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Oyo Guber 2023: Clash of the Titan Vs the Crafty

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Saturday, March 18, 2023, as electorates in Oyo State would seek to elect a governor, it sure to be a very interesting and keenly contested race in the chequered history of the political capital of the South West.

Full of intrigue, schemes, calculations and political antics. Permutations and predictions can turn those doing it nought. However, I offer an objective analysis based on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the major contenders

Post presidential and national assembly elections, Oyo State 2023 governorship has become a straight battle between the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and a three-term Senator Teslim Folarin, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate.

Factors Against Seyi Makinde

The collapse of the coalition

It is no more news that Engr. Seyi Makinde won the 2019 election that brought him in as Governor of Oyo state on the wings of a political coalition mastered by a former governor of the state, High Chief Rashidi Ladoja against the All Progressives Congress (APC) led by late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi, who broke the jinx of a second term in the state. Not long into Governor Makinde’s tenure, major members and political juggernauts of the coalition had gone their separate ways.

Weakness of PDP in Oyo State

Hours before the 2023 governorship race, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a party in Oyo State is in tatters. G-5 alignment that Governor Makinde had with Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State dipped the fortunes of PDP in Oyo State. PDP leaders like, High Chief former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, ex-Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarunmi, ex-Reps member Mulikat Adeola, Alhaji Bisi Olopoeyan, Engr Femi Babalola among others have come out openly to declare that their supporters should vote against Governor Seyi Makinde.

The collapse of the Local Governments under Governor Makinde

Governor Makinde, who defended this publicly in a media chat that he opted not to empower the local governments. So these local governments became comatose, unable to deliver democratic dividends to the critical grassroots.

Legislators didn’t enjoy their tenures

Even if Governor Makinde survived the tsunami against himself, he’s likely to have problems with the State House of Assembly. The majority of house members, imagine the Speaker House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Adebo Ogundoyin publicly complained about the governor’s styles, so, they have disillusioned them. Makinde didn’t make them perform. Most of these lawmakers may not be reelected. The PDP Speaker of the State House of Assembly publicly complained to his constituents about their frustrations.

Problems in the education sector

No fewer than 50 secondary schools in Oyo State were removed from the list of schools where WAEC examinations would be held henceforth due to cases of examination malpractice. Lecturers from higher institutions are against the governor as he foisted a sole administrator -consultant, a non-indigene to be in charge of all tertiary institutions. So, he did in many MDAs and LGs, rendering those organs of governance redundant, including the latest  poor rankings.

Debts Profile

The state of debts Profile of Oyo State, allegedly put at N400b, is not cheering. His critics quickly point out there are not many tangible, societally beneficial projects to justify such humongous debts profile.

Security

Comparatively, to the times of late Senator Abiola Ajimobi as Governor, the security of lives and properties has nosedived in Oyo State. It is believed that Governor Makinde didn’t help the situation as he was alleged to have empowered a “notorious thug”, Alhaji Mukaila Lamidi popularly known as ‘Auxilary’ to be the Chairman of Oyo State Park Management System (PMS).

Political Mis-Choice

In the quest to be the sole decider of things in the PDP, Governor Makinde independently choose Engr Joseph Tegbe over the incumbent Senator Lekan Balogun and foisted his will over the dictates of members of his party. He was also accused to assert severally that he has no political godfather and not reporting to any politician in Oyo State. Interestingly, Governor Makinde was reporting to Governor Wike in Rivers State.

He neglected core, indigenous and experienced PDP leaders in Oyo State and brought Governor Wike from Rivers State to inaugurate Oyo State projects and to lead his governorship campaigns.

Lack-Lustre Aides

In all the cabinet of Governor Seyi Makinde, one could not point to any of his commissioners who performed extraordinarily. All was done by Governor Makinde. In most cases, the names of his aides including commissioners are not known. Unlike most precious first ladies in Oyo State, his wife, Mrs Tamunominini Makinde didn’t quite have any tangible project ascribable to her.

Muslim Disposition

Having spent four years, many Muslim electorates believe it is the turn for a Muslim Governor in Oyo State. This disposition, it is believed by Muslims, that Sen. Teslim Folarin best represents this thought. Nevertheless, many civil servants are quite excited that regularly Governor Makinde pays their monthly salaries. Others feel satisfied with the level of infrastructure Makinde had been able to put in place. His gentlemanly postures are also attractive to many.

Despite his pluses, political pundits believe it will be a great task for Governor Seyi Makinde to survive the barrage of opposition and tsunami against him in the 2023 governorship election in Oyo State.

