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Elections: Lessons from Oyo to Nigeria

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The ides of March are come,” Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar says in utter derision and dismissal of a life-and-death warning. And the soothsayer replies “Ay, Caesar; but not gone.” And truly, they were not gone. The 2023 elections should be over by now but they are not. There are people everywhere mocking poets and prophets. Clouds of uncertainty are hanging. Even our president has had to issue a statement denying saying in secret that he won’t hand over to his victorious Khalifa. There are threats of protests and counter-threats of arrest over the process and the outcome of the presidential election held over a month ago. Labour Party’s vice presidential candidate vowed on national TV that the president-elect won’t be sworn in; the election winner replied with a vow to arrest and lock up Labour and its symbols even before he is sworn in. There was a dream: What does it mean to have flooded in a dry land? You sleep and see two hundred elephants clinking tusks; you also see two hundred buffalos pooling together with four hundred horns. If the inner eye is still seeing, you will know that the world is shifting and drifting – or about to. Confusion and chaos are ingredients of war and they appear afoot. Since that is the case, what I look for now are streaks of hope, to keep my sanity.

My ancestors in Old Oyo said with pride – and even arrogance – that they were different from other species in the specificity of their character and characteristics. “You can only hear of Oyo imitators; Oyo does not imitate anybody.” Their neighbours never liked hearing that from them but they never stopped acting it and shouting it from their rooftops. The 2023 elections may not be over in Abuja and other states but the governorship election is over in Oyo State and that is where I hang my consolation and escape from Nigeria’s current madness. There was an election to elect the governor of Oyo State on Saturday, March 18. INEC announced a winner and everyone who fought the victor immediately dropped the sword and embraced the victorious. I found that to be very strange in rancorous Nigeria. If you know any other state in Nigeria where that has happened, please tell me. There is even no imitator. But why?

I read a cartoon in a national newspaper when I was in secondary school. The newspaper I cannot remember, but the cartoon and its caption I cannot ever forget: A former president, Nnamdi Azikiwe, is shown counselling a victorious young politician on power and its ephemerality. “My son,” the ex-leader says with sadness, “I have been to the mountaintop; it is quite slippery there.” What makes the mountaintop that slippery? Because I work and live in Ibadan, three days before the March 18 governorship election in Oyo State, a senior newspaper editor in Lagos sent me a text: “What are the chances of the incumbent?” I replied that “the man respects the people and has done well all around, so, he will win with more than 60 per cent of the votes.” He kept quiet and left me with my “unrealistic projection.” After the results were announced on Sunday 19th, that editor sent me another text: “You said so. He won. Great. I was scared for him.” I replied with the smile emoji and added that the winner “did not leave the street for a day”; he knew the terrain and served it and so could not have slipped on Election Day.

Eleven incumbent governors contested elections to retain their seats for four more years; one of them lost and has been very quiet; another is still fighting to breathe; eight won with a lot of panting and limping back home from the battlefield; the man in Oyo has been congratulated by all his opponents. So, what made the re-election way smooth for one and bumpy for others? There was a 14th-century Islamic scholar called Ibn Khaldun, author of the Muqaddimah. Some scholars say he was the greatest social scientist of the Middle Ages; others say he was “the father of historiography, sociology, economics, and demography studies.” Ibn Khaldun propounded a theory of leadership which states how leaders emerge through blood ties and group feelings. He calls that process Asabiyyah. But it is not enough for a leader to emerge; how about the sustenance of that leadership? It is that sustenance that presidents and governors seek in the name of second-term ambitions. But not all who seek to stand. Why is the mountaintop slippery? Ibn Khaldun had an answer. He came up with a list of what he called the personal qualities of a leader – the “perfecting details” that sustain leadership. What are those details? He said they include “generosity, the forgiveness of error, patience, and perseverance, hospitality towards guests, maintenance of the indigent, patience in unpleasant situations, execution of commitments, respect for the religious law, reverence for old men and teachers, fairness, meekness, consideration to the needs of followers, adherence to the obligations of religious laws, and avoidance of deception and fraud.” (See Ibn Khaldun of North Africa: An AD 1377 Theory of Leadership (2008) by Yusuf Sidani).

