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Opinion: The pandemic is no time for fiscal distancing | By Akinwumi Adesina
These are very difficult days, as the world faces one of its worst challenges ever: the novel coronavirus pandemic. And it seems almost no nation is spared. As infection rates rise, so does panic across financial markets, as economies drastically slow down and supply chains are severely disrupted.
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. As such, it can no longer be business as usual.
Each day, the situation evolves and requires constant reviews of precautionary measures and strategies. In the midst of all this, we must all worry about the ability of every nation to respond to this crisis. And we must ensure that developing nations are prepared to navigate these uncharted waters fully.
That’s why I support the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ urgent call for special resources for the world’s developing countries.
In the face of this pandemic, we must put lives above resources and health above debt. Why? Because developing economies are the most vulnerable at this time. Our remedies must go beyond simply lending more. We must go the extra mile and provide countries with much-needed and urgent financial relief — and that includes developing countries under sanctions.
According to the independent, global think tank ODI in its report on the impact of economic sanctions, for decades, sanctions have decimated investments in public health care systems in quite a number of countries.
Today, the already stretched systems as noted in the 2019 Global Health Security Index will find it difficult to face up to a clear and present danger that now threatens our collective existence.
Only those that are alive can pay back debts.
Sanctions work against economies but not against the virus. If countries that are under sanctions are unable to respond and provide critical care for their citizens or protect them, then the virus will soon “sanction” the world.
In my Yoruba language, there is a saying. “Be careful when you throw stones in the open market. It may hit a member of your family.”
That’s why I also strongly support the call by the UN Secretary-General that debts of low-income countries be suspended in these fast-moving and uncertain times.
But I call for even bolder actions, and there are several reasons for doing so.
First, the economies of developing countries, despite years of great progress, remain extremely fragile and ill equipped to deal with this pandemic. They are more likely to be buried with the heavy fiscal pressure they now face with the coronavirus.
Second, many of the countries in Africa depend on commodities for export earnings. The collapse of oil prices has thrown African economies into distress. According the AFDB’s 2020 Africa Economic Outlook, they simply are not able to meet budgets as planned under pre-coronavirus oil price benchmarks.
The impact has been immediate in the oil and gas sector, as noted in a recent CNN news analysis.
In the current environment, we can anticipate an acute shortage of buyers who, for understandable reasons, will reallocate resources to addressing the Covid-19 pandemic. African countries that depend on tourism receipts as a key source of revenue are also in a straightjacket.
Third, while rich countries have resources to spare, evidenced by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus, developing countries are hampered with bare-bones resources.
The fact is, if we do not collectively defeat the coronavirus in Africa, we will not defeat it anywhere else in the world. This is an existential challenge that requires all hands to be on deck. Today, more than ever, we must be our brothers and sisters’ keepers.
Around the world, countries at more advanced stages in the outbreak are announcing liquidity relief, debt restructuring, forbearance on loan repayments, relaxation of standard regulations and initiatives.
In the United States, packages of more than $2 trillion have already been announced, in addition to a reduction in Federal Reserve lending rates and liquidity support to keep markets operating. In Europe, the larger economies have announced stimulus measures in excess of 1 trillion Euros. Additionally, even larger packages are expected.
As developed countries put in place programs to compensate workers for lost wages for staying at home for social distancing, another problem has emerged — fiscal distancing.
Think for a moment what this means for Africa.
The African Development Bank estimates that Covid-19 could cost Africa a GDP loss between $22.1 billion, in the base case scenario, and $88.3 billion in the worst case scenario. This is equivalent to a projected GDP growth contraction of between 0.7 and 2.8 percentage points in 2020. It is even likely that Africa might fall into recession this year if the current situation persists.
The Covid-19 shock will further squeeze fiscal space in the continent as deficits are estimated to widen by 3.5 to 4.9 percentage points, increasing Africa’s financing gap by an additional $110 to $154 billion in 2020.