Things showing up for Teslim Folarin

Comparatively, especially after the Presidential election, the chances of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in Oyo State, Senator Teslim Folarin emerging as the next Governor seems to be getting brighter. Some factors seem to help this:

Political Hardwork

Loathe him or like him, give it to Folarin, he has worked well and hard for this contest, while many of his opponents were undecided and confused. He understands the contest and has approached it as a very knowledgeable and experienced politician. He gave the contest his all.

Payback Time

Sen. Teslim Folarin did serious political work for the President-elect, Sen. Bola Tinubu, the three senatorial seats in Oyo State which APC won and the house of representatives seats. Give it to Folarin. He is a budding party leader and he has cutting-edge answers to emerging political issues. Curiously, he was able to inherit political leaders who the late Abiola Ajimobi and Adebayo Alao-Akala worked with, and he galvanized and managed them well. Indeed, the new Oyo State senators and the house of representatives newly elected are indebted to Sen. Teslim Folarin’s hybrid political mastery and blending of Oyo Amala politics with tech-savvy inputs. Folarin was there for them. They have vowed to wallop the Governor Makinde machinery in the guber contest as payback for ‘Oga Tessy’.

Ladoja’s endorsement

How Sen. Teslim Folarin was able to secure this remains miraculous. It is a Mastercard. High Chief Rashidi Ladoja, former Oyo State Governor, is not a baby politician in Oyo State, by any standard. He endorsed and galvanized a coalition for the incumbent governor before he could emerge as Governor against a ruling party. Ladoja has cult-like political followership, die-hard adherents and networks throughout Oyo State. A group of Mogajis, Baales and Chiefs have attacked former Ambassador Arapaja who double as Governor Makinde installed Deputy National Chairman for speaking against Ladoja, the highly revered Otun Olubadan of Ibadan land. They categorically asserted that whatever Chief Ladoja has said represented the Olubadan in Council.

Ibadan Chief Factor

Sen. Teslim Folarin is also a top-ranking chief in Ibadanland. It is not unexpected that they would not abandon their very own. High Chief Ladoja categorically stated:’ vote for Tessy, forget anything bad you may have against him.

Religious Factor

Sen. Folarin has already worked with the grassroots and established himself as a true unrepentant Muslim. Whereas, political analysts believe Chief Bayo Adelabu didn’t know which religion to claim. Governor Makinde hurriedly added ‘Bashiru’ to his name. Meanwhile, the vast Muslim electorates had adopted consistent Folarin as the Muslim candidate.

Oyo state cannot be an opposition

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s victory in February has gone to enhance Folarin ‘s chance in March as vast majority of the people do not imagine the State is under an opposition party as it was under Governor Makinde. People of the state want to be in the mainstream.

Image enhancement by Folarin

In days precedent to the election, Sen. Folarin engaged in several public interviews, debates and self-image marketing which sure worked on his behalf. Hitherto, the negative label was of a TKF, an illiterate, violence-loving, typical Amala politician from the Adedibu political dynasty who was just lucky in the political scenes. However, when he began to show forth his intellectual stuff, the negative label that he was not a sellable candidate went underground.

Adedibu political dynasty

Folarin was a leading member of the political dynasty of a late aristocratic power broker in Oyo State, Nigeria, Chief Lamidi Ariyibi Akanji Adedibu, the strong man of Ibadan politics, in their heydays. They didn’t abandon their very own, more so when Makinde betrayed PDP during the 2023 presidential election. Curiosity Adedibu ‘s PA, former Deputy Governor Gbolarunmi has taken up the fight against Seyi Makinde. Even the late Lamidi Adedibu’ widow, Chief Bose Adedibu, who also doubles as PDP Zonal Women Leader has been unusually quiet during the Guber campaigns. The PDP people’s support for Folarin, so massive, has made core APC conservative members so insecure of possible implosion in the Oyo State APC after the elections.

However, Sen. Folarin would still need the disgruntled APC members and leaders, especially those who have embraced other parties such as  Accord Party (AP).

 

Idowu Ayodele, writes from Ibadan, Oyo state.

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Opinion

Seven Factors That Keep Sharafadeen Alli Ahead in 2027 Oyo Governorship Race

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File photo of Sen. Sarafadeen Alli

 

Fact 1: Homegrown Leader with Unmatched Grassroots Experience

Senator Alli’s political journey began at the grassroots level in Ibadan, where he made history in 1991 as the first democratically elected Executive Chairman of Ibadan North Local Government. This early leadership role demonstrates a deep, foundational understanding of local governance and the needs of the people, a critical asset for a state governor.