The man who wrote the list above died on 17 March 1406; that was 617 years ago. Now, look at the menu again. Which of the “details” is not desirable in a leader today, six centuries after the theorizer died? Do you think a man would have those attributes and be rejected by his people? Which of the items there was not demanded by voters in the last election? My people say that what money cannot buy, good character (ìwà rere) will get for you free of charge. Father of contemporary Yoruba theatre, Chief Hubert Ogunde, in one of his songs, prayed to his Maker to give him a good head and a pair of good legs. Bí mo l’órí ire, Elédàá, jé kí nl’ésè ire. Luck makes some people leaders, but their lack of character soon destroys their good heads. Every Ibn Khaldun perfecting detail you read above was a factor in the last election in every state across the country. The fewer a contestant had in his basket, the more difficult it was for the people to embrace him. That was why some lost their deposit in that election and some others had to break into the strong room of the people’s mandate by altering result sheets and robbing the law of its teeth. Some resorted to buying or breaking voters; some had to kill and maim to force in their win – something armed robbers do and get shot for.

I do not know who gave Oyo State its “Pacesetter” appellation; neither do I know the composer of its vaunting anthem that proclaims it as the Asiwaju of Nigerian states. But I know it has provided leadership in the 2023 election with the post-election conduct of its leaders across all parties. Nigeria should ask questions and learn from that state and how its governor calmly got a second term. The incumbent got all the critical divides at his back on Election Day, and this included those who voted for Peter Obi on February 25. The Igbo who voted in Oyo shouted ‘Nwanne’ while counting the votes of the incumbent – I watched a video clip. For once, we found a needle and a thread to suture the ruptured tendons of Nigeria in the little corner of that state. The incumbent governor, Mr Seyi Makinde, won; his main challengers, Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC and Adebayo Adelabu of the Accord party wasted no time before congratulating him. Their powerful backers did the same. I saw grace and poise in the winner embracing the defeated; I saw dignity in the losers knowing when to apply the brakes by hugging the man who levelled them. Brazilian novelist, Paulo Coelho, once wrote that “it is always important to know when something has reached its end. Closing circles, shutting doors, finishing chapters, it doesn’t matter what we call it; what matters is to leave in the past those moments in life that are over.” Those who drew the curtain in Oyo State did so after a thorough review of the process and the outcome. They were satisfied that they truly lost and were honourable enough to move on. If there was a theft, the owner definitely won’t congratulate the winner. In other states and at the federal level, circles are still unclosed and doors of electoral acrimony are still ajar. We should understand. It cannot be over where justice suffered violence and where justice has served only the powerful. William Shakespeare says in King Lear that “nothing can come of nothing.” That is why we hear cries of plots and counterplots toward May 29, 2023. And, in several states, the dust of war is still up and blinding; swords remain unsheathed as the campaigns appear moving to the Philippi – the spot where noble Brutus and the ghost of Caesar fought their last battle.

