Opinion
Tax Revenue as Nigeria’s New ‘Crude oil’
Published
1 year agoon
Prior to Nigeria’s Independence in 1960, agriculture was the mainstay of its economy, even as reflected in the economic activities of the regions there were in the country at that time. Famous stories of the First Republic chronicled how the defunct regions were reliant on revenues from the groundnut pyramids in the north, the cocoa export receipts from the defunct west and the rubber as well as palm oil proceeds from the east.
With the discovery of crude oil in commercial quantities, beginning from Oloibiri in the present-day Bayelsa State in 1956, agriculture, over time, became supplanted by black gold in terms of contributions to the national revenue pool. Not only did crude oil receipts ride the wave as far as the total collectable revenue was concerned, but the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) became the cornerstone entity for the three tiers of government to look up to for salvation in terms of their fiscal projections.
However, those days when the federal, state and local government councils wait zealously for revenue figures from NNPC have not only receded into the past but appear to have gone for good. At the monthly meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), focus has shifted to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), the goose that is laying the golden egg for the fiscal stability and wellbeing of the federation.
For those who may not know, the ‘cake’ shared monthly by the Federation is baked by four major entities: NNPC, FIRS, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), formerly known as Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) and the Nigeria Custom Service (NCS).
Of the body of ‘bakers,’ FIRS under Zacch Adedeji has emerged as the cream of the crop, singlehandedly and aggregately accounting for close to 70 percent of the total revenues collected and shared by the three tiers of government at FAAC meetings in 2024.
Out of N2.068 trillion that accrued to the Federation Accounts in January 2024, tax collected by FIRS accounted for more than 50 percent, with the agency’s contribution totalling N1.275 trillion. The other three revenue-remitting bodies jointly raked in the balance. While oil receipts from NNPC brought N115billion, NUPRC grossed N469.8billion, just as the Nigeria Custom Service remitted N207 billion.
The contribution of FIRS to the pool grew in February by N300 billion from what it brought to the account in January. From the N2.3 trillion that accumulated into the account, takings by FIRS amounted to N1.491 trillion, a collection figure that was more than 50 percent of the total revenue for the month. In fact, NNPC’s contribution to the pool was just N92 billion. NUPRC and NCS contributed N487 billion and N254 billion, respectively.
In March, FIRS contributed N1.061 trillion out of N1.867 trillion in the pool and in April, the Federation Account got N1.187 trillion from FIRS out of the N2.192 trillion revenue accrual. For May, out of the N2.324 trillion shared by the three tiers of government, FIRS alone contributed N1.571 trillion.
The last month in the first half of 2024 finished on a strong note for the Federation in terms of the size of the ‘cake’ available for sharing among the three tiers of government. Of the N3.5 trillion accrual in the Federation Account for the month, FIRS accounted for N2.841 trillion. Contributions from NNPC for the month was N8.3billion with NUPRC and NCS remitting N402.5billion N264 billion, respectively.
The upward trajectory of FIRS contribution to the Federation Account continued at the beginning of the second half of the year. It accounted for N2.295 trillion out of N3.508 trillion remitted into the Federation Account for July, representing 65.4 percent of the total haul. For August, the FIRS figure for FAAC was N1.87 trillion out of the N2.7 trillion in the pool. In September, October, November, and December, the agency’s contributions were N1.45trillion (out of N2.4trilion), N1.74trillion (out of N2.9), N1.56trillion (out of N2.8trillion) and N1.41trillion (out of NN2.2trillion), respectively.
The significance of FIRS contributions displacing oil receipts and turning tax revenue into the country’s new ‘crude oil’ has been well situated by the Accountant General of the Federation, Dr (Mrs) Oluwatoyin Madein. At an event in Abuja, she declared: “Tax revenue, as of today, is the highest source of revenue accruing to the Federation. Therefore, at FAAC meetings, we eagerly await the numbers coming from FIRS because the performance of the agency keeps on increasing and this brings succour to all tiers of government.”
Putting FIRS contribution to FAAC revenue pool in 2024 in context, we will see how it has helped the three tiers of government to plan, project and experience fiscal stability. There is nothing like fiscal discipline except you have accurate revenue prediction. If you say you want to spend N10, that means you must assurance that the N10 will come from somewhere. This commendable collection performance is in tandem with Adedeji’s vision of making taxation the pivot of national development.
What did FIRS do differently?
The impressive revenue collection posted by FIRS is not a product of happenstance. It is the outcome of a well-thought-out strategy and process re-engineering that formed the bedrock of a cocktail of administrative and process reforms embarked upon by the agency under Adedeji. One of his key refrains is that if FIRS is going to succeed in its critical national mandate of domestic revenue mobilisation, taxpayers must be at the centre of all policies and initiatives of the agency.
The FIRS chairman summarised the restructuring and re-orientation that powered the huge revenue collection and turned it to a customer-centric agency thus: “We restructured our operations at FIRS in such a way that we are now effectively carrying out our duty of assessing, collecting and accounting for taxes. We used to have functional types of taxes, but we have since identified that the only customers we have are the taxpayers. We have, therefore, improved the way we relate with our customers by rearranging our operations based on our customers, using their turnover as the basis to categorise them into large, medium, and emerging tax groups.
“We did this to develop expertise in what we do. Secondly, to provide them with a one-stop shop for their activities. If you are in a large tax group, you only need to go to one office to pay all forms of taxes, including conducting audit and other activities. You do not need to move from one office to another again.
“We are here to serve the taxpayers. The taxpayers are not armed robbers or criminals that we will be chasing about. FIRS is also not a law enforcement organisation. We are partners in progress. The taxpayers are the trees in our vineyard. The only thing we can do is to ensure they are well watered and well pruned so they can bear good fruits for us to have a big harvest.
Because of the streamlining of tax processes, the removal of hurdles in the way of tax payment as well placing a high premium on transparency and accountability, a total number of 182, 724 new taxpayers, representing a 25.3% increase, voluntarily enrolled on the agency’s tax administration platform called Tax Pro-Max in 2024. It is the single biggest leap in the number of firms in the tax net in the recent history of the tax agency. This not only underscores the level of trust reposed in the new processes emplaced at the agency. It also lends credence to Adedeji’s sharp vision of making the agency one of the world’s most efficient and trusted revenue authorities.
The president, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr Gabriel Idahosa, testified to the unusual transformation witnessed at FIRS. Idahosa commended the agency for conducting reforms that align with the needs of businesses, particularly singling out the increasing use of technology in tax administration as well as the shift in the mental geography of tax officers from being mere tax collectors to “actively providing services that enhance business operations.”
One key import of the unprecedented growth in tax revenue for the Federation is that the non-oil sector accounts for about 75% of the total haul. This clearly signposts the commitment of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration to truly diversify the economy from its mono-product, crude oil. According to Adedeji, all accolades for the impressive tax collection by FIRS should go to President Tinubu. Of a truth, two key policies by the president, namely the removal of fuel subsidy and unification of the exchange rate, gave fillip to the record tax revenue collection by FIRS. The negative consequences of not setting these economic fundamentals at the time President Tinubu did would have been unbearable for an economy that was already in the ICU before President Tinubu assumed office.
Despite the laudable achievements of the agency since its assumption of office in September 2023, Adedeji is not resting on his oars. He believes the success recorded so far is just a beginning, with his key fiscal focus being on growing Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 18% in the next three years. This, he believes, is achievable without putting additional burden on the taxpayers but by making the pie bigger to collect more revenue for government at all levels to be able to meet their obligations to the citizenry.
For him, there is irreducible minimum if the upward tax revenue trajectory must continue. “We can play with everything, but what we cannot afford to play with, if we are going to succeed, are data and merit,” he once said.
It needs to be said that prior to Adedeji’s leadership, the agency’s contribution to FAAC had been growing. However, the coming of Adedeji has moved the quantum significantly higher through a potpourri of internal administrative and process reforms he introduced, leading to simplifying of tax payment.
For 2025, FIRS is targeting to collect N25.2 trillion in tax revenue, and this means more money for the three tiers of government to meet their needs. This is another reason why there should be no opposition to the tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly. If FIRS could post these huge records in a short time, breaking its own records and setting higher targets and goals, a tax system that is modernised and fit for purpose can only add impetus to the task of domestic revenue mobilisation given to FIRS.