Fact 2: Rare Combination of Top-Tier Academic and Professional Credentials

Senator Alli is not just a politician but also a distinguished legal practitioner with a Ph.D. in Legislative and Strategic Studies. His extensive education, including degrees from the University of Ibadan, combined with his fellowships from prestigious professional institutes, provides him with the analytical, legal and strategic acumen required to manage the complex affairs of Oyo State.

Fact 3: Proven Executive Administrative Competence at the Highest State Level

His tenures as Secretary to the Oyo State Government (SSG) and later as Chief of Staff (CoS) to the Governor showcase his direct experience in the engine room of state administration.

 

He has been intimately involved in policy formulation, committee leadership and the day-to-day running of the state, making him uniquely prepared to assume the governorship and hit the ground running from day one.

Fact 4: Demonstrated Executive Business Leadership with Regional Impact

As Chairman, Board of Directors of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Senator Alli was not just an administrator but a visionary economic leader. He spearheaded landmark investments such as the Cocoa Mall and Heritage Mall in Ibadan, which transformed the economic landscape of Oyo State. This proven ability to attract and drive large-scale economic development is directly transferable to governing Oyo State.

Fact 5: Battle-Tested and Consistent Political Figure

Senator Alli’s political career spans more than three decades, weathering the annulment of his 1996 Senate election and consistently remaining a relevant and influential force. He has contested for Deputy Governor and Governor in the past, giving him a comprehensive understanding of statewide campaigns and the diverse political landscape of Oyo State. His journey demonstrates resilience, deep political networks and unwavering commitment.

Fact 6: Current, Performing Senator and Influential Figure

As the sitting Senator for Oyo South, he is actively delivering quality representation, impactful constituency projects and people-oriented legislation. He has sponsored five Bills and raised six Motions to promote development. Senator Alli has also facilitated employment for 100 constituents across Federal Government agencies.

His role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agricultural Colleges and Research Institutions, as well as his membership in the ECOWAS Parliament, demonstrate that he is not only focused on local issues but is also equipped with a broader perspective on governance, trade and regional integration.

Fact 7: Unifying and Respected Traditional Title Holder

Senator Alli’s position as the Ekaarun Balogun of Ibadanland, one of the highest-ranking chieftaincy titles in the ancient city, signifies his deep-rooted connection to tradition and his standing as a respected community leader.

His reputation as a calm, wise, simple, relatable and inclusive bridge-builder who unites people across political, religious and ethnic divides positions him as a leader capable of fostering peace, stability and consensus across the entire state.

 

Oladele is the Director of Media & Publicity, Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organization.

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Oloye Lekan Alabi: Memories Ere Death Beckoned Both Caller and Called |By Wole Adejumo  

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The young lady who usually delivers packaged moinmoin for members of staff who want it for lunch came in as she usually did, and after the exchange of pleasantries, I asked if she knew the difference between Ọọlẹ and Moinmoin. My colleagues looked at me strangely when I disagreed with her response that both were the same. I promised to tell her the difference later. I, however, told my colleagues the difference as explained to me by Oloye Lekan Alabi. Though a suave, urbane and sophisticated Ibadan chief,  he took time to explain the similarities and differences as we prepared for the annual Oke ‘Badan Festival some years back.  

He had retired from the service of Odua Investment Company Limited, where he demonstrated competence  and character then, but that did not in any way diminish his encyclopaedic knowledge of history. He sat beside the Aboke, Chief Ifamapowa and some other stakeholders at the press conference heralding the ceremony that year.

My first real contact with him happened after I had written a short piece, ‘The Man Who Would Be King’, about him. Oloye, who bore the titles of Jagun Olubadan and  Akogun of Lalupon agreed to have an interview. My Bureau Chief, Bola Davies (now of blessed memory) directed me to go and when I got to his office in Cocoa House, he thanked me for wishing him well. He thereafter took time to explain the Olubadan ascension system. The interview was published in one of the earliest editions of City People Quarterly back then. That interview and some other things I wrote about him eventually earned me a mention in one of his books.

Oloye Alabi was no doubt an aficionado when history, music and culture are up for discussion. Of course, with his rich cultural heritage, he stood out anywhere and everywhere. Little wonder His Imperial Majesty, the Ooni of Ife hosted his investiture when he was appointed as the first Cultural Ambassador of the National Museum, Ile Ife. His immense breadth of knowledge will give him a place in history just as it did to the likes of Chiefs John Adeyemi Ayorinde, Theophilus Akinyele and Alaafin Lamidi Adeyemi III. His love for good music too was more than obvious. Like a true connoisseur, he did everything with class and style. He wrote countless articles about Chief Commander Ebenezer Obey, King Sunny Ade, Chief Eddy Okonta and many more. His love for Yusuf Olatunji’s Sakara music defied competent description. It was so great that he named his youngest son after the Sakara legend.