This country is like the ouroboros, a serpent eating its tail; a dragon continually devouring itself. Ancient Egypt created the myth and its symbol and passed them on to Ancient Greece. Centuries later, the Norse created a myth of their serpent, the Jörmungandr, and got it to encircle the world with its tail in its mouth. The president-elect has that self-constricting emblem on his cap. It is an endless twerk of creation and destruction. Contests for power in Nigeria forever move on like that, slithering and serpentine and encircling. That is why the inferno of an election lit over a month ago is still burning. It is the reason there won’t be an end to the confusion of Nigeria with its drama plots and sub-plots driven by ethnic and religious baits. Baiters are persons who intentionally make someone angry. They are out trying to tie the forehead furs of the Igbo tiger to the occipital hairs of the Yoruba lion. We saw them in some southern states, but I refer here to excusers of criminality in the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) who at the weekend tried to smuggle their habitual defence of criminal herdsmen into the crisis of this election season. The ACF stated the political tension in the South, mocking the East, and deriding the West; it then veered off to valorize banditry and terrorism. It claimed there was no evidence linking their bandits to killings and kidnappings in southern forests. This is what the ACF wrote: “In the wake of the ethnic crisis, Yoruba and Igbo partisans freely profile one another and accuse themselves of criminal conduct, including as cheats, bandits, kidnappers, land-grabbers, etc.” That list of insults is a concoction from the ACF. The rhetoric down south is bad, very bad, but it has not reached the level itemized by the northern mouthpiece. The ACF did not stop there; it doubled down with an errant defence of its bandits: “Ironically, ethnic profiling and accusations of criminality without evidence have always been levelled against hapless northerners, especially the so-called herders or economic migrants, by the South and mostly supported by the press. They stigmatized northerners, convicting them for offences they know nothing about. Northerners were forced to live under the shadow of guilt and criminality without trial. Perpetrators of these injustices couldn’t have known that a day such as this would come when they will inflict injustice not on northerners but against one another.” Imagine that! What are we saying, what are they saying? Do not blame them for the watery gbègìrì; blame the thieving goat that ate the southern beans. Was it not Mamman Vatsa who warned that the day you start mocking yourself, others will join you? We will keep engaging them until Nigeria is weaned of snakes and predators; they will not prevail.

 

Dr Lasisi Olagunju, a celebrated columnist writes from Ibadan, Oyo state

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Seven Factors That Keep Sharafadeen Alli Ahead in 2027 Oyo Governorship Race

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File photo of Sen. Sarafadeen Alli

 

Fact 1: Homegrown Leader with Unmatched Grassroots Experience

Senator Alli’s political journey began at the grassroots level in Ibadan, where he made history in 1991 as the first democratically elected Executive Chairman of Ibadan North Local Government. This early leadership role demonstrates a deep, foundational understanding of local governance and the needs of the people, a critical asset for a state governor.

Fact 2: Rare Combination of Top-Tier Academic and Professional Credentials

Senator Alli is not just a politician but also a distinguished legal practitioner with a Ph.D. in Legislative and Strategic Studies. His extensive education, including degrees from the University of Ibadan, combined with his fellowships from prestigious professional institutes, provides him with the analytical, legal and strategic acumen required to manage the complex affairs of Oyo State.

Fact 3: Proven Executive Administrative Competence at the Highest State Level

His tenures as Secretary to the Oyo State Government (SSG) and later as Chief of Staff (CoS) to the Governor showcase his direct experience in the engine room of state administration.

 

He has been intimately involved in policy formulation, committee leadership and the day-to-day running of the state, making him uniquely prepared to assume the governorship and hit the ground running from day one.

Fact 4: Demonstrated Executive Business Leadership with Regional Impact

As Chairman, Board of Directors of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Senator Alli was not just an administrator but a visionary economic leader. He spearheaded landmark investments such as the Cocoa Mall and Heritage Mall in Ibadan, which transformed the economic landscape of Oyo State. This proven ability to attract and drive large-scale economic development is directly transferable to governing Oyo State.

Fact 5: Battle-Tested and Consistent Political Figure

Senator Alli’s political career spans more than three decades, weathering the annulment of his 1996 Senate election and consistently remaining a relevant and influential force. He has contested for Deputy Governor and Governor in the past, giving him a comprehensive understanding of statewide campaigns and the diverse political landscape of Oyo State. His journey demonstrates resilience, deep political networks and unwavering commitment.

Fact 6: Current, Performing Senator and Influential Figure

As the sitting Senator for Oyo South, he is actively delivering quality representation, impactful constituency projects and people-oriented legislation. He has sponsored five Bills and raised six Motions to promote development. Senator Alli has also facilitated employment for 100 constituents across Federal Government agencies.

