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Nigeria at a Crossroads: The Upcoming Elections || By Tibor P. Nagy, Jr

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THE Department of State agrees with the view that Nigeria’s February 2019 national elections are a critical test. The conduct of the elections could have significant consequences for the democratic trajectory of Nigeria, West Africa, and the entire continent.

The conduct of the 2015 Nigerian elections, although by no means perfect, was a step forward for Nigeria’s democracy. That contest resulted in Nigeria’s first-ever democratic transfer of power to a non-incumbent party, thereby increasing capacity and improving conduct of Nigerian democratic institutions and election bodies.

Key Goals and Actions 

In advance of the 2019 elections, the U.S. government continues to support the Nigerian goal of free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections that reflect the will of the Nigerian people. Through diplomacy, robust public engagement including with Nigeria’s youth and civil society, and democracy and governance programs, we are helping the country to strengthen its democratic institutions and processes. The United States does not support any single candidate. We support a democratic process that is free, fair, transparent, peaceful, and reflects the will of the Nigerian people.

The U.S. government has developed a comprehensive election strategy to plan and coordinate our efforts. We have three main objectives:

  1. Support a free and fair electoral process, including technical assistance to Nigeria’s election institutions, civil society, and political parties as well as U.S. government monitoring of the election around the country;
  2. Prevent and mitigate electoral violence, including conflict monitoring, peacebuilding programs, and peace messaging;
  3. Support civic and political engagement, including support to Nigerian civil society election observation and parallel vote tabulation, social media campaigns to engage youth including through our Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), “get out the vote” campaigns, voter education, and Nigerian efforts to counter disinformation.

To advance our strategy, we have sustained high-level diplomatic engagement from Washington as well as robust and regular engagement by our Ambassador, Consul General, USAID Mission Director, and other officials based in Abuja and Lagos. Earlier this year, President Trump welcomed President Buhari to the White House and conveyed our expectations for a credible election. Two Secretaries of State, USAID Administrator Green, Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan, and many others have either traveled to Nigeria or met with senior Nigerian officials in the United States to underscore our commitment to free, fair, transparent, and peaceful Nigerian elections in the last twelve months.

The State Department also hosted the Nigerian Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman in late October to observe U.S. preparation for mid-term elections and discuss challenges surrounding Nigeria’s elections. During this visit, INEC Chairman Yakubu observed early voting in Maryland, and met with Congressