Oyo Guber 2023: Clash of the Titan Vs the Crafty

 

Saturday, March 18, 2023, as electorates in Oyo State would seek to elect a governor, it sure to be a very interesting and keenly contested race in the chequered history of the political capital of the South West.

Full of intrigue, schemes, calculations and political antics. Permutations and predictions can turn those doing it nought. However, I offer an objective analysis based on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the major contenders

Post presidential and national assembly elections, Oyo State 2023 governorship has become a straight battle between the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and a three-term Senator Teslim Folarin, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate.

Factors Against Seyi Makinde

The collapse of the coalition

It is no more news that Engr. Seyi Makinde won the 2019 election that brought him in as Governor of Oyo state on the wings of a political coalition mastered by a former governor of the state, High Chief Rashidi Ladoja against the All Progressives Congress (APC) led by late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi, who broke the jinx of a second term in the state. Not long into Governor Makinde’s tenure, major members and political juggernauts of the coalition had gone their separate ways.

Weakness of PDP in Oyo State

Hours before the 2023 governorship race, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a party in Oyo State is in tatters. G-5 alignment that Governor Makinde had with Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State dipped the fortunes of PDP in Oyo State. PDP leaders like, High Chief former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, ex-Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarunmi, ex-Reps member Mulikat Adeola, Alhaji Bisi Olopoeyan, Engr Femi Babalola among others have come out openly to declare that their supporters should vote against Governor Seyi Makinde.

The collapse of the Local Governments under Governor Makinde

Governor Makinde, who defended this publicly in a media chat that he opted not to empower the local governments. So these local governments became comatose, unable to deliver democratic dividends to the critical grassroots.

Legislators didn’t enjoy their tenures

Even if Governor Makinde survived the tsunami against himself, he’s likely to have problems with the State House of Assembly. The majority of house members, imagine the Speaker House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Adebo Ogundoyin publicly complained about the governor’s styles, so, they have disillusioned them. Makinde didn’t make them perform. Most of these lawmakers may not be reelected. The PDP Speaker of the State House of Assembly publicly complained to his constituents about their frustrations.

Problems in the education sector

No fewer than 50 secondary schools in Oyo State were removed from the list of schools where WAEC examinations would be held henceforth due to cases of examination malpractice. Lecturers from higher institutions are against the governor as he foisted a sole administrator -consultant, a non-indigene to be in charge of all tertiary institutions. So, he did in many MDAs and LGs, rendering those organs of governance redundant, including the latest  poor rankings.

Debts Profile

The state of debts Profile of Oyo State, allegedly put at N400b, is not cheering. His critics quickly point out there are not many tangible, societally beneficial projects to justify such humongous debts profile.

Security

Comparatively, to the times of late Senator Abiola Ajimobi as Governor, the security of lives and properties has nosedived in Oyo State. It is believed that Governor Makinde didn’t help the situation as he was alleged to have empowered a “notorious thug”, Alhaji Mukaila Lamidi popularly known as ‘Auxilary’ to be the Chairman of Oyo State Park Management System (PMS).

Political Mis-Choice

In the quest to be the sole decider of things in the PDP, Governor Makinde independently choose Engr Joseph Tegbe over the incumbent Senator Lekan Balogun and foisted his will over the dictates of members of his party. He was also accused to assert severally that he has no political godfather and not reporting to any politician in Oyo State. Interestingly, Governor Makinde was reporting to Governor Wike in Rivers State.

He neglected core, indigenous and experienced PDP leaders in Oyo State and brought Governor Wike from Rivers State to inaugurate Oyo State projects and to lead his governorship campaigns.

Lack-Lustre Aides

In all the cabinet of Governor Seyi Makinde, one could not point to any of his commissioners who performed extraordinarily. All was done by Governor Makinde. In most cases, the names of his aides including commissioners are not known. Unlike most precious first ladies in Oyo State, his wife, Mrs Tamunominini Makinde didn’t quite have any tangible project ascribable to her.

Muslim Disposition

Having spent four years, many Muslim electorates believe it is the turn for a Muslim Governor in Oyo State. This disposition, it is believed by Muslims, that Sen. Teslim Folarin best represents this thought. Nevertheless, many civil servants are quite excited that regularly Governor Makinde pays their monthly salaries. Others feel satisfied with the level of infrastructure Makinde had been able to put in place. His gentlemanly postures are also attractive to many.

Despite his pluses, political pundits believe it will be a great task for Governor Seyi Makinde to survive the barrage of opposition and tsunami against him in the 2023 governorship election in Oyo State.

Things showing up for Teslim Folarin

Comparatively, especially after the Presidential election, the chances of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in Oyo State, Senator Teslim Folarin emerging as the next Governor seems to be getting brighter. Some factors seem to help this:

Political Hardwork

Loathe him or like him, give it to Folarin, he has worked well and hard for this contest, while many of his opponents were undecided and confused. He understands the contest and has approached it as a very knowledgeable and experienced politician. He gave the contest his all.

Payback Time

Sen. Teslim Folarin did serious political work for the President-elect, Sen. Bola Tinubu, the three senatorial seats in Oyo State which APC won and the house of representatives seats. Give it to Folarin. He is a budding party leader and he has cutting-edge answers to emerging political issues. Curiously, he was able to inherit political leaders who the late Abiola Ajimobi and Adebayo Alao-Akala worked with, and he galvanized and managed them well. Indeed, the new Oyo State senators and the house of representatives newly elected are indebted to Sen. Teslim Folarin’s hybrid political mastery and blending of Oyo Amala politics with tech-savvy inputs. Folarin was there for them. They have vowed to wallop the Governor Makinde machinery in the guber contest as payback for ‘Oga Tessy’.

Ladoja’s endorsement

How Sen. Teslim Folarin was able to secure this remains miraculous. It is a Mastercard. High Chief Rashidi Ladoja, former Oyo State Governor, is not a baby politician in Oyo State, by any standard. He endorsed and galvanized a coalition for the incumbent governor before he could emerge as Governor against a ruling party. Ladoja has cult-like political followership, die-hard adherents and networks throughout Oyo State. A group of Mogajis, Baales and Chiefs have attacked former Ambassador Arapaja who double as Governor Makinde installed Deputy National Chairman for speaking against Ladoja, the highly revered Otun Olubadan of Ibadan land. They categorically asserted that whatever Chief Ladoja has said represented the Olubadan in Council.

Ibadan Chief Factor

Sen. Teslim Folarin is also a top-ranking chief in Ibadanland. It is not unexpected that they would not abandon their very own. High Chief Ladoja categorically stated:’ vote for Tessy, forget anything bad you may have against him.

Religious Factor

Sen. Folarin has already worked with the grassroots and established himself as a true unrepentant Muslim. Whereas, political analysts believe Chief Bayo Adelabu didn’t know which religion to claim. Governor Makinde hurriedly added ‘Bashiru’ to his name. Meanwhile, the vast Muslim electorates had adopted consistent Folarin as the Muslim candidate.

Oyo state cannot be an opposition

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s victory in February has gone to enhance Folarin ‘s chance in March as vast majority of the people do not imagine the State is under an opposition party as it was under Governor Makinde. People of the state want to be in the mainstream.

Image enhancement by Folarin

In days precedent to the election, Sen. Folarin engaged in several public interviews, debates and self-image marketing which sure worked on his behalf. Hitherto, the negative label was of a TKF, an illiterate, violence-loving, typical Amala politician from the Adedibu political dynasty who was just lucky in the political scenes. However, when he began to show forth his intellectual stuff, the negative label that he was not a sellable candidate went underground.

Adedibu political dynasty

Folarin was a leading member of the political dynasty of a late aristocratic power broker in Oyo State, Nigeria, Chief Lamidi Ariyibi Akanji Adedibu, the strong man of Ibadan politics, in their heydays. They didn’t abandon their very own, more so when Makinde betrayed PDP during the 2023 presidential election. Curiosity Adedibu ‘s PA, former Deputy Governor Gbolarunmi has taken up the fight against Seyi Makinde. Even the late Lamidi Adedibu’ widow, Chief Bose Adedibu, who also doubles as PDP Zonal Women Leader has been unusually quiet during the Guber campaigns. The PDP people’s support for Folarin, so massive, has made core APC conservative members so insecure of possible implosion in the Oyo State APC after the elections.

However, Sen. Folarin would still need the disgruntled APC members and leaders, especially those who have embraced other parties such as  Accord Party (AP).

 

Idowu Ayodele, writes from Ibadan, Oyo state.