Opinion
Oyo Guber 2023: Clash of the Titan Vs the Crafty
Published
1 year agoon
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Saturday, March 18, 2023, as electorates in Oyo State would seek to elect a governor, it sure to be a very interesting and keenly contested race in the chequered history of the political capital of the South West.
Full of intrigue, schemes, calculations and political antics. Permutations and predictions can turn those doing it nought. However, I offer an objective analysis based on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the major contenders
Post presidential and national assembly elections, Oyo State 2023 governorship has become a straight battle between the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and a three-term Senator Teslim Folarin, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate.
Factors Against Seyi Makinde
The collapse of the coalition
It is no more news that Engr. Seyi Makinde won the 2019 election that brought him in as Governor of Oyo state on the wings of a political coalition mastered by a former governor of the state, High Chief Rashidi Ladoja against the All Progressives Congress (APC) led by late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi, who broke the jinx of a second term in the state. Not long into Governor Makinde’s tenure, major members and political juggernauts of the coalition had gone their separate ways.
Weakness of PDP in Oyo State
Hours before the 2023 governorship race, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a party in Oyo State is in tatters. G-5 alignment that Governor Makinde had with Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State dipped the fortunes of PDP in Oyo State. PDP leaders like, High Chief former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, ex-Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarunmi, ex-Reps member Mulikat Adeola, Alhaji Bisi Olopoeyan, Engr Femi Babalola among others have come out openly to declare that their supporters should vote against Governor Seyi Makinde.
The collapse of the Local Governments under Governor Makinde
Governor Makinde, who defended this publicly in a media chat that he opted not to empower the local governments. So these local governments became comatose, unable to deliver democratic dividends to the critical grassroots.
Legislators didn’t enjoy their tenures
Even if Governor Makinde survived the tsunami against himself, he’s likely to have problems with the State House of Assembly. The majority of house members, imagine the Speaker House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Adebo Ogundoyin publicly complained about the governor’s styles, so, they have disillusioned them. Makinde didn’t make them perform. Most of these lawmakers may not be reelected. The PDP Speaker of the State House of Assembly publicly complained to his constituents about their frustrations.
Problems in the education sector
No fewer than 50 secondary schools in Oyo State were removed from the list of schools where WAEC examinations would be held henceforth due to cases of examination malpractice. Lecturers from higher institutions are against the governor as he foisted a sole administrator -consultant, a non-indigene to be in charge of all tertiary institutions. So, he did in many MDAs and LGs, rendering those organs of governance redundant, including the latest poor rankings.
Debts Profile
The state of debts Profile of Oyo State, allegedly put at N400b, is not cheering. His critics quickly point out there are not many tangible, societally beneficial projects to justify such humongous debts profile.
Security
Comparatively, to the times of late Senator Abiola Ajimobi as Governor, the security of lives and properties has nosedived in Oyo State. It is believed that Governor Makinde didn’t help the situation as he was alleged to have empowered a “notorious thug”, Alhaji Mukaila Lamidi popularly known as ‘Auxilary’ to be the Chairman of Oyo State Park Management System (PMS).
Political Mis-Choice
In the quest to be the sole decider of things in the PDP, Governor Makinde independently choose Engr Joseph Tegbe over the incumbent Senator Lekan Balogun and foisted his will over the dictates of members of his party. He was also accused to assert severally that he has no political godfather and not reporting to any politician in Oyo State. Interestingly, Governor Makinde was reporting to Governor Wike in Rivers State.
He neglected core, indigenous and experienced PDP leaders in Oyo State and brought Governor Wike from Rivers State to inaugurate Oyo State projects and to lead his governorship campaigns.
Lack-Lustre Aides
In all the cabinet of Governor Seyi Makinde, one could not point to any of his commissioners who performed extraordinarily. All was done by Governor Makinde. In most cases, the names of his aides including commissioners are not known. Unlike most precious first ladies in Oyo State, his wife, Mrs Tamunominini Makinde didn’t quite have any tangible project ascribable to her.
