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Between Tinubu and Buhari’s favoured successor

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The market for 2023 politics has been declared opened by the son of Abibatu Mogaji who is also the ceremonial national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT). The Asiwaju of Lagos State had visited the president to intimate him of his intention to vie for the number one position in the country.

As a political strategist, Asiwaju understands the first law of power which says ‘never outshine the master’. The master in the APC is the incumbent President who through his last exclusive interview with Channels TV, revealed that he also understands the laws of power. It was Seun Okinbaloye who asked President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) “You don’t have any favourite in your party (to succeed you) in 2023?” and the president responded: “No. I wouldn’t disclose (now).

He may be eliminated if I mention. I better keep it secret”. Through this response, PMB displayed his understanding of the importance of concealed intentions as a powerful tool in ‘keeping off-balance and in the dark’, so that those thinking they are close to the President will be shocked by the time he unleashes the purpose behind his actions and unveil his favoured successor. But how is PMB’s position critical in the unfolding declaration of interests for the 2023 presidency in the ruling party? Will the Jagaban of Borgu find favour as the favoured successor the President spoke about in the interview? With all the powers at his disposal, why would the President be afraid that his favoured successor may be eliminated if he dares to name him and what does this say about the nature of Nigerian politics?

While expression of interest in the 2023 presidential race is still at infancy, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has stressed that it is his lifelong ambition to become the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and he has the right as the citizen of the country who meets the constitutional requirements to that office to so aspire. From activism, formation of National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and foray into politics, the Jagaban of Borgu has been playing strategic politics towards realizing his ambition dating back to his ascendancy to the Governorship seat of Lagos State. He has since then been enjoying political patronage from within and stretching his sphere of influence outside the state. In terms of political sagacity, I am aware that Tinubu was the only surviving Alliance for Democracy Governor in the southwest who did not fall victim of the antics of the Olusegun Obasanjo government that swept others; that defeat shifted the structure of power and influence to the surviving governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the chief financier of the party. Turning Lagos to Industrial training space for politicians who would later be supported financially and morally to realise their own gubernatorial ambitions in Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo states, Asiwaju’s political clientelism is an investment which he hopes to leverage on at the right time. He must have realised that spread also counts in becoming the president of Nigeria and so wasted no time in raising political disciples to begin to preach his gospel as he expands his tentacles.

As Lagos groomed politicians become Governors in other states in the region, Jagaban became the kingmaker and championed expansive politics oriented to position him in history. After unsuccessful attempts at getting the center through regional strength, Tinubu mainstreamed his politics to National through which he will be able to, in the nearest future build alliances that will ensure the realization of his presidential ambition. He later aligned with former political foe, the incumbent President, who also failed to clinch his lifelong dream of becoming a democratic President thrice. They formed a new mega-party that would unseat the Peoples’ Democratic Party. At the birthing of APC, compromise also had to be made as the vote from northern Nigeria would be needed as a payback to the support given to their son from Daura, whose shoes will soon become vacant.

As Tinubu continues to position people in the corridors of power and influence in the polity, he also ensures he breaks the barriers of religion and ethnicity by identifying with those who would be useful for him later, which may be now. This political tactician with academic resume in accountancy and experience in the oil industry would now reveal the desire to break the record of late Sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo to achieve the feat the great Awolowo did not achieve. This is also seen in what I consider as a political statement of promising to build on the foundation of PMB if he becomes the President. Was it to correct the mistakes made by some political warlords from the region in the past who revealed their true intentions and got their ambitions thwarted? Even at that, the Jagaban would have to solve the puzzle of PMB’s favoured successor, settle intra-party rivalries which will soon ensue and if successful, face inter-party battles and finally the Nigerian electorates.

While lifelong ambition is good, how does the realization of an individual’s desire benefit the country positively? This is because the alignment of Asiwaju with President Buhari gave us the messy situation that Nigeria has found herself with all indices of human development going south.    

