacks in Oyo and Ekiti, kidnappings along the Ibadan–Ijebu-Ode expressway, and forest camps emerging in Ondo.
The warning signs had matured into reality, yet we were still searching for an exit strategy that should have been built years earlier.
The Problem: We Only Count the Dead
In safety performance management, there is a critical distinction between lagging indicators—outcomes after failure (deaths, destruction, losses)—and leading indicators, which measure prevention before failure occurs.
Aviation, oil and gas, and other high-risk industries understand this clearly: a system that obsesses over lagging indicators will always arrive after the accident.
Nigeria’s security governance is built almost entirely on lagging indicators. We count attacks after they happen. We rebuild after a collapse. We mourn after preventable deaths.
We rarely ask:
How many attacks were prevented this quarter?
How many threats were neutralized before execution?
How many cells were dismantled at the planning stage?
We do not know the answers—because we are not measuring them. The system was never designed to prevent. It was designed to respond: loudly, visibly, expensively, and always too late.
Another Base. The Same Question Nobody Asks
The presidency is reportedly considering a military base in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo state. It is a familiar pattern: a major security incident, public outrage, and an institutional response designed to signal seriousness.
But the critical question remains unanswered: what has been the leading-indicator performance of existing bases?
How have long-standing military formations in places like Jos, Benue, and Zamfara—some active for over two decades—actually shifted the security outcome?
A military base without actionable intelligence is a stationary slaughter ground for soldiers. It does not prevent attacks; it often becomes a reactive outpost in a repeating cycle: attack, deployment, statement, investigation, and then silence—while underlying threat networks remain intact.
The Incentive Structure Behind the Chaos
The deeper issue is not the capability of security forces. It is the incentive structure of the system.
When leadership is judged only by incidents that have already occurred, governance shifts from prevention to performance management of failure. The objective becomes managing optics, not reducing probability.
Nigeria’s security budget has grown significantly over the past decade, yet insecurity has worsened. Kidnappings have become more brazen. Why? Because funding is justified by the persistence of the crisis, not its resolution.
If the problem is solved, what justifies the next budget cycle?
For years, decentralization has been proposed as the structural reform that could change the system—but it remains trapped in political rhetoric. Why? Because decentralization disperses power, and power in Nigeria’s political economy is not dispersed. It is concentrated.
Sixteen Days. Full Stop.
Forty-six children and teachers were kidnapped in Oriire. It reportedly took sixteen days for the presidency to authorize a specialized rescue framework.
Sixteen days before the Commander-in-Chief treated the abduction of forty-six human beings as a crisis requiring formal executive activation.
But responsibility in moments like this is not singular.
The Oyo State Governor, by constitutional convention regarded as the Chief Security Officer of the state and a recipient of security votes, also occupies a central coordinating role in the security architecture of the state. Within a crisis of this scale, expectations of rapid intergovernmental coordination, visible command urgency, and sustained pressure on federal response mechanisms are not optional, hey are inherent to the office.
Yet, the response cycle, from abduction to high-level coordinated action and physical engagement with affected communities, unfolded at a pace that raised legitimate public concern about the speed and intensity of institutional reaction.
By the time visible field visits and coordinated engagements occurred, the delay had already become part of the public record of the crisis itself—shaping perception as much as the incident shaped fear on the ground.
In a functional security system, crisis response is measured in hours, not days. Not for symbolism, but because time directly affects outcomes: every passing hour in an active kidnapping reduces the probability of safe recovery and increases the leverage of perpetrators.
Sixteen days, therefore, is not merely a lapse in timing. It reflects a deeper structural problem—where urgency is often declared after pressure builds, rather than operationalized when intelligence first breaks.
And in that gap between incident and action, citizens are left to absorb the consequences of delayed coordination across all tiers of authority.
The Verdict
Nigeria does not primarily need more military bases. It needs a new security measurement architecture—one that prioritizes intelligence conversion rates, early-warning response times, and pre-emptive disruption metrics over post-incident operations.
Every threat must be treated as time-sensitive, where minutes and hours determine outcomes—not weeks and statements.
Most importantly, citizens must shift the accountability question:
Not only “why did the attack happen?”
But “why was it not prevented?”
Nigeria’s security challenge is ultimately a leadership and systems failure—an institutional preference for reaction over prevention, because prevention is politically invisible.
You cannot hold a press conference about the attack that never happened.
Until this reality is named and confronted with precision, the cycle will continue.
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Opinion
Seven Factors That Keep Sharafadeen Alli Ahead in 2027 Oyo Governorship Race
Published
3 days agoon
September 14, 2026By
Bisi Oladele
Fact 1: Homegrown Leader with Unmatched Grassroots Experience
Senator Alli’s political journey began at the grassroots level in Ibadan, where he made history in 1991 as the first democratically elected Executive Chairman of Ibadan North Local Government. This early leadership role demonstrates a deep, foundational understanding of local governance and the needs of the people, a critical asset for a state governor.
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Fact 2: Rare Combination of Top-Tier Academic and Professional Credentials
Senator Alli is not just a politician but also a distinguished legal practitioner with a Ph.D. in Legislative and Strategic Studies. His extensive education, including degrees from the University of Ibadan, combined with his fellowships from prestigious professional institutes, provides him with the analytical, legal and strategic acumen required to manage the complex affairs of Oyo State.
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Fact 3: Proven Executive Administrative Competence at the Highest State Level
His tenures as Secretary to the Oyo State Government (SSG) and later as Chief of Staff (CoS) to the Governor showcase his direct experience in the engine room of state administration.
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He has been intimately involved in policy formulation, committee leadership and the day-to-day running of the state, making him uniquely prepared to assume the governorship and hit the ground running from day one.
Fact 4: Demonstrated Executive Business Leadership with Regional Impact
As Chairman, Board of Directors of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Senator Alli was not just an administrator but a visionary economic leader. He spearheaded landmark investments such as the Cocoa Mall and Heritage Mall in Ibadan, which transformed the economic landscape of Oyo State. This proven ability to attract and drive large-scale economic development is directly transferable to governing Oyo State.
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Fact 5: Battle-Tested and Consistent Political Figure
Senator Alli’s political career spans more than three decades, weathering the annulment of his 1996 Senate election and consistently remaining a relevant and influential force. He has contested for Deputy Governor and Governor in the past, giving him a comprehensive understanding of statewide campaigns and the diverse political landscape of Oyo State. His journey demonstrates resilience, deep political networks and unwavering commitment.
Fact 6: Current, Performing Senator and Influential Figure
As the sitting Senator for Oyo South, he is actively delivering quality representation, impactful constituency projects and people-oriented legislation. He has sponsored five Bills and raised six Motions to promote development. Senator Alli has also facilitated employment for 100 constituents across Federal Government agencies.
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His role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agricultural Colleges and Research Institutions, as well as his membership in the ECOWAS Parliament, demonstrate that he is not only focused on local issues but is also equipped with a broader perspective on governance, trade and regional integration.
Fact 7: Unifying and Respected Traditional Title Holder
Senator Alli’s position as the Ekaarun Balogun of Ibadanland, one of the highest-ranking chieftaincy titles in the ancient city, signifies his deep-rooted connection to tradition and his standing as a respected community leader.
His reputation as a calm, wise, simple, relatable and inclusive bridge-builder who unites people across political, religious and ethnic divides positions him as a leader capable of fostering peace, stability and consensus across the entire state.
Oladele is the Director of Media & Publicity, Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organization.
Opinion
Oloye Lekan Alabi: Memories Ere Death Beckoned Both Caller and Called |By Wole Adejumo
Published
1 month agoon
August 7, 2026By
Mega IconThe young lady who usually delivers packaged moinmoin for members of staff who want it for lunch came in as she usually did, and after the exchange of pleasantries, I asked if she knew the difference between Ọọlẹ and Moinmoin. My colleagues looked at me strangely when I disagreed with her response that both were the same. I promised to tell her the difference later. I, however, told my colleagues the difference as explained to me by Oloye Lekan Alabi. Though a suave, urbane and sophisticated Ibadan chief, he took time to explain the similarities and differences as we prepared for the annual Oke ‘Badan Festival some years back.
He had retired from the service of Odua Investment Company Limited, where he demonstrated competence and character then, but that did not in any way diminish his encyclopaedic knowledge of history. He sat beside the Aboke, Chief Ifamapowa and some other stakeholders at the press conference heralding the ceremony that year.
My first real contact with him happened after I had written a short piece, ‘The Man Who Would Be King’, about him. Oloye, who bore the titles of Jagun Olubadan and Akogun of Lalupon agreed to have an interview. My Bureau Chief, Bola Davies (now of blessed memory) directed me to go and when I got to his office in Cocoa House, he thanked me for wishing him well. He thereafter took time to explain the Olubadan ascension system. The interview was published in one of the earliest editions of City People Quarterly back then. That interview and some other things I wrote about him eventually earned me a mention in one of his books.
