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Harris Leads Trump 44% to 42% in New Poll

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Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week’s poll before his Sunday exit from the race.

The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted the nomination and Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.

Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.

Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.

While nationwide surveys give important signals of American support for political candidates, a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.

A pollster with Trump’s campaign played down any polling showing an increase in Harris’ support, arguing that she was likely to see a temporary rise in popularity because of widespread media coverage of her new candidacy.

“That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo circulated to reporters by Trump’s campaign.

Candidates often expect a bump after formally accepting their party’s nomination at stage-managed, televised conventions such as the one that Trump had last week. But the poll showed no sign of that.

Bump or not, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll underscored the rationale for Biden dropping out of the race and for Harris replacing him on the ticket.

HARRIS SEEN AS SHARPER THAN BIDEN, TRUMP

Some 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.

Only 22% of voters assessed Biden that way.

Biden, 81, ended his reelection effort after a debate with Trump in which he often stammered and failed to aggressively challenge attacks by Trump that included falsehoods.

Some 80% of Democratic voters said they viewed Biden favorably, compared to 91% who said the same of Harris. Three quarters of Democratic voters said they agreed with a statement that the party and voters should get behind Harris now, with only a quarter saying multiple candidates should compete for the party’s nomination.

When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of error. Kennedy, favored by 8% of voters in the poll, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

Harris campaigned in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin on Tuesday. She won support from major party figures and attention has since turned to who she will pick as her running mate.

Many respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they knew nothing about the Democrats seen as potential picks to join Harris’ ticket.

About one in four registered voters said they had never heard of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former Democratic presidential candidate who had the highest favorability rating – 37% – of the potential Harris running mates in the poll.

One in three had not heard of California Governor Gavin Newsom, with about the same share saying they looked on him favorably. Half of registered voters in the poll had never heard of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and two thirds knew nothing of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.

The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters.

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Politics

2027: APC Perfects Consensus Strategy for Oyo

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Ahead of the 2027 general elections, the national leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on Tuesday held a high-level strategic meeting with the Oyo State chapter of the party as part of efforts to reposition the APC for victory and prevent internal crisis ahead of the polls.

The development was first scooped by OYOINSIGHT.COM which quoted multiple party sources familiar with the closed-door deliberations.

Sources disclosed that the meeting, held in Abuja, focused largely on a consensus arrangement being considered by stakeholders of the party in Oyo State, in line with political templates reportedly being adopted in Lagos and Ogun states ahead of the next electoral cycle.

Party insiders said the move was aimed at strengthening unity within the fold of the opposition party in the state, minimising rancour during the primaries and presenting a formidable front against rival parties in 2027.

It was further gathered that some members of the state executive committee may have been subtly informed about preferred consensus candidates being considered for elective positions across the state.

Though details of the deliberations were still sketchy as of press time, sources hinted that the national leadership stressed the need for cohesion, discipline and strategic alignment among stakeholders to improve the party’s electoral fortunes in Oyo.

Those at the meeting included the Oyo APC Chairman, Moses Alake Adeyemo; the state secretary, Fatai Adesina Adeniyi; the Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare; the Organising Secretary, Aderemi Adepoju; and the Legal Adviser, Sunday Aborisade.

Others were the Women Leader, Adekemi Opatunde; the Youth Leader, Olalekan Oladejo; Joshua Oyebamiji; Tunde Oloyede; Sunday Babalola; Joseph Omoniyi; and Mojeed Adebayo.

As of the time of filing this report, the party had yet to issue an official statement on the outcome of the meeting.

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2027: Oyo APC Set for Credible Direct Primaries, Says Alake Adeyemo

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The Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State, Chief Moses Alake Adeyemo, on Monday assured aspirants and party members that the party would conduct transparent, peaceful and credible direct primaries ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Adeyemo declared that no aspirant would be victimised or denied a level playing field, stressing that the party leadership remained committed to internal democracy and progressive ideals.

The former deputy governor spoke while receiving members of the APC Screening and Appeal Committees deployed from the party’s National Secretariat in Abuja at the APC Secretariat in Oke-Ado, Ibadan.