For those asking the question: where does tax revenue by FIRS go? The answer is this: every month that the federal, state and local government councils gather in Abuja for FAAC meeting and money is shared accordingly, about 70% of that money comes from the tax revenue FIRS collects from taxpayers.
For perceptive observers, President Tinubu deserves to be hailed for the huge jump in shareable FAAC allocations, which continue the upward swing since his assumption of office. All the states now collect almost three times of what they used to get as FAAC allocation prior to the coming of the Tinubu administration. Every month, managers of the three tiers smile to the banks, thanks to the President’s courageous leadership.
Adekanmbi is the Special Adviser on Media to the Executive Chairman, Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).
Opinion
Beyond Deportations: What South Africa’s Immigration Crisis Reveals About Nationhood and Economic Frustration
Published
5 days agoon
July 9, 2026By
Mega IconThe popular saying that “one good turn deserves another” appears increasingly absent from present-day South Africa’s national consciousness. It is difficult not to ask whether many South Africans have forgotten the history of their country’s liberation and the immense sacrifices made by Nigeria and other African nations in the long struggle against apartheid.
For days, I have been deeply troubled by reports of South Africa’s worsening immigration crisis and the forceful, vigilante-style eviction of African migrants, particularly Nigerians. Beyond the headlines are broken families, shattered dreams and livelihoods painstakingly built over many years. It is a painful development that should concern every African who once believed in the ideals of continental solidarity.
Anti-immigrant sentiments in South Africa are not new. For more than two decades, campaigns against foreign nationals have been fuelled by high unemployment, widespread poverty, rising crime and frustration over inadequate public services. Many South Africans believe undocumented immigrants compete with them for jobs, housing, healthcare and social services, thereby denying citizens access to these basic necessities.
Yet, available evidence tells a more complex story. Research has consistently shown that immigrants alone cannot be blamed for South Africa’s economic and social challenges. Reducing such deep-rooted problems to the presence of foreign nationals oversimplifies a crisis that has been decades in the making.
What is often overlooked is the country’s structural economic reality. A significant skills mismatch, coupled with weaknesses in the quality of education, has left many job seekers ill-equipped for the demands of an economy increasingly driven by technology, innovation and specialised skills. This challenge is not peculiar to South Africa. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, thousands of graduates enter the labour market every year without the technical, vocational and digital competencies employers now demand.
Beyond this, crime, insecurity, systemic corruption and poor governance continue to weigh heavily on South Africa’s economy. The country has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world. Persistent violent crime discourages investment, while corruption and the mismanagement of public resources have weakened service delivery, slowed infrastructure development and eroded investor confidence.
Equally significant is the enduring legacy of apartheid. More than three decades after democracy, inequalities in education, housing, infrastructure and economic opportunities remain deeply entrenched. Many Black communities still live with the consequences of decades of institutional discrimination and economic exclusion.
Against this backdrop, blaming undocumented immigrants for South Africa’s economic difficulties amounts to little more than scapegoating. It is a convenient narrative that diverts attention from the country’s more fundamental governance and developmental challenges.
The recurring xenophobic attacks against Nigerians and other African nationals make the situation even more painful. The recent killing of Emeka Iroegbu and Musa Yunana Joe on June 28, 2026, amid rising anti-migrant tensions, is a tragic reminder of how dangerous such sentiments can become.
One cannot help but ask: Is this the same South Africa for which Nigeria and many other African countries stood firmly during the anti-apartheid struggle?
I vividly remember growing up in the 1980s, listening to songs such as Free Mandela and Stop Apartheid in South Africa by iconic Nigerian musicians, including Majek Fashek, Onyeka Onwenu and Sonny Okosun. Those songs dominated the airwaves on NTA and became powerful symbols of African solidarity.
As a child, I even believed Nelson Mandela was Nigerian because Nigerians embraced his cause with such passion.
Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and became South Africa’s first Black President in 1994, bringing an end to decades of institutionalised racial segregation and apartheid. Today, just over three decades later, many Africans who once stood shoulder to shoulder with South Africans in their darkest hour are treated as unwelcome strangers.