Our estimates indicate that Africa’s total public debt could increase, under the base case scenario, from $1.86 trillion at the end of 2019 to over $2 trillion in 2020, compared to $1.9 trillion projected in a ‘no pandemic’ scenario. According to a March 2020 Bank report, these figures could reach $2.1 trillion in 2020 under the worst case scenario.
This, therefore, is a time for bold actions. We should temporarily defer the debt owed to multilateral development banks and international financial institutions. This can be done by re-profiling loans to create fiscal space for countries to deal with this crisis.
That means that loan principals due to international financial institutions in 2020 could be deferred. I am calling for temporary forbearance, not forgiveness. What’s good for bilateral and commercial debt must be good for multilateral debt.
That way, we will avoid moral hazards, and rating agencies will be less inclined to penalize any institution on the potential risk to their Preferred Creditor Status. The focus of the world should now be on helping everyone, as a risk to one is a risk to all.
There is no coronavirus for developed countries and a coronavirus for developing and debt-stressed countries. We are all in this together.
Multilateral and bilateral financial institutions must work together with commercial creditors in Africa, especially to defer loan payments and give Africa the fiscal space it needs.
We stand ready to support Africa in the short term and for the long haul. We are ready to deploy up to $50 billion over five years in projects to help with adjustment costs that Africa will face as it deals with the knock-on effects of Covid-19, long after the current storm subsides.
But more support will be needed. Let’s lift all sanctions, for now. Even in wartime, ceasefires are called for humanitarian reasons. In such situations, there is a time to pause for relief materials to reach affected populations. The novel coronavirus is a war against all of us. All lives matter.
For this reason, we must avoid fiscal distancing at this time. A stitch in time will save nine.
Social distancing is imperative now. Fiscal distancing is not.
Akinwumi A. Adesina is President of the African Development Bank Group
Ahead of the 2027 general elections, the national leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on Tuesday held a high-level strategic meeting with the Oyo State chapter of the party as part of efforts to reposition the APC for victory and prevent internal crisis ahead of the polls.
The development was first scooped by OYOINSIGHT.COM which quoted multiple party sources familiar with the closed-door deliberations.
Sources disclosed that the meeting, held in Abuja, focused largely on a consensus arrangement being considered by stakeholders of the party in Oyo State, in line with political templates reportedly being adopted in Lagos and Ogun states ahead of the next electoral cycle.
Party insiders said the move was aimed at strengthening unity within the fold of the opposition party in the state, minimising rancour during the primaries and presenting a formidable front against rival parties in 2027.
It was further gathered that some members of the state executive committee may have been subtly informed about preferred consensus candidates being considered for elective positions across the state.
Though details of the deliberations were still sketchy as of press time, sources hinted that the national leadership stressed the need for cohesion, discipline and strategic alignment among stakeholders to improve the party’s electoral fortunes in Oyo.
Those at the meeting included the Oyo APC Chairman, Moses Alake Adeyemo; the state secretary, Fatai Adesina Adeniyi; the Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare; the Organising Secretary, Aderemi Adepoju; and the Legal Adviser, Sunday Aborisade.
Others were the Women Leader, Adekemi Opatunde; the Youth Leader, Olalekan Oladejo; Joshua Oyebamiji; Tunde Oloyede; Sunday Babalola; Joseph Omoniyi; and Mojeed Adebayo.
As of the time of filing this report, the party had yet to issue an official statement on the outcome of the meeting.
The Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State, Chief Moses Alake Adeyemo, on Monday assured aspirants and party members that the party would conduct transparent, peaceful and credible direct primaries ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Adeyemo declared that no aspirant would be victimised or denied a level playing field, stressing that the party leadership remained committed to internal democracy and progressive ideals.
The former deputy governor spoke while receiving members of the APC Screening and Appeal Committees deployed from the party’s National Secretariat in Abuja at the APC Secretariat in Oke-Ado, Ibadan.
He disclosed that although the party initially explored consensus arrangements across elective positions, prevailing realities indicated that direct primaries would be conducted in some areas, including the governorship contest.