In one of his many philosophical volumes, ‘Baba L’Egba’ as Olatunji was fondly called, sang that “o ye ka ni ‘fura taa ba nsin ale eni lo” (one should be watchful when seeing off a concubine) and the only person I felt I could ask what was on Baba L’Egba’s mind then was Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Sadly, the auspicious time to ask never came.

A reception was once hosted in his honour by Ambassador Ibironke Adefope at Bodija and it was regal! Everyone who mattered came to honour Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Reporting the event for City People then, one of the most unusual sights was Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, the then Deputy Governor of Oyo State. His simplicity was indescribable. Aside driving his convertible BMW, he came in a yellow sweatshirt and jeans.

And when he turned 60, it was like everyone else joined the Ibadan establishment to celebrate Oloye ‘Lekan Alabi. Aare Arisekola Also spoke about the celebrant in glowing terms as he emphasized that Oloye Alabi was indeed a man destined for greatness. The party afforded me the opportunity of seeing Alhaja Batile Alake live on stage. Her sonorous voice actually brought great childhood memories of when songs of Batile Alake, Olubowale Ajasco, Alalaye Ilorin and others were regular on the television.

Apart from his respectable dress sense and indepth knowledge of issues, other admirable traits of the late Abese Olubadan were his timeliness and punctuality. He once told me the story of how he had suggested that card be presented to the then military President, General Ibrahim Babangida on the birth of his baby girl back then. It turned out that the picture of where he handed the card  over was published in dailies the following day. Apart from personal discipline, working with four Governors of Oyo State obviously rubbed off on him, he never attended an event late. There was a day we had to apologize as we started an event behind schedule at the Premier Hotel, Ibadan. He was about the first guest  and after accepting our apologies, he didn’t become vexatious, rather, with a smile he told us that he would be in his room upstairs. He said all we needed to do was put  call through to him when we were ready to start the programme.

I stood close by him at certain event and heard Chief Lateef Oyelade praying for Oloye Alabi who had just greeted him in Yoruba, he said “Olubadan o kan o” (may it be your turn to become the Olubadan). Like many of his mentees,  I looked forward to seeing him on the exalted Olubadan throne, it was however not to be.

​Reflecting on those golden days of celebrity journalism; the Bodija reception, the grand 60th birthday, the laughter of legends now silent; one is reminded that time eventually beckons both the caller and the called. Bola Davies, His Excellency, Otunba Alao-Akala, Aare Arisekola Alao, Chief Lateef Oyelade, Ambassador Adefope and now Oloye himself have all answered that ultimate call. Though the exalted Olubadan throne eluded him, Oloye ’Lekan Alabi leaves behind a legacy as towering as Cocoa House itself. Like his noble forebears – Oyetunde Olundegun, ‘Erin o P’ojo Logun’, and Ekerin Suberu Ajengbe, he came, he saw, he lived with unmatched panache, and he left an indelible mark on the sands of time.

 

Adejumo sent this piece from Ogbomoso 

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Beyond Deportations: What South Africa’s Immigration Crisis Reveals About Nationhood and Economic Frustration

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The popular saying that “one good turn deserves another” appears increasingly absent from present-day South Africa’s national consciousness. It is difficult not to ask whether many South Africans have forgotten the history of their country’s liberation and the immense sacrifices made by Nigeria and other African nations in the long struggle against apartheid.

For days, I have been deeply troubled by reports of South Africa’s worsening immigration crisis and the forceful, vigilante-style eviction of African migrants, particularly Nigerians. Beyond the headlines are broken families, shattered dreams and livelihoods painstakingly built over many years. It is a painful development that should concern every African who once believed in the ideals of continental solidarity.

Anti-immigrant sentiments in South Africa are not new. For more than two decades, campaigns against foreign nationals have been fuelled by high unemployment, widespread poverty, rising crime and frustration over inadequate public services. Many South Africans believe undocumented immigrants compete with them for jobs, housing, healthcare and social services, thereby denying citizens access to these basic necessities.

Yet, available evidence tells a more complex story. Research has consistently shown that immigrants alone cannot be blamed for South Africa’s economic and social challenges. Reducing such deep-rooted problems to the presence of foreign nationals oversimplifies a crisis that has been decades in the making.