For now, the body language and mannerism of the President determines a lot of things in our polity and that is why aspirants are going go to Aso rock to intimate him that they are interested in wearing his shoes when he leaves in 2023.

Robert Greene’s 48 Laws of Power comes in handy at this time. Greene counsels us never to outshine the master but ‘to make the masters appear more brilliant that they are and you will attain the heights of power’. Why should someone called national leader of a party go to the President first? It is the understanding of the fact that Tinubu must ‘make the President feel comfortably superior’ and this is why the husband of Oluremi has been able to master the art of Nigerian politics. But the President has given no clue who the favoured successor will be and this is a blank cheque to all aspirants, waiting for whose name the President will write on it.

I have a feeling of an impending shocker which I get from the response of the president on his preferred successor. The atmosphere of uncertainty surrounding where the pendulum of presidential preference will swing may have made the President to keep sealed lips and safe the anointed person from being eliminated.

Our history is replete with unresolved ‘political assassination’ or if you like, ‘elimination’. Elimination is a law of power too. Crushing one’s enemy totally is reproduced in Pentecostal churches’ ‘die by fire’ prayers in which there is no time to take risk of allowing repentance of the enemy. In political parlance too, wiping out an enemy may be a strategy to neutralize a threat to your ambition and force a redirection to your side. Will the favoured successor of the President be Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu or another person?

Then, will the President’s favoured successor be favoured by the Nigerian electorates going by their nosediving fortunes under this government? Only time will provide the right answers.

 

Dr Tade, a sociologist send this piece via dotad2003@yahoo.com

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Opinion

Makinde Deserves No Sympathy: He Brought His Present Predicament Upon Himself

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In response to my brother, Shuaib Idris, who wrote the piece titled “Seyi Makinde Deserves Our Sympathy,” I submit that Seyi Makinde does not deserve our sympathy. How do you sympathise with somebody who brought political calamity upon himself?

There is a point in every political journey when a leader must pause, look around and ask himself a difficult question: How did I get here? For Governor Seyi Makinde, that moment has long arrived.

Much has been written and said about the governor’s increasingly combative public interventions, his exchanges with political opponents and his determination to market the candidacy of his preferred successor. Some have interpreted these developments as signs of pressure surrounding him. But sympathy, in this circumstance, may be misplaced.

If Governor Makinde is under pressure today, much of that pressure is self-inflicted. If his administration is now being subjected to increasingly intense scrutiny, he cannot reasonably blame those asking the questions. And if political opponents have become emboldened enough to challenge his record openly, he should perhaps examine the decisions and conduct that have created the circumstances in which those challenges are now flourishing.

The governor’s recent political conduct provides ample illustration.

At the 70th birthday celebration of Bishop Francis Wale Oke, the governor reportedly used his appearance to introduce Bimbo Adekanmbi, the APM governorship candidate whom he supports. Adekanmbi’s emergence as the APM candidate is not in dispute; the party adopted him as its consensus candidate in May.

Two things continue to haunt him: his subpar performance in office and what critics describe as his imposition of Adekanmbi and Open Salawu, new entrants into his team, on his “first eleven.”

The question, therefore, is not whether Governor Makinde has the right to support a candidate. He does. The question is why a governor who repeatedly speaks of his administration’s achievements appears increasingly eager to make the 2027 succession contest a personal project.

A governor nearing the end of his tenure should ordinarily be concerned about preserving the dignity of the office, defending his record with facts and allowing his preferred candidate to present his own credentials. Indeed, Adekanmbi himself has publicly said he would not be a political stooge and that he would take responsibility for his own decisions if elected. That is political rhetoric. However, everything about Adekanmbi, according to his critics, points to the possibility of his being a stooge waiting to be planted to do Makinde’s bidding after the latter leaves office in 2027.

Yet Governor Makinde has increasingly inserted himself into the political conversation surrounding his successor. That creates an unavoidable question: if Adekanmbi is sufficiently qualified and politically prepared to succeed him, why does the governor so frequently feel compelled to fight the successor’s battles himself?

This is where the argument about pressure becomes particularly relevant. Political pressure does not simply descend from heaven. It can be generated by the choices of the politician himself.

Consider the recent exchange with Senator Sharafadeen Alli over the legal profession. Governor Makinde reportedly questioned Alli’s experience as a lawyer, arguing that he had never entered a courtroom. Alli’s campaign organisation subsequently responded by detailing his legal background and professional experience.

There is nothing wrong with political candidates examining one another’s records. That is part of democratic competition. But reducing a lawyer’s professional identity to courtroom appearances is a curious line of attack, particularly when the political argument ought ultimately to be about competence, experience, policy and public record.

A lawyer can practise in several areas of the profession without making litigation the centre of his career. Administrative work, corporate practice, legal consultancy, governance and institutional management are among the possible avenues available to members of the profession.

The larger point, however, is this: when an incumbent administration turns the professional credentials of an opponent into a central campaign issue, it invites its own record to be placed under the microscope. So, why does he need to be sympathised with over what he brought upon himself?

The response from Alli’s camp has shifted attention towards questions about Makinde’s own record as an engineer and governor, particularly the controversy surrounding diesel-powered streetlights and the renovation of the Lekan Salami Stadium. Those are now matters of public political debate, with competing claims about expenditure and performance. How do you sympathise with someone who threw a stone and received a Scud missile?

This is the unavoidable consequence of political combat: once you open the door to scrutiny of another man’s credentials, you should expect yours to be examined with equal intensity. Governor Makinde cannot reasonably demand immunity from the same standard he applies to others.

The same principle applies to his much-advertised “first eleven.” If the governor describes his administration as being driven by a carefully assembled team of exceptional people, the public is entitled to ask what became of that team when the question of succession arose. Why was the search for a successor extended beyond this celebrated first eleven?

A football coach who constantly boasts about his first eleven naturally invites the question of who among that eleven can step forward when the captain leaves the field. If none is selected, his team’s fans will ask why. That is not persecution. It is accountability.

There is another issue the governor should confront: political loyalty. Governor Makinde did not arrive at the Government House in 2019 in isolation. His political journey involved alliances with people and groups who contributed to the coalition that eventually produced his victory. The political history of that period is well known and should not be rewritten simply because former allies and associates are now on different sides of the political divide.

The problem with “use and discard” politics is that yesterday’s ally eventually becomes tomorrow’s witness. People who helped build a political structure do not disappear simply because their usefulness has expired. And when they begin speaking, the politician who once relied on them may find himself answering questions he never anticipated.

That appears to be part of the political atmosphere surrounding Governor Makinde today. His confrontation with traditional institutions is another matter that requires careful reflection. Whatever one’s political affiliation, Yoruba traditional institutions occupy a distinctive place in the cultural architecture of Oyo State. Political disagreement with individual traditional rulers is legitimate; treating the institution itself with disdain is entirely wrong, and it raises questions about Makinde’s Omoluabi values.

A governor may disagree with a monarch’s political preference. He may even believe traditional rulers should remain politically neutral. But the language employed in expressing that disagreement matters.

The office of governor carries enormous constitutional authority, but it also carries a moral obligation to exercise restraint. A governor should not need to be reminded that words spoken from Government House do not remain personal words. They acquire the weight of the office. That is why some of Governor Makinde’s recent public exchanges have generated such controversy.

The irony is that political power is temporary, while institutions and relationships often outlive individual office holders. The governor should know this better than most.

He is approaching the end of his constitutionally permitted tenure in Oyo State. The political question before him is therefore not how to remain governor indefinitely, but what legacy he will leave behind. Will he be remembered primarily for the projects executed under his administration? For the policies introduced? For the institutions strengthened? Or increasingly for the political battles fought during the final phase of his tenure? The last question is what will occupy people’s minds most after Makinde has left office.