He disclosed that although the party initially explored consensus arrangements across elective positions, prevailing realities indicated that direct primaries would be conducted in some areas, including the governorship contest.

Adeyemo said the party had already put necessary structures in place to ensure a hitch-free exercise capable of strengthening unity within the APC.

He said: “We set machineries in motion for us to achieve the aim of consensus across board but reports available to me indicate that we would have to go by the second option which is direct primary in certain cases including the governorship ticket.

“To this end, we shall work towards organising free, fair and credible exercise in all the affected areas even as we cannot rule out the possibility of some aspirants having a rethink and supporting the consensus arrangement as necessary.

“Where we have more than an aspirant, Abuja would send people to conduct primaries and we at the state level would provide the required support to make everything work out in the interest of our great party.”

The APC chairman explained that all registered party members would participate fully in the exercise at their respective wards on dates to be announced by the National Secretariat.

According to him, affirmation would be adopted in areas where consensus candidates emerge, while voting would be conducted wherever direct primaries become necessary.

“For consensus, members will lend their voices for affirmation while voting will be done in the cases of direct primary,” he added.

Speaking earlier, Chairman of the Screening Committee and former Speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Taofiq AbdusSalam, assured party faithful that the committee would carry out a thorough, transparent and unbiased screening process.

He said only eligible aspirants would be cleared to participate in the primaries and eventually fly the APC flag in the forthcoming elections.

Other members of the Screening Committee are Kamal Sanusi (Secretary), Smart Oluwole, Tunde Kolade and Olabamiji Agunloye.

Members of the Screening Appeal Committee are Jibola Oduwole (Chairman), Abimbola Jack (Secretary) and Jelil Jimoh.

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NDC zones 2027 presidency to South, reserves 2031 for North

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The Nigeria Democratic Congress on Saturday zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria, declaring that the party’s candidate would serve a single four-year term if elected.

The decision was reached during the party’s national convention held in Abuja amid growing momentum within the opposition platform following a wave of high-profile defections from other political parties.

Announcing the development on its official social media handle, the party stated, “NDC presidential ticket is zoned to the South!!”

The party also resolved that its 2031 presidential ticket would be ceded to Northern Nigeria as part of efforts to maintain regional balance and internal equity.

The convention comes as key opposition figures, including former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former New Nigeria People’s Party presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, joined party leaders and delegates at the Abuja gathering.

Saturday’s convention is expected to ratify several recent decisions taken by the party’s National Executive Committee, including zoning arrangements, amendments to the party constitution, and the election of new national executives.

According to the convention agenda obtained by journalists, discussions centred on zoning, ratification of the amended constitution, and leadership restructuring ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The NDC has in recent weeks witnessed a surge in defections from rival opposition parties, particularly the African Democratic Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party.

On Tuesday, no fewer than 17 members of the House of Representatives defected from the ADC to the NDC.

Their defections were formally announced during plenary at the House of Representatives.

The lawmakers include Yusuf Datti, Uchenna Okonkwo, Adamu Wakili, Thaddeus Attah, George Ozodinobi, Lilian Orogbu, Oluwaseyi Sowunmi, Peter Aniekwe, Mukhtar Zakari, George Oluwande and Munachim Umezuruike.
Others are Emeka Idu, Jesse Onuakalusi, Ifeanyi Uzokwe, Afam Ogene, Murphy Omoruyi and Abdulhakeem Ado.
The defections came barely two days after Obi and Kwankwaso formally joined the NDC from the ADC.

The duo were presented with the party’s membership cards last Sunday shortly after a closed-door meeting with party leaders.

A former Governor of Bayelsa State and NDC national leader, Seriake Dickson, officially welcomed the opposition figures into the party.

Obi had attributed his exit from the ADC to worsening internal crises, external interference and what he described as increasing hostility within party structures.

The former Anambra State governor said Nigeria’s political environment had become increasingly toxic, marked by intimidation, insecurity and sustained scrutiny of opposition figures.

He also lamented that institutions meant to protect citizens were now often deployed against them, while individuals committed to genuine public service faced mounting pressure both publicly and privately.

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