Adeyemo said the party had already put necessary structures in place to ensure a hitch-free exercise capable of strengthening unity within the APC.
He said: “We set machineries in motion for us to achieve the aim of consensus across board but reports available to me indicate that we would have to go by the second option which is direct primary in certain cases including the governorship ticket.
“To this end, we shall work towards organising free, fair and credible exercise in all the affected areas even as we cannot rule out the possibility of some aspirants having a rethink and supporting the consensus arrangement as necessary.
“Where we have more than an aspirant, Abuja would send people to conduct primaries and we at the state level would provide the required support to make everything work out in the interest of our great party.”
The APC chairman explained that all registered party members would participate fully in the exercise at their respective wards on dates to be announced by the National Secretariat.
According to him, affirmation would be adopted in areas where consensus candidates emerge, while voting would be conducted wherever direct primaries become necessary.
“For consensus, members will lend their voices for affirmation while voting will be done in the cases of direct primary,” he added.
Speaking earlier, Chairman of the Screening Committee and former Speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Taofiq AbdusSalam, assured party faithful that the committee would carry out a thorough, transparent and unbiased screening process.
He said only eligible aspirants would be cleared to participate in the primaries and eventually fly the APC flag in the forthcoming elections.
Other members of the Screening Committee are Kamal Sanusi (Secretary), Smart Oluwole, Tunde Kolade and Olabamiji Agunloye.
Members of the Screening Appeal Committee are Jibola Oduwole (Chairman), Abimbola Jack (Secretary) and Jelil Jimoh.
The Nigeria Democratic Congress on Saturday zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria, declaring that the party’s candidate would serve a single four-year term if elected.
The decision was reached during the party’s national convention held in Abuja amid growing momentum within the opposition platform following a wave of high-profile defections from other political parties.
Announcing the development on its official social media handle, the party stated, “NDC presidential ticket is zoned to the South!!”
The party also resolved that its 2031 presidential ticket would be ceded to Northern Nigeria as part of efforts to maintain regional balance and internal equity.
The convention comes as key opposition figures, including former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former New Nigeria People’s Party presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, joined party leaders and delegates at the Abuja gathering.
Saturday’s convention is expected to ratify several recent decisions taken by the party’s National Executive Committee, including zoning arrangements, amendments to the party constitution, and the election of new national executives.
According to the convention agenda obtained by journalists, discussions centred on zoning, ratification of the amended constitution, and leadership restructuring ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The NDC has in recent weeks witnessed a surge in defections from rival opposition parties, particularly the African Democratic Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party.
On Tuesday, no fewer than 17 members of the House of Representatives defected from the ADC to the NDC.
Their defections were formally announced during plenary at the House of Representatives.
The lawmakers include Yusuf Datti, Uchenna Okonkwo, Adamu Wakili, Thaddeus Attah, George Ozodinobi, Lilian Orogbu, Oluwaseyi Sowunmi, Peter Aniekwe, Mukhtar Zakari, George Oluwande and Munachim Umezuruike.
Others are Emeka Idu, Jesse Onuakalusi, Ifeanyi Uzokwe, Afam Ogene, Murphy Omoruyi and Abdulhakeem Ado.
The defections came barely two days after Obi and Kwankwaso formally joined the NDC from the ADC.
The duo were presented with the party’s membership cards last Sunday shortly after a closed-door meeting with party leaders.
A former Governor of Bayelsa State and NDC national leader, Seriake Dickson, officially welcomed the opposition figures into the party.
Obi had attributed his exit from the ADC to worsening internal crises, external interference and what he described as increasing hostility within party structures.
The former Anambra State governor said Nigeria’s political environment had become increasingly toxic, marked by intimidation, insecurity and sustained scrutiny of opposition figures.
He also lamented that institutions meant to protect citizens were now often deployed against them, while individuals committed to genuine public service faced mounting pressure both publicly and privately.
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