The most consequential political mistake an incumbent can make is to interpret every criticism as persecution and every opponent as an enemy. Criticism is not necessarily hatred. Opposition is not necessarily sabotage. Questions about public expenditure are not necessarily attacks on a person. And scrutiny of an administration is not evidence of an organised conspiracy.

A mature government answers questions. A confident administration publishes records. A secure political movement allows its candidate to speak. And a governor who believes his record speaks for itself should have little reason to spend every available political moment speaking for his preferred successor.

That is why sympathy for Governor Makinde is evidently misplaced. The political pressure surrounding him today is not simply something that happened to him. It is also the product of political decisions, alliances, rhetoric and strategies that he and his political associates have consciously pursued.

He chose his successor. He chose his political platform. He chose to engage his opponents. He chose to make their records a subject of public debate. He chose to defend his administration through increasingly political exchanges. Those choices have consequences.

The electorate is now watching. And when the people begin to ask questions, the appropriate response from a governor is not to complain about pressure. It is to provide answers. Oyo people do not owe any politician sympathy for the consequences of his political choices. They owe themselves something far more important: a careful examination of every candidate, every record, every promise and every claim before making their decision in 2027.

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Bayo Adelabu and the Art of Treachery: When the Boy Who Was Fed Bites the Finger

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Politics — that masquerade that never dances the same step twice.

Who would have thought it?

Who, after the political bruising of 2023, after the detour to Accord and the eventual return to the political fold, culminating in a ministerial appointment under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would have imagined that Bayo Adelabu would one day find himself politically associated with a movement backing Seyi Makinde and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM)?

Yet here we are.

Recent developments surrounding the Boye Nation movement have raised questions in Oyo’s political circles. Ajiboye Akande Sangogade, popularly known as Boye Nation and identified in reports as an aide to Adelabu, is leading a movement that is expected to formally declare for the APM at a youth-focused event scheduled for September 21, 2026, at the Lekan Salami Stadium, Adamasingba, Ibadan. Organisers say Governor Seyi Makinde is expected to attend.

That development naturally raises a political question: where exactly does Adelabu stand?

The question becomes even more compelling against the background of the 2027 Oyo governorship contest.

Adelabu had sought the APC governorship ticket, but Senator Sharafadeen Alli eventually emerged as the party’s candidate. The APC formally unveiled Alli and his running mate, Adesoji Adedeji, in July. Adelabu, however, had previously rejected the claim that Alli’s emergence represented a consensus arrangement and maintained that President Tinubu had backed his own ambition.

Now, with one of his prominent political associates leading a movement into the camp of another party, the political temperature has understandably risen.

The question being whispered across Ibadan is simple: is this merely the independent political decision of an aide and his supporters, or does it reflect a larger political strategy?

That question deserves an answer.

Because in politics, proximity is rarely meaningless.

If an associate who has operated closely within a politician’s political structure suddenly becomes a leading face of another political platform, observers will naturally ask whether the principal is aware, supportive, opposed or simply indifferent.

But there is an important distinction.

Association is not proof of instruction.

The fact that Boye Nation is associated with Adelabu does not, by itself, establish that Adelabu authorised the movement, financed it or personally endorsed APM’s presidential project. Those are matters that require evidence or a direct statement from the former minister.

And that is precisely where the real political conversation should begin.

Adelabu’s political history has never been short of twists. From his 2019 governorship bid to the 2023 political realignment and his appointment as Minister of Power, his journey has demonstrated the fluid nature of Oyo politics.

Today, however, the political arithmetic appears to be changing again.

The same APC that accommodated him after his 2023 political excursion now has another candidate carrying its governorship flag. Meanwhile, people identified with Adelabu’s political structure are appearing at an APM event expected to have Makinde at its centre.

For APC loyalists, that development may understandably raise questions about loyalty and party discipline.

For Adelabu, it presents an opportunity to clarify his position.

Is he still fully committed to the APC?

Does he support the activities of Boye Nation?

Does he have any connection with the planned APM mobilisation?

Or is Ajiboye Sangogade acting entirely on his own political conviction?