His role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agricultural Colleges and Research Institutions, as well as his membership in the ECOWAS Parliament, demonstrate that he is not only focused on local issues but is also equipped with a broader perspective on governance, trade and regional integration.

Fact 7: Unifying and Respected Traditional Title Holder

Senator Alli’s position as the Ekaarun Balogun of Ibadanland, one of the highest-ranking chieftaincy titles in the ancient city, signifies his deep-rooted connection to tradition and his standing as a respected community leader.

His reputation as a calm, wise, simple, relatable and inclusive bridge-builder who unites people across political, religious and ethnic divides positions him as a leader capable of fostering peace, stability and consensus across the entire state.

 

Oladele is the Director of Media & Publicity, Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organization.

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Oloye Lekan Alabi: Memories Ere Death Beckoned Both Caller and Called |By Wole Adejumo  

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The young lady who usually delivers packaged moinmoin for members of staff who want it for lunch came in as she usually did, and after the exchange of pleasantries, I asked if she knew the difference between Ọọlẹ and Moinmoin. My colleagues looked at me strangely when I disagreed with her response that both were the same. I promised to tell her the difference later. I, however, told my colleagues the difference as explained to me by Oloye Lekan Alabi. Though a suave, urbane and sophisticated Ibadan chief,  he took time to explain the similarities and differences as we prepared for the annual Oke ‘Badan Festival some years back.  

He had retired from the service of Odua Investment Company Limited, where he demonstrated competence  and character then, but that did not in any way diminish his encyclopaedic knowledge of history. He sat beside the Aboke, Chief Ifamapowa and some other stakeholders at the press conference heralding the ceremony that year.

My first real contact with him happened after I had written a short piece, ‘The Man Who Would Be King’, about him. Oloye, who bore the titles of Jagun Olubadan and  Akogun of Lalupon agreed to have an interview. My Bureau Chief, Bola Davies (now of blessed memory) directed me to go and when I got to his office in Cocoa House, he thanked me for wishing him well. He thereafter took time to explain the Olubadan ascension system. The interview was published in one of the earliest editions of City People Quarterly back then. That interview and some other things I wrote about him eventually earned me a mention in one of his books.

Oloye Alabi was no doubt an aficionado when history, music and culture are up for discussion. Of course, with his rich cultural heritage, he stood out anywhere and everywhere. Little wonder His Imperial Majesty, the Ooni of Ife hosted his investiture when he was appointed as the first Cultural Ambassador of the National Museum, Ile Ife. His immense breadth of knowledge will give him a place in history just as it did to the likes of Chiefs John Adeyemi Ayorinde, Theophilus Akinyele and Alaafin Lamidi Adeyemi III. His love for good music too was more than obvious. Like a true connoisseur, he did everything with class and style. He wrote countless articles about Chief Commander Ebenezer Obey, King Sunny Ade, Chief Eddy Okonta and many more. His love for Yusuf Olatunji’s Sakara music defied competent description. It was so great that he named his youngest son after the Sakara legend.

In one of his many philosophical volumes, ‘Baba L’Egba’ as Olatunji was fondly called, sang that “o ye ka ni ‘fura taa ba nsin ale eni lo” (one should be watchful when seeing off a concubine) and the only person I felt I could ask what was on Baba L’Egba’s mind then was Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Sadly, the auspicious time to ask never came.

A reception was once hosted in his honour by Ambassador Ibironke Adefope at Bodija and it was regal! Everyone who mattered came to honour Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Reporting the event for City People then, one of the most unusual sights was Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, the then Deputy Governor of Oyo State. His simplicity was indescribable. Aside driving his convertible BMW, he came in a yellow sweatshirt and jeans.