History can be painfully ironic.
Perhaps, then, the saying that one good turn deserves another does not always reflect reality. Human beings are capable of repaying kindness with hostility. It is an uncomfortable truth, but one that life repeatedly teaches.
At a personal level, this reminds us to live with fewer expectations and strive for greater self-reliance. A heart that expects little, even after giving much, is less likely to be broken.
At the national level, however, the lesson is far more profound. Nigeria must build a country where its citizens can thrive without feeling compelled to seek survival elsewhere. Studies have shown that the overwhelming motivation behind the Japa phenomenon is the search for better opportunities and improved living conditions. If those opportunities existed at home, many Nigerians would gladly remain and contribute to national development.
The experience in South Africa—and, indeed, recent developments in the United States—demonstrates that immigration policies are shaped by changing political realities. No foreign country offers permanent guarantees.
Although the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to abolish birthright citizenship on constitutional grounds, the episode illustrates that even long-established policies can become subjects of political contestation. A constitutional principle that has existed since 1868 could still become a matter of national debate. That alone should remind us that every nation ultimately prioritises its own interests.
The enduring lesson is simple: no country can offer Nigerians greater long-term security than a well-governed Nigeria.
Nigeria’s greatest asset remains its people. Sustainable national prosperity can only be built through visionary leadership, accountable institutions, respect for the rule of law and responsible citizenship. When government creates an enabling environment and citizens embrace innovation, productivity and accountability, Nigeria can become a destination for investment rather than a source of economic migration.
As dozens of Nigerians return home following their repatriation from South Africa, government must move beyond sympathy and symbolic gestures. Some have returned with nothing more than the clothes they wore and a single travelling bag, leaving behind businesses, investments and years of hard work. Their return is not merely a journey home; for many, it is the painful collapse of dreams painstakingly built over decades. They deserve meaningful support to rebuild their lives and contribute productively to the nation’s economy once again.
History teaches that nations are strengthened not by chasing away strangers but by creating opportunities for their own citizens. Nigeria must therefore draw the right lessons from South Africa’s painful experience. Rather than exporting its brightest minds in search of survival, it should become a country where talent is rewarded, enterprise is encouraged and hope no longer requires a passport. Only then will Nigeria become not merely the giant of Africa by population, but by the quality of life it offers its people.
Olusegun Hassan, Ph.D
Public Policy Analyst and Social Commentator
Opinion
An Open Letter to Northern Leaders: Arewa Is Bleeding. Who Will Answer the Call?
Published
7 days agoon
July 7, 2026By
Mega IconI write this letter with a heavy heart to the sons and daughters of Arewa, particularly those entrusted with leadership and influence, concerning the painful reality confronting our region today. Once united in purpose and driven by a shared vision, Arewa now appears to be living in the shadow of its glorious past.
Our forefathers built this great region with one voice, setting aside differences of ethnicity and religion. They understood that unity was our greatest strength and that our diversity was not a weakness but a blessing. Their legacy was one of peace, mutual respect, visionary leadership, and collective progress.
Today, it is heartbreaking to witness how far we have drifted from those ideals. This letter is a sincere call for reflection, reconciliation, and a renewed commitment to rebuilding the unity, security, and prosperity that once defined our beloved Arewa.
Arewa Under Siege
Northern Nigeria has become widely known as a hotspot for multiple forms of insecurity. From the Boko Haram insurgency to widespread kidnapping, armed banditry, and violent attacks, fear has become part of everyday life. People no longer feel safe in their homes, workplaces, on their farms, or while travelling on the highways. Every journey is undertaken with uncertainty, with no guarantee of arriving safely.
Even more troubling is the perception that these security challenges have become normalised. Reports of abductions, killings, and attacks have become so frequent that they often receive far less attention than they deserve. This perceived indifference from those in positions of authority has contributed to a growing public belief that criminal groups now operate with confidence and relative impunity.
Consequently, many residents feel abandoned, while public trust in the government’s ability to protect lives and property continues to erode.