These are not unreasonable questions.

Indeed, they are questions that political actors should answer openly rather than leave the public to fill the gaps with speculation.

One thing, however, is certain: politics in Oyo is entering another season of realignment.

The September 21 gathering at Adamasingba may therefore be more than a concert. Organisers have described it as a youth mobilisation platform and a formal declaration of Boye Nation for the APM. Reports also indicate that the event is expected to receive members of the movement into the party.

That makes it politically significant.

Whether it represents a personal decision by Sangogade, a broader movement by Adelabu’s associates or something more strategic remains to be seen.

But one lesson from politics remains timeless:

When political friendships are tested, silence often creates more questions than answers.

And as the 2027 political season gathers momentum, Oyo’s political actors may soon discover that yesterday’s alliances can become tomorrow’s fault lines.

The masquerade has changed its dance.

Everybody is watching the drummer.

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Seven Factors That Keep Sharafadeen Alli Ahead in 2027 Oyo Governorship Race

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File photo of Sen. Sarafadeen Alli

 

Fact 1: Homegrown Leader with Unmatched Grassroots Experience

Senator Alli’s political journey began at the grassroots level in Ibadan, where he made history in 1991 as the first democratically elected Executive Chairman of Ibadan North Local Government. This early leadership role demonstrates a deep, foundational understanding of local governance and the needs of the people, a critical asset for a state governor.

Fact 2: Rare Combination of Top-Tier Academic and Professional Credentials

Senator Alli is not just a politician but also a distinguished legal practitioner with a Ph.D. in Legislative and Strategic Studies. His extensive education, including degrees from the University of Ibadan, combined with his fellowships from prestigious professional institutes, provides him with the analytical, legal and strategic acumen required to manage the complex affairs of Oyo State.

Fact 3: Proven Executive Administrative Competence at the Highest State Level

His tenures as Secretary to the Oyo State Government (SSG) and later as Chief of Staff (CoS) to the Governor showcase his direct experience in the engine room of state administration.

 

He has been intimately involved in policy formulation, committee leadership and the day-to-day running of the state, making him uniquely prepared to assume the governorship and hit the ground running from day one.

Fact 4: Demonstrated Executive Business Leadership with Regional Impact

As Chairman, Board of Directors of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Senator Alli was not just an administrator but a visionary economic leader. He spearheaded landmark investments such as the Cocoa Mall and Heritage Mall in Ibadan, which transformed the economic landscape of Oyo State. This proven ability to attract and drive large-scale economic development is directly transferable to governing Oyo State.

Fact 5: Battle-Tested and Consistent Political Figure

Senator Alli’s political career spans more than three decades, weathering the annulment of his 1996 Senate election and consistently remaining a relevant and influential force. He has contested for Deputy Governor and Governor in the past, giving him a comprehensive understanding of statewide campaigns and the diverse political landscape of Oyo State. His journey demonstrates resilience, deep political networks and unwavering commitment.

Fact 6: Current, Performing Senator and Influential Figure

As the sitting Senator for Oyo South, he is actively delivering quality representation, impactful constituency projects and people-oriented legislation. He has sponsored five Bills and raised six Motions to promote development. Senator Alli has also facilitated employment for 100 constituents across Federal Government agencies.

His role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agricultural Colleges and Research Institutions, as well as his membership in the ECOWAS Parliament, demonstrate that he is not only focused on local issues but is also equipped with a broader perspective on governance, trade and regional integration.

Fact 7: Unifying and Respected Traditional Title Holder

Senator Alli’s position as the Ekaarun Balogun of Ibadanland, one of the highest-ranking chieftaincy titles in the ancient city, signifies his deep-rooted connection to tradition and his standing as a respected community leader.

His reputation as a calm, wise, simple, relatable and inclusive bridge-builder who unites people across political, religious and ethnic divides positions him as a leader capable of fostering peace, stability and consensus across the entire state.

 

Oladele is the Director of Media & Publicity, Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organization.

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