What is often overlooked is the country’s structural economic reality. A significant skills mismatch, coupled with weaknesses in the quality of education, has left many job seekers ill-equipped for the demands of an economy increasingly driven by technology, innovation and specialised skills. This challenge is not peculiar to South Africa. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, thousands of graduates enter the labour market every year without the technical, vocational and digital competencies employers now demand.

Beyond this, crime, insecurity, systemic corruption and poor governance continue to weigh heavily on South Africa’s economy. The country has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world. Persistent violent crime discourages investment, while corruption and the mismanagement of public resources have weakened service delivery, slowed infrastructure development and eroded investor confidence.

Equally significant is the enduring legacy of apartheid. More than three decades after democracy, inequalities in education, housing, infrastructure and economic opportunities remain deeply entrenched. Many Black communities still live with the consequences of decades of institutional discrimination and economic exclusion.

Against this backdrop, blaming undocumented immigrants for South Africa’s economic difficulties amounts to little more than scapegoating. It is a convenient narrative that diverts attention from the country’s more fundamental governance and developmental challenges.

The recurring xenophobic attacks against Nigerians and other African nationals make the situation even more painful. The recent killing of Emeka Iroegbu and Musa Yunana Joe on June 28, 2026, amid rising anti-migrant tensions, is a tragic reminder of how dangerous such sentiments can become.

One cannot help but ask: Is this the same South Africa for which Nigeria and many other African countries stood firmly during the anti-apartheid struggle?
I vividly remember growing up in the 1980s, listening to songs such as Free Mandela and Stop Apartheid in South Africa by iconic Nigerian musicians, including Majek Fashek, Onyeka Onwenu and Sonny Okosun. Those songs dominated the airwaves on NTA and became powerful symbols of African solidarity.

As a child, I even believed Nelson Mandela was Nigerian because Nigerians embraced his cause with such passion.
Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and became South Africa’s first Black President in 1994, bringing an end to decades of institutionalised racial segregation and apartheid. Today, just over three decades later, many Africans who once stood shoulder to shoulder with South Africans in their darkest hour are treated as unwelcome strangers.
History can be painfully ironic.

Perhaps, then, the saying that one good turn deserves another does not always reflect reality. Human beings are capable of repaying kindness with hostility. It is an uncomfortable truth, but one that life repeatedly teaches.

At a personal level, this reminds us to live with fewer expectations and strive for greater self-reliance. A heart that expects little, even after giving much, is less likely to be broken.

At the national level, however, the lesson is far more profound. Nigeria must build a country where its citizens can thrive without feeling compelled to seek survival elsewhere. Studies have shown that the overwhelming motivation behind the Japa phenomenon is the search for better opportunities and improved living conditions. If those opportunities existed at home, many Nigerians would gladly remain and contribute to national development.

The experience in South Africa—and, indeed, recent developments in the United States—demonstrates that immigration policies are shaped by changing political realities. No foreign country offers permanent guarantees.

Although the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to abolish birthright citizenship on constitutional grounds, the episode illustrates that even long-established policies can become subjects of political contestation. A constitutional principle that has existed since 1868 could still become a matter of national debate. That alone should remind us that every nation ultimately prioritises its own interests.
The enduring lesson is simple: no country can offer Nigerians greater long-term security than a well-governed Nigeria.

Nigeria’s greatest asset remains its people. Sustainable national prosperity can only be built through visionary leadership, accountable institutions, respect for the rule of law and responsible citizenship. When government creates an enabling environment and citizens embrace innovation, productivity and accountability, Nigeria can become a destination for investment rather than a source of economic migration.

As dozens of Nigerians return home following their repatriation from South Africa, government must move beyond sympathy and symbolic gestures. Some have returned with nothing more than the clothes they wore and a single travelling bag, leaving behind businesses, investments and years of hard work. Their return is not merely a journey home; for many, it is the painful collapse of dreams painstakingly built over decades. They deserve meaningful support to rebuild their lives and contribute productively to the nation’s economy once again.

History teaches that nations are strengthened not by chasing away strangers but by creating opportunities for their own citizens. Nigeria must therefore draw the right lessons from South Africa’s painful experience. Rather than exporting its brightest minds in search of survival, it should become a country where talent is rewarded, enterprise is encouraged and hope no longer requires a passport. Only then will Nigeria become not merely the giant of Africa by population, but by the quality of life it offers its people.

 

Olusegun Hassan, Ph.D
Public Policy Analyst and Social Commentator

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