Addressing this crisis requires a coordinated and sustained response through stronger security operations, improved intelligence gathering, greater support for affected communities, and genuine accountability. Without decisive action, the cycle of violence and fear will continue to undermine the region’s stability, economic development, and the well-being of its people.
Beyond Insecurity: A Crisis of Leadership
The North’s challenges are not accidental. Poverty, insecurity, and underdevelopment are the cumulative consequences of long-standing structural failures, weak governance, and policy choices that have compounded over decades.
Responsibility is shared across different segments of society—including the political elite, the educated class, and the business community—many of whom have possessed both the influence and the opportunity to intervene more decisively than they have.
Rather than being the result of a single coordinated agenda, what is evident is a persistent pattern of neglect, weak accountability, and recurring governance failures that have allowed social and economic conditions to deteriorate. These failures have contributed to rising unemployment, declining educational outcomes, inadequate healthcare, and the expansion of insecurity across much of the region.
Breaking this cycle requires more than assigning blame. It demands institutional reform, accountable leadership, strategic investment in human capital, and a renewed sense of public responsibility.
Where Are the Northern Elite?
This brings us to the most difficult question: Where are the Northern elite? Where are the governors, ministers, lawmakers, business leaders, scholars, and other influential voices? Many command enormous influence, considerable private wealth, and extensive international networks, yet too often appear unable—or unwilling—to meaningfully confront the conditions that continue to leave large parts of the region insecure, impoverished, and politically weakened.
Why does this gap persist?
Part of the answer lies in proximity to power. In political environments shaped by patronage, speaking boldly may threaten access, while silence preserves influence. Over time, self-preservation begins to resemble strategy.
Unfortunately, the cost is borne not by those in positions of privilege but by ordinary communities far removed from the rooms where decisions are made.
Reviving the North’s Industrial Legacy
Northern Nigeria was once the industrial powerhouse of the country. Cities such as Kano and Kaduna were thriving centres of manufacturing, commerce, and employment. Today, much of that industrial strength has faded.
This is, therefore, a respectful appeal to two of Nigeria’s most accomplished industrialists—Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu. Many people continue to ask why there is limited visible large-scale industrial reinvestment in Kano, your home state, and across Northern Nigeria.
As a Kano indigene, and to the best of my knowledge, neither Aliko Dangote nor Abdul Samad Rabiu currently operates major manufacturing facilities actively producing in Kano. Several facilities associated with their businesses are widely reported to have become inactive or to function primarily as warehouses rather than active industrial plants. For example, along Tafawa Balewa Road, two BUA facilities that previously operated flour and vegetable oil mills are reported to have ceased production. Likewise, several Dangote industrial sites stretching from Mai Malari Road to the Sharada Industrial Area are also widely reported to be inactive or operating far below capacity.
Kano and Kaduna, once renowned for their vibrant manufacturing sectors, have experienced decades of industrial decline, resulting in widespread unemployment and underutilised infrastructure. At the same time, a significant share of new private-sector industrial investment appears to have been concentrated in other parts of the country, particularly the South-West. This naturally raises important questions about balanced national development.
Philanthropy remains valuable and deeply appreciated. Scholarships, donations, and humanitarian support undoubtedly improve lives. However, charity cannot replace sustainable industrial development.
What the North urgently needs is long-term investment that revives manufacturing, creates employment, strengthens local supply chains, develops skills, and rebuilds industrial ecosystems across Kano, Kaduna, and neighbouring states. Strong factories build strong communities, while sustainable industries create lasting prosperity. The expectation, therefore, is not charity but a renewed commitment to the economic transformation of the region where many of Nigeria’s greatest industrial success stories first began.
The Responsibility of Business Leaders
The Northern business elite have watched insecurity, poverty, and displacement deepen while economic activity has increasingly concentrated elsewhere.
Insurgency, banditry, and weakened rural governance have disrupted agriculture, trade routes, and local markets. Investment naturally gravitates towards safer and more predictable environments. Yet public advocacy from many influential business leaders has often remained muted, constrained by commercial interests, political relationships, and regulatory considerations.
The region risks becoming divided into two realities: one integrated into national wealth and opportunity, and the other left to bear the consequences of persistent insecurity, economic stagnation, and neglect.