Muslim Disposition
Having spent four years, many Muslim electorates believe it is the turn for a Muslim Governor in Oyo State. This disposition, it is believed by Muslims, that Sen. Teslim Folarin best represents this thought. Nevertheless, many civil servants are quite excited that regularly Governor Makinde pays their monthly salaries. Others feel satisfied with the level of infrastructure Makinde had been able to put in place. His gentlemanly postures are also attractive to many.
Despite his pluses, political pundits believe it will be a great task for Governor Seyi Makinde to survive the barrage of opposition and tsunami against him in the 2023 governorship election in Oyo State.
Things showing up for Teslim Folarin
Comparatively, especially after the Presidential election, the chances of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in Oyo State, Senator Teslim Folarin emerging as the next Governor seems to be getting brighter. Some factors seem to help this:
Political Hardwork
Loathe him or like him, give it to Folarin, he has worked well and hard for this contest, while many of his opponents were undecided and confused. He understands the contest and has approached it as a very knowledgeable and experienced politician. He gave the contest his all.
Payback Time
Sen. Teslim Folarin did serious political work for the President-elect, Sen. Bola Tinubu, the three senatorial seats in Oyo State which APC won and the house of representatives seats. Give it to Folarin. He is a budding party leader and he has cutting-edge answers to emerging political issues. Curiously, he was able to inherit political leaders who the late Abiola Ajimobi and Adebayo Alao-Akala worked with, and he galvanized and managed them well. Indeed, the new Oyo State senators and the house of representatives newly elected are indebted to Sen. Teslim Folarin’s hybrid political mastery and blending of Oyo Amala politics with tech-savvy inputs. Folarin was there for them. They have vowed to wallop the Governor Makinde machinery in the guber contest as payback for ‘Oga Tessy’.
Ladoja’s endorsement
How Sen. Teslim Folarin was able to secure this remains miraculous. It is a Mastercard. High Chief Rashidi Ladoja, former Oyo State Governor, is not a baby politician in Oyo State, by any standard. He endorsed and galvanized a coalition for the incumbent governor before he could emerge as Governor against a ruling party. Ladoja has cult-like political followership, die-hard adherents and networks throughout Oyo State. A group of Mogajis, Baales and Chiefs have attacked former Ambassador Arapaja who double as Governor Makinde installed Deputy National Chairman for speaking against Ladoja, the highly revered Otun Olubadan of Ibadan land. They categorically asserted that whatever Chief Ladoja has said represented the Olubadan in Council.
Ibadan Chief Factor
Sen. Teslim Folarin is also a top-ranking chief in Ibadanland. It is not unexpected that they would not abandon their very own. High Chief Ladoja categorically stated:’ vote for Tessy, forget anything bad you may have against him.
Religious Factor
Sen. Folarin has already worked with the grassroots and established himself as a true unrepentant Muslim. Whereas, political analysts believe Chief Bayo Adelabu didn’t know which religion to claim. Governor Makinde hurriedly added ‘Bashiru’ to his name. Meanwhile, the vast Muslim electorates had adopted consistent Folarin as the Muslim candidate.
Oyo state cannot be an opposition
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s victory in February has gone to enhance Folarin ‘s chance in March as vast majority of the people do not imagine the State is under an opposition party as it was under Governor Makinde. People of the state want to be in the mainstream.
Image enhancement by Folarin
In days precedent to the election, Sen. Folarin engaged in several public interviews, debates and self-image marketing which sure worked on his behalf. Hitherto, the negative label was of a TKF, an illiterate, violence-loving, typical Amala politician from the Adedibu political dynasty who was just lucky in the political scenes. However, when he began to show forth his intellectual stuff, the negative label that he was not a sellable candidate went underground.
Adedibu political dynasty
Folarin was a leading member of the political dynasty of a late aristocratic power broker in Oyo State, Nigeria, Chief Lamidi Ariyibi Akanji Adedibu, the strong man of Ibadan politics, in their heydays. They didn’t abandon their very own, more so when Makinde betrayed PDP during the 2023 presidential election. Curiosity Adedibu ‘s PA, former Deputy Governor Gbolarunmi has taken up the fight against Seyi Makinde. Even the late Lamidi Adedibu’ widow, Chief Bose Adedibu, who also doubles as PDP Zonal Women Leader has been unusually quiet during the Guber campaigns. The PDP people’s support for Folarin, so massive, has made core APC conservative members so insecure of possible implosion in the Oyo State APC after the elections.