And when he turned 60, it was like everyone else joined the Ibadan establishment to celebrate Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Aare Arisekola Also spoke about the celebrant in glowing terms as he emphasized that Oloye Alabi was indeed a man destined for greatness. The party afforded me the opportunity of seeing Alhaja Batile Alake live on stage. Her sonorous voice actually brought great childhood memories of when songs of Batile Alake, Olubowale Ajasco, Alalaye Ilorin and others were regular on the television.

Apart from his respectable dress sense and indepth knowledge of issues, other admirable traits of the late Abese Olubadan were his timeliness and punctuality. He once told me the story of how he had suggested that card be presented to the then military President, General Ibrahim Babangida on the birth of his baby girl back then. It turned out that the picture of where he handed the card  over was published in dailies the following day. Apart from personal discipline, working with four Governors of Oyo State obviously rubbed off on him, he never attended an event late. There was a day we had to apologize as we started an event behind schedule at the Premier Hotel, Ibadan. He was about the first guest  and after accepting our apologies, he didn’t become vexatious, rather, with a smile he told us that he would be in his room upstairs. He said all we needed to do was put  call through to him when we were ready to start the programme.

I stood close by him at certain event and heard Chief Lateef Oyelade praying for Oloye Alabi who had just greeted him in Yoruba, he said “Olubadan o kan o” (may it be your turn to become the Olubadan). Like many of his mentees,  I looked forward to seeing him on the exalted Olubadan throne, it was however not to be.

​Reflecting on those golden days of celebrity journalism; the Bodija reception, the grand 60th birthday, the laughter of legends now silent; one is reminded that time eventually beckons both the caller and the called. Bola Davies, His Excellency, Otunba Alao-Akala, Aare Arisekola Alao, Chief Lateef Oyelade, Ambassador Adefope and now Oloye himself have all answered that ultimate call. Though the exalted Olubadan throne eluded him, Oloye ’Lekan Alabi leaves behind a legacy as towering as Cocoa House itself. Like his noble forebears – Oyetunde Olundegun, ‘Erin o P’ojo Logun’, and Ekerin Suberu Ajengbe, he came, he saw, he lived with unmatched panache, and he left an indelible mark on the sands of time.

 

Adejumo sent this piece from Ogbomoso 

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Beyond Deportations: What South Africa’s Immigration Crisis Reveals About Nationhood and Economic Frustration

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The popular saying that “one good turn deserves another” appears increasingly absent from present-day South Africa’s national consciousness. It is difficult not to ask whether many South Africans have forgotten the history of their country’s liberation and the immense sacrifices made by Nigeria and other African nations in the long struggle against apartheid.

For days, I have been deeply troubled by reports of South Africa’s worsening immigration crisis and the forceful, vigilante-style eviction of African migrants, particularly Nigerians. Beyond the headlines are broken families, shattered dreams and livelihoods painstakingly built over many years. It is a painful development that should concern every African who once believed in the ideals of continental solidarity.

Anti-immigrant sentiments in South Africa are not new. For more than two decades, campaigns against foreign nationals have been fuelled by high unemployment, widespread poverty, rising crime and frustration over inadequate public services. Many South Africans believe undocumented immigrants compete with them for jobs, housing, healthcare and social services, thereby denying citizens access to these basic necessities.

Yet, available evidence tells a more complex story. Research has consistently shown that immigrants alone cannot be blamed for South Africa’s economic and social challenges. Reducing such deep-rooted problems to the presence of foreign nationals oversimplifies a crisis that has been decades in the making.

What is often overlooked is the country’s structural economic reality. A significant skills mismatch, coupled with weaknesses in the quality of education, has left many job seekers ill-equipped for the demands of an economy increasingly driven by technology, innovation and specialised skills. This challenge is not peculiar to South Africa. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, thousands of graduates enter the labour market every year without the technical, vocational and digital competencies employers now demand.

Beyond this, crime, insecurity, systemic corruption and poor governance continue to weigh heavily on South Africa’s economy. The country has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world. Persistent violent crime discourages investment, while corruption and the mismanagement of public resources have weakened service delivery, slowed infrastructure development and eroded investor confidence.