Oloye Alabi was no doubt an aficionado when history, music and culture are up for discussion. Of course, with his rich cultural heritage, he stood out anywhere and everywhere. Little wonder His Imperial Majesty, the Ooni of Ife hosted his investiture when he was appointed as the first Cultural Ambassador of the National Museum, Ile Ife. His immense breadth of knowledge will give him a place in history just as it did to the likes of Chiefs John Adeyemi Ayorinde, Theophilus Akinyele and Alaafin Lamidi Adeyemi III. His love for good music too was more than obvious. Like a true connoisseur, he did everything with class and style. He wrote countless articles about Chief Commander Ebenezer Obey, King Sunny Ade, Chief Eddy Okonta and many more. His love for Yusuf Olatunji’s Sakara music defied competent description. It was so great that he named his youngest son after the Sakara legend.
In one of his many philosophical volumes, ‘Baba L’Egba’ as Olatunji was fondly called, sang that “o ye ka ni ‘fura taa ba nsin ale eni lo” (one should be watchful when seeing off a concubine) and the only person I felt I could ask what was on Baba L’Egba’s mind then was Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Sadly, the auspicious time to ask never came.
A reception was once hosted in his honour by Ambassador Ibironke Adefope at Bodija and it was regal! Everyone who mattered came to honour Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Reporting the event for City People then, one of the most unusual sights was Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, the then Deputy Governor of Oyo State. His simplicity was indescribable. Aside driving his convertible BMW, he came in a yellow sweatshirt and jeans.
And when he turned 60, it was like everyone else joined the Ibadan establishment to celebrate Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Aare Arisekola Also spoke about the celebrant in glowing terms as he emphasized that Oloye Alabi was indeed a man destined for greatness. The party afforded me the opportunity of seeing Alhaja Batile Alake live on stage. Her sonorous voice actually brought great childhood memories of when songs of Batile Alake, Olubowale Ajasco, Alalaye Ilorin and others were regular on the television.
Apart from his respectable dress sense and indepth knowledge of issues, other admirable traits of the late Abese Olubadan were his timeliness and punctuality. He once told me the story of how he had suggested that card be presented to the then military President, General Ibrahim Babangida on the birth of his baby girl back then. It turned out that the picture of where he handed the card over was published in dailies the following day. Apart from personal discipline, working with four Governors of Oyo State obviously rubbed off on him, he never attended an event late. There was a day we had to apologize as we started an event behind schedule at the Premier Hotel, Ibadan. He was about the first guest and after accepting our apologies, he didn’t become vexatious, rather, with a smile he told us that he would be in his room upstairs. He said all we needed to do was put call through to him when we were ready to start the programme.
I stood close by him at certain event and heard Chief Lateef Oyelade praying for Oloye Alabi who had just greeted him in Yoruba, he said “Olubadan o kan o” (may it be your turn to become the Olubadan). Like many of his mentees, I looked forward to seeing him on the exalted Olubadan throne, it was however not to be.
Reflecting on those golden days of celebrity journalism; the Bodija reception, the grand 60th birthday, the laughter of legends now silent; one is reminded that time eventually beckons both the caller and the called. Bola Davies, His Excellency, Otunba Alao-Akala, Aare Arisekola Alao, Chief Lateef Oyelade, Ambassador Adefope and now Oloye himself have all answered that ultimate call. Though the exalted Olubadan throne eluded him, Oloye ’Lekan Alabi leaves behind a legacy as towering as Cocoa House itself. Like his noble forebears – Oyetunde Olundegun, ‘Erin o P’ojo Logun’, and Ekerin Suberu Ajengbe, he came, he saw, he lived with unmatched panache, and he left an indelible mark on the sands of time.
Adejumo sent this piece from Ogbomoso
Opinion
Beyond Deportations: What South Africa’s Immigration Crisis Reveals About Nationhood and Economic Frustration
Published
2 months agoon
July 9, 2026By
Mega IconThe popular saying that “one good turn deserves another” appears increasingly absent from present-day South Africa’s national consciousness. It is difficult not to ask whether many South Africans have forgotten the history of their country’s liberation and the immense sacrifices made by Nigeria and other African nations in the long struggle against apartheid.
For days, I have been deeply troubled by reports of South Africa’s worsening immigration crisis and the forceful, vigilante-style eviction of African migrants, particularly Nigerians. Beyond the headlines are broken families, shattered dreams and livelihoods painstakingly built over many years. It is a painful development that should concern every African who once believed in the ideals of continental solidarity.
Anti-immigrant sentiments in South Africa are not new. For more than two decades, campaigns against foreign nationals have been fuelled by high unemployment, widespread poverty, rising crime and frustration over inadequate public services. Many South Africans believe undocumented immigrants compete with them for jobs, housing, healthcare and social services, thereby denying citizens access to these basic necessities.