Business leadership extends beyond generating profits. It also entails helping to create an environment where enterprise can flourish, jobs can be created, and communities can prosper. Sustainable economic growth depends not only on private investment but also on the willingness of influential stakeholders to advocate policies and initiatives that promote stability, security, and inclusive development.
The North’s business community has historically played a significant role in shaping the region’s economic fortunes. That tradition of leadership remains essential today. While governments bear primary responsibility for governance and security, the private sector also possesses the capacity to influence development through strategic investments, partnerships, innovation, and constructive engagement with public institutions.
Rebuilding confidence in Northern Nigeria requires collaboration among government, businesses, civil society, and local communities. A more secure and prosperous region ultimately benefits everyone, creating new opportunities for investment, employment, and long-term economic growth.
A Message to Political Leaders
To the political leadership of Northern Nigeria: the contradiction has become increasingly difficult to ignore. The region remains one of the country’s most significant in terms of population and political influence, yet it continues to lag behind on key development indicators such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, employment, and security.
When communities are attacked, farmers are displaced, and schools are forced to close, silence from those entrusted with leadership is seldom interpreted as restraint. More often, it is perceived as detachment. Leadership is measured not only by electoral success or political influence but also by the willingness to confront difficult realities with courage, empathy, and decisive action.
The expectations of citizens go beyond promises. They seek visible commitment, practical solutions, and sustained engagement with the challenges affecting their daily lives. Rebuilding public confidence requires leadership that is accountable, responsive, and focused on the long-term development of the region.
A Message to the Educated and Professional Class
To our academics, professionals, and intellectuals: the evidence is neither hidden nor difficult to find. Reports, research, and lived experiences consistently reveal widening gaps in human development, education, healthcare, and security.
Yet, too often, expertise remains confined within institutions and professional circles that discourage open engagement with entrenched power. Knowledge should not merely describe problems; it should help solve them. Research should inform policy, enrich public debate, and contribute meaningfully to sustainable solutions.
Every society depends on courageous thinkers who are willing to engage constructively, challenge complacency, and place the public interest above personal convenience. The North possesses no shortage of intellectual talent. What is needed is a stronger connection between knowledge and action.
A Message to Cultural Influencers
To our musicians, artists, writers, actors, and other public figures: throughout history, art has served as a powerful instrument of truth, reflection, and social transformation. Cultural voices have inspired movements, preserved history, and given hope to communities during difficult times.
Yet, when economic survival becomes closely tied to political or commercial interests, critical voices often become subdued. Society benefits when its cultural figures speak with honesty, empathy, and a sense of responsibility. Their influence extends beyond entertainment; it helps shape public values, inspire civic engagement, and amplify the concerns of ordinary people.
A Shared Responsibility
Ultimately, this is not solely a Northern Nigerian problem. It reflects a broader question confronting societies everywhere: what happens when elite interests become disconnected from the well-being of ordinary people?
When access becomes more valuable than accountability, and proximity to power outweighs responsibility to the public, silence is rarely accidental—it becomes institutionalised.
The result is a widening emotional and political distance between leadership and the people. Unless that distance is narrowed through meaningful investment, principled advocacy, and courageous leadership, the same questions will continue to resonate:
Who speaks? Who benefits? Who bears the cost?
History will judge every generation by how it responds to the challenges of its time. Northern Nigeria possesses enormous human potential, entrepreneurial talent, agricultural resources, and a rich cultural heritage.
What it requires now is leadership marked by vision, courage, integrity, and an unwavering commitment to the common good.
This letter is not intended to condemn but to encourage honest reflection and meaningful action. The future of Arewa depends not only on government but also on every leader, businessperson, scholar, professional, artist, and citizen willing to place the region’s long-term prosperity above personal or political interests.
May we find the wisdom to rebuild what has been weakened, the courage to confront uncomfortable truths, and the determination to restore Northern Nigeria to its rightful place as a region of peace, opportunity, and shared prosperity.
Abba Dukawa writes from Kano and can be reached at abbahydukawa@gmail.com.