However, Sen. Folarin would still need the disgruntled APC members and leaders, especially those who have embraced other parties such as Accord Party (AP).
Idowu Ayodele, writes from Ibadan, Oyo state.
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Opinion
OYO101: ADELABU— When will this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant stop?| By Muftau Gbadegesin
Published
4 weeks agoon
April 22, 2024![Screenshot202404222026551 MegaIcon Magazine](https://megaiconmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot_20240422-202655_1.jpg)
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The Minister of Power, Oloye Bayo Adelabu, has apologized for lashing out at Nigerians over poor energy management.
I hope Nigerians, especially our people from Oyo state, forgive and overlook his Freudian slip. Given that apology, I believe the minister has realized his mistakes and will subsequently act accordingly. In days that followed the minister’s vituperation, many otherwise cool-headed and easy-going observers quickly joined the band of critics and cynics. By the way, what BAND do you think those critics belonged to?
Plus, how best do you describe kicking someone who is down already? The flurry of condemnation that followed Oloye Adelabu’s ‘AC-Freezer’ sermon must have surprised and shocked him. Instead of sticking to his prepared speech, he decided to dash off by telling Nigerians some home truth. Quite amusingly, the truth, it turns out, is not the truth Nigerians want to hear. And as they say, ‘There is your truth, my truth, and the Truth.’ The fact is that Nigerians are angry at many things, the sudden hike in electricity tariff being one.
Perhaps the Minister’s press conference, an avenue to calm fraying nerves and address critical issues, quickly congealed into an arena for an intellectual dogfight – if you watch the video, you will hear the murmur that rented the air the moment that terse statement was uttered. While some influencers tried to downplay the minister’s jibe, they were instead flogged in their whitewashing game. Frankly, I am not interested in the minister and the energy management brouhaha. What I am indeed interested in is what the ministry and minister are doing to restore light in a country where darkness has permeated much of its landscape – don’t mind the confusion the minister and the ministry have created to disrupt the conversation around that vital sector of the economy.
‘Up NEPA’, Lol
Trust Nigerians. When the defunct National Electric Power Authority failed to end the perennial and persistent darkness in the country, it was ironically dubbed ‘Never Expect Power Always.’ And when the company morphed into PHCN, Nigerians berated the name change, saying the company would hold more power than it would release. True to that assumption, PHCN indeed held more power than it gave to the people.
Then, in 2013, Nigerians woke up to the news of DISCOs, GENCOS, GASCOs, and so on. DISCOs for distribution companies, GENCOs for generating companies, and Gascos for gas suppliers. Of all these critical value chains, only DISCOs were handed down to private enterprises. Think of IBEDC, AEDC, IEDC, BEDC, etc. Unfortunately, the privatization of the distribution chain hasn’t transformed the sector’s fortune for good. More interested in the money but less motivated to do the dirty work of revamping the infrastructure.
Like a typical Nigerian in a ‘band E’ environment, I grew up chanting the ‘Up NEPA’ mantra whenever power is restored at home – and I am not alone in this mass choir. As a rural boy, the ‘Up NEPA’ chant is etched into our skulls from time immemorial. Sometimes, you can’t even tell when you start to join the chorus; you only know that you say it automatically and auto-magisterially. Many years down the lane, the persistent power cuts, blackouts, and grid collapses have worsened. And under Minister Adelabu, power supply, based on my little experience, has never reached this depressing point in history.
As a content creator, I can tell you Oloye Adelabu may likely go down in history as the most inconsequential minister of power unless something drastic is done to restore people’s confidence and bring about a steady, stable, frequent, and regular power supply. You may have seen on social media how most Nigerians who migrated abroad often find it difficult to shed that ‘Up NEPA’ chant from themselves once a power cut is fixed in those countries. Like the rest of their countrymen, they have internalized that mantra. Only after they’ve acclimatized to their new environment would they become healed of that verbal virus ultimately.