Equally significant is the enduring legacy of apartheid. More than three decades after democracy, inequalities in education, housing, infrastructure and economic opportunities remain deeply entrenched. Many Black communities still live with the consequences of decades of institutional discrimination and economic exclusion.

Against this backdrop, blaming undocumented immigrants for South Africa’s economic difficulties amounts to little more than scapegoating. It is a convenient narrative that diverts attention from the country’s more fundamental governance and developmental challenges.

The recurring xenophobic attacks against Nigerians and other African nationals make the situation even more painful. The recent killing of Emeka Iroegbu and Musa Yunana Joe on June 28, 2026, amid rising anti-migrant tensions, is a tragic reminder of how dangerous such sentiments can become.

One cannot help but ask: Is this the same South Africa for which Nigeria and many other African countries stood firmly during the anti-apartheid struggle?
I vividly remember growing up in the 1980s, listening to songs such as Free Mandela and Stop Apartheid in South Africa by iconic Nigerian musicians, including Majek Fashek, Onyeka Onwenu and Sonny Okosun. Those songs dominated the airwaves on NTA and became powerful symbols of African solidarity.

As a child, I even believed Nelson Mandela was Nigerian because Nigerians embraced his cause with such passion.
Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and became South Africa’s first Black President in 1994, bringing an end to decades of institutionalised racial segregation and apartheid. Today, just over three decades later, many Africans who once stood shoulder to shoulder with South Africans in their darkest hour are treated as unwelcome strangers.
History can be painfully ironic.

Perhaps, then, the saying that one good turn deserves another does not always reflect reality. Human beings are capable of repaying kindness with hostility. It is an uncomfortable truth, but one that life repeatedly teaches.

At a personal level, this reminds us to live with fewer expectations and strive for greater self-reliance. A heart that expects little, even after giving much, is less likely to be broken.

At the national level, however, the lesson is far more profound. Nigeria must build a country where its citizens can thrive without feeling compelled to seek survival elsewhere. Studies have shown that the overwhelming motivation behind the Japa phenomenon is the search for better opportunities and improved living conditions. If those opportunities existed at home, many Nigerians would gladly remain and contribute to national development.

The experience in South Africa—and, indeed, recent developments in the United States—demonstrates that immigration policies are shaped by changing political realities. No foreign country offers permanent guarantees.

Although the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to abolish birthright citizenship on constitutional grounds, the episode illustrates that even long-established policies can become subjects of political contestation. A constitutional principle that has existed since 1868 could still become a matter of national debate. That alone should remind us that every nation ultimately prioritises its own interests.
The enduring lesson is simple: no country can offer Nigerians greater long-term security than a well-governed Nigeria.

Nigeria’s greatest asset remains its people. Sustainable national prosperity can only be built through visionary leadership, accountable institutions, respect for the rule of law and responsible citizenship. When government creates an enabling environment and citizens embrace innovation, productivity and accountability, Nigeria can become a destination for investment rather than a source of economic migration.

As dozens of Nigerians return home following their repatriation from South Africa, government must move beyond sympathy and symbolic gestures. Some have returned with nothing more than the clothes they wore and a single travelling bag, leaving behind businesses, investments and years of hard work. Their return is not merely a journey home; for many, it is the painful collapse of dreams painstakingly built over decades. They deserve meaningful support to rebuild their lives and contribute productively to the nation’s economy once again.

History teaches that nations are strengthened not by chasing away strangers but by creating opportunities for their own citizens. Nigeria must therefore draw the right lessons from South Africa’s painful experience. Rather than exporting its brightest minds in search of survival, it should become a country where talent is rewarded, enterprise is encouraged and hope no longer requires a passport. Only then will Nigeria become not merely the giant of Africa by population, but by the quality of life it offers its people.

 

Olusegun Hassan, Ph.D
Public Policy Analyst and Social Commentator

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