Yet, available evidence tells a more complex story. Research has consistently shown that immigrants alone cannot be blamed for South Africa’s economic and social challenges. Reducing such deep-rooted problems to the presence of foreign nationals oversimplifies a crisis that has been decades in the making.
What is often overlooked is the country’s structural economic reality. A significant skills mismatch, coupled with weaknesses in the quality of education, has left many job seekers ill-equipped for the demands of an economy increasingly driven by technology, innovation and specialised skills. This challenge is not peculiar to South Africa. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, thousands of graduates enter the labour market every year without the technical, vocational and digital competencies employers now demand.
Beyond this, crime, insecurity, systemic corruption and poor governance continue to weigh heavily on South Africa’s economy. The country has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world. Persistent violent crime discourages investment, while corruption and the mismanagement of public resources have weakened service delivery, slowed infrastructure development and eroded investor confidence.
Equally significant is the enduring legacy of apartheid. More than three decades after democracy, inequalities in education, housing, infrastructure and economic opportunities remain deeply entrenched. Many Black communities still live with the consequences of decades of institutional discrimination and economic exclusion.
Against this backdrop, blaming undocumented immigrants for South Africa’s economic difficulties amounts to little more than scapegoating. It is a convenient narrative that diverts attention from the country’s more fundamental governance and developmental challenges.
The recurring xenophobic attacks against Nigerians and other African nationals make the situation even more painful. The recent killing of Emeka Iroegbu and Musa Yunana Joe on June 28, 2026, amid rising anti-migrant tensions, is a tragic reminder of how dangerous such sentiments can become.
One cannot help but ask: Is this the same South Africa for which Nigeria and many other African countries stood firmly during the anti-apartheid struggle?
I vividly remember growing up in the 1980s, listening to songs such as Free Mandela and Stop Apartheid in South Africa by iconic Nigerian musicians, including Majek Fashek, Onyeka Onwenu and Sonny Okosun. Those songs dominated the airwaves on NTA and became powerful symbols of African solidarity.
As a child, I even believed Nelson Mandela was Nigerian because Nigerians embraced his cause with such passion.
Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and became South Africa’s first Black President in 1994, bringing an end to decades of institutionalised racial segregation and apartheid. Today, just over three decades later, many Africans who once stood shoulder to shoulder with South Africans in their darkest hour are treated as unwelcome strangers.
History can be painfully ironic.
Perhaps, then, the saying that one good turn deserves another does not always reflect reality. Human beings are capable of repaying kindness with hostility. It is an uncomfortable truth, but one that life repeatedly teaches.
At a personal level, this reminds us to live with fewer expectations and strive for greater self-reliance. A heart that expects little, even after giving much, is less likely to be broken.
At the national level, however, the lesson is far more profound. Nigeria must build a country where its citizens can thrive without feeling compelled to seek survival elsewhere. Studies have shown that the overwhelming motivation behind the Japa phenomenon is the search for better opportunities and improved living conditions. If those opportunities existed at home, many Nigerians would gladly remain and contribute to national development.
The experience in South Africa—and, indeed, recent developments in the United States—demonstrates that immigration policies are shaped by changing political realities. No foreign country offers permanent guarantees.
Although the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to abolish birthright citizenship on constitutional grounds, the episode illustrates that even long-established policies can become subjects of political contestation. A constitutional principle that has existed since 1868 could still become a matter of national debate. That alone should remind us that every nation ultimately prioritises its own interests.
The enduring lesson is simple: no country can offer Nigerians greater long-term security than a well-governed Nigeria.
Nigeria’s greatest asset remains its people. Sustainable national prosperity can only be built through visionary leadership, accountable institutions, respect for the rule of law and responsible citizenship. When government creates an enabling environment and citizens embrace innovation, productivity and accountability, Nigeria can become a destination for investment rather than a source of economic migration.
As dozens of Nigerians return home following their repatriation from South Africa, government must move beyond sympathy and symbolic gestures. Some have returned with nothing more than the clothes they wore and a single travelling bag, leaving behind businesses, investments and years of hard work. Their return is not merely a journey home; for many, it is the painful collapse of dreams painstakingly built over decades. They deserve meaningful support to rebuild their lives and contribute productively to the nation’s economy once again.
History teaches that nations are strengthened not by chasing away strangers but by creating opportunities for their own citizens. Nigeria must therefore draw the right lessons from South Africa’s painful experience. Rather than exporting its brightest minds in search of survival, it should become a country where talent is rewarded, enterprise is encouraged and hope no longer requires a passport. Only then will Nigeria become not merely the giant of Africa by population, but by the quality of life it offers its people.
Olusegun Hassan, Ph.D
Public Policy Analyst and Social Commentator
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