‘Adelabu, end this chant’
This is a challenge. In my column welcoming Oloye Adelabu into the critical ministry of power, I asked a rhetorical question: Can Adelabu end the penkelemesi in the power sector? In Nigeria, is there any other economic sector troubled by multidimensional and multifaceted peculiar messes than the power sector? Adelabu’s grandfather, Adegoke Adelabu, was nicknamed Penkelemesi. History has it that the colonial masters, tired of that Ibadan politician, decided to describe him in the punchiest way possible: a peculiar mess. Quickly, a peculiar mess spread across like wildfire: the white men have described Adegoke as a peculiar mess. Translated to Yoruba, we have Penkelemesi. In retrospect, the minister must have realized the situation he met on the ground is better than what is obtainable now. He needs to own up, chin up, and take full responsibility for this total blackout.
‘Minister Fashola’
Babatunde Fashola, SAN is a clever man. For four years as minister of power, he avoided cutting controversy. But long before he was appointed, he had stirred quite an expectation around fixing the rot in the sector. He had jokingly said his party, the APC, would resolve the crisis of perennial blackout in one fell swoop. He categorically gave a timeline of when Nigerians in the cities and villages will start to enjoy regular power supply: six months. After four years of setbacks, Minister Fashola was forced to eat his vomit: the power crisis in Nigeria is deep-seated and chaotic. Oloye Adelabu has made more enemies than friends in less than a year. The minister may survey his performance among Nigerians to test this hypothesis. The truth is the truth. The mismatch between the minister’s area of competence and his assigned portfolio hasn’t helped matters as well. And this is a cavity many of his critics and traducers are banking on.
For the first time in decades, Adelabu stands on the threshold of history: will he end this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant once and for all? Time will tell.
OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state. He can be reached via @muftaugbade on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.
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Opinion
Yahaya Bello: Do we need to prosecute ex-govs?
Published
4 weeks agoon
April 21, 2024By
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I followed the drama of unimaginable scenes that unfolded in Abuja last week, as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) moved to arrest and arraign the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, in respect of alleged mismanagement of funds. I called it a drama of unimaginable scenes because the EFCC had laid siege to the house since very early in the day, knowing that its target, the “White Lion of Kogi State” was holed up somewhere in the compound.
But before the very eyes of the EFCC operatives, the man they had waited all day to catch, just slipped off their hands effortlessly. They claimed that he was rescued by his cousin, the incumbent governor of the state, Usman Ododo, who is protected by constitutional immunity. But EFCC lawyers would claim that Section 12 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) empowers the body to break into houses to effect arrest.
Maybe that’s a story for another day. But it was surprising they didn’t think of that option. Bello was said to have stayed put in the Government House Lokoja since indication emerged that the EFCC was on his trail. So the easiest thing for the Kogi governor to do was to drive into the troubled house and then fish out a troubled cousin.
The Yahaya Bello saga is just the latest drama between the EFCC and former governors. Some time ago, we witnessed the Ayo Fayose drama. The former Ekiti State governor, whom EFCC was unable to arrest while in office put up some drama when he arrived at EFCC’s office wearing a branded ‘T’ shirt with the inscription: “EFCC I’m here.” Some of his loyalists helped him with things he needed to use in the EFCC detention.
Aside from that, we have also witnessed the Willie Obiano saga. The former governor of Anambra State was accused of misappropriating the state’s funds and has since been taken to court. Immediately after handing over the reins of power in Awka, the man had planned to jet out of the country but had to be stopped as EFCC operatives grabbed him at that exit point. We were also witnesses to the back and forth between the former Governor Abdulaziz Yari of Zamfara State and the EFCC. The commission had accused Yari of mismanaging billions of Naira and moved to arraign him.
There were accusations and counter-accusations until Yari landed in the Senate, and things became quiet. The drama between the ex-Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, was interesting while it lasted. The commission had laid siege to the residence and eventually entered through the roof. We saw a terrified Okorocha and his household, praying fervently for God’s intervention as operatives jumped in to grab their suspect.