Opinion
2027: Why Oyo APC Should Close Ranks Behind Sarafadeen Alli | By Adeniyi Olowofela
Published
1 week agoon
July 4, 2026By
Mega IconSince the emergence of Senator Sarafadeen Alli as the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 election in Oyo State, I have listened to and read numerous reactions from party members and stakeholders. While some of his co-contestants have expressed disappointment, such feelings are understandable in every keenly contested democratic process.
Interestingly, many people have attempted to draw Senator Teslim Folarin into the controversy surrounding the party’s choice. However, he has remained silent. In my view, that silence is deliberate. I believe Senator Folarin understands the direction taken by the party’s national leadership regarding the choice of candidate.
Anyone who believes Senator Folarin was unaware of Senator Sarafadeen Alli’s governorship ambition does not fully appreciate his political experience. Senator Folarin is a strategic politician. In the 2023 governorship election, he pursued victory with determination and commitment. Personally, I had hoped he would emerge victorious, and I remain convinced that he gave his all in that contest.
Former Minister of Power, Chief Bayo Adelabu, also contested the 2023 governorship election on the platform of the Accord Party. Although I disagreed with that political decision, democracy guarantees every citizen the freedom of association and political choice.
Following the election, he was appointed into the Federal Executive Council, a development many interpreted differently based on their political perspectives.
Today, Chief Adelabu commands a substantial political following built over several election cycles. His support base remains significant, and if APC is to present a formidable front in 2027, Senator Sarafadeen Alli will undoubtedly benefit from the goodwill and backing of Adelabu and his loyalists.
Similarly, former Minister of Communications, Barrister Adebayo Shittu, has consistently demonstrated interest in Oyo State’s governorship over the years, even though he did not purchase the APC nomination form this time. His political experience and network remain valuable assets that should not be ignored.
My sympathy also goes to those aspirants who invested as much as ₦50 million each to purchase the APC governorship nomination form. That is no small sacrifice. Nonetheless, politics demands sacrifice in the collective interest. The pendulum could easily have swung in favour of any of them. Had that happened, the rest of us would equally have appealed to others to rally behind the eventual flag bearer.
I recall an incident during the 2022/2023 party activities when an official from Abuja, sent to supervise APC affairs in Oyo State, passionately appealed to stakeholders to embrace consensus. His message remains instructive. He warned that continued division within the party would only prolong its stay outside power and ultimately hurt everyone.
That warning remains relevant today.
For seven years, the APC has remained outside government in Oyo State. Can the party afford another four years in opposition? I do not think so.
This is why the task before us goes beyond the personal ambition of Senator Sarafadeen Alli. It is a collective struggle for every APC member, especially the foot soldiers who have remained loyal through difficult times. The Federal Government alone cannot provide opportunities for everyone. Regaining power in Oyo State is essential if the party hopes to broaden opportunities for its members at both the state and federal levels.
The challenge before us, therefore, is to build a larger political platform that accommodates everyone.
Senator Sarafadeen Alli is no political novice. Over the years, he has built relationships across virtually every ward in Oyo State. His political structure and grassroots appeal are undeniable. If party members unite behind him, APC stands a strong chance of returning to Government House.
Realistically, the 2027 governorship contest in Oyo State is shaping up to feature three major political forces. First is Senator Sarafadeen Alli of the APC, representing arguably the state’s most established political platform. Second is Hon. Bimbo Adekanbi, who many believe enjoys the backing of Governor Seyi Makinde and is expected to fly the flag of the APM. Third is Alhaji Hazmat Oriyomi of the Accord Party, whose growing popularity among many grassroots supporters cannot be dismissed.
The eventual winner is likely to emerge from one of these three political blocs. That reality alone should remind APC members that victory is far from guaranteed.
The surest path to success is unity.
This election should not be seen as Senator Sarafadeen Alli’s personal battle. It is the collective responsibility of every APC member who desires the party’s return to power in Oyo State.
The time has come to bury personal grievances, close ranks and work together. Only through unity can APC reclaim Oyo State in 2027.
Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela, former Chairman of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) in Oyo State, former Chairman of Ido Local Government, former Commissioner for Education, Science and Technology in Oyo State, and former Federal Commissioner representing Oyo State at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), writes from Abuja.
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