The list I have above is by no means exhaustive of the dramatic exchanges between the EFCC and some former governors accused of one financial misdeed or the other in recent years. One thing is, however, common to all the cases, after the the initial bubbles, the whole thing dies down as the retreating waves. Next to nothing is heard of the cases as the neck-breaking snail-speed of the nation’s judicial system takes over. Year after year, it is about one injunction or the other. Many of the accused had gone ahead to seek elective posts and won, many others have taken appointments and the law cannot stop them from utilising the benefits of the allegedly looted resources to gain an advantage since our laws presume individuals innocent until proven guilty.
The books of the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPCC) are full of such individuals who have allegations of hundreds of billions of Naira hanging on their necks. Many of them are busy swinging the official chairs in government offices as we speak. God forbid, one of such should, gain control of the nation’s presidency one day!
Well, to forestall such a scary development, I think we need an antidote to these endless anti-corruption trials. The endless trial is not just a drain on the energy of the lady justice. It drills a gaping hole in the state’s resources as well. Imagine the legal charges the state incurs in taking several cases through the layers of courts. It is also possible some of the accused, who are innocent of the accusation could die in the process of trials and thus carry an unnecessary burden of guilt (at least in the eyes of the public) into their graves. The late governor of Oyo State, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala was able to win his case against the EFCC after 13 years, he died not long after the ‘not guilty’ verdict was pronounced. Former President of the Senate, Adolphus Wabara was also on the bribe-for-budget case preferred against him for more than ten years. Luckily, he was alive to receive his ‘not guilty’ verdict as well. Some may not be that lucky.
To stem this tide of seemingly endless trials of politically exposed persons, I want to suggest amendments to the EFCC and ICPC Acts to lay much premium on thorough and discreet probes of financial crimes rather than dump the results of the investigations in the court, the suspects should be called in and shown the traces of the illegally taken funds and their destinations. If the suspect is ready to refund at least two-thirds of the stolen funds to the coffers of the government, the agency involved, under the supervision of a competent court, could sign an irrevocable non-disclosure agreement and collect the funds into a special basket created for that purpose and which will be used for infrastructural development.
Such an agreement should also take care of any possible penchant for grandstanding by any politician who could mount the podium one day and claim never to have been indicted of financial crimes. As much as the government would not waste time and resources prosecuting him or her, he should also be barred from active politics and playing godfather roles. If we do this, we will not only save time and resources, but we will get back a sizeable amount of the looted funds into government coffers for developmental purposes.
By Taiwo Adisa
This piece was first Published By Sunday Tribune, April 21, 2024.
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Tinubu’s Naira Miracle: Abracadabra or Economic Wizardry? | By Adeniyi Olowofela
Published
1 month agoon
April 16, 2024By
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Prior to assuming the presidency of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu garnered the confidence of the majority of Nigerians with the promise of rescuing the country’s economy from the impending disaster it faced.
For the past 43 years, the Naira has been steadily depreciating against the Dollar, as illustrated in Figure One.
The graphs below unequivocally depict the exponential rise of the Naira against the Dollar from 1979 to 2022. This sustained upward trend would have theoretically resulted in the Naira reaching 2,500 Naira to one Dollar by now.
This situation led some individuals to hoard dollars in anticipation of profiting from further devaluation of the Naira.
However, under President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, the Nigerian federal government successfully halted the expected decline of the Naira.
The Naira has appreciated to 1,200 Naira to a Dollar (Figure 2), contrary to the projected 2,500 Naira to one Dollar, based on the exponential pattern observed in Figure One.
This achievement demonstrates unprecedented economic prowess. If this trajectory continues, the Naira may appreciate to 500 Naira against 1 Dollar before the conclusion of President Bola Tinubu’s first term in 2027.
While the purchasing power of the average Nigerian remains relatively low, there is a palpable sense of hope on the rise.
It is hoped that the Economic Team advising the President will continue their efforts to stabilize the economy and prevent its collapse until Nigeria achieves economic prosperity.
The government’s ability to reverse the Naira’s free fall within a year can be likened to a remarkable feat, reminiscent of a lizard falling from the top of an Iroko tree unscathed, then nodding its head in self-applause.
Mr. President, we applaud your efforts.
Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela, the Commissioner representing Oyo State at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), writes from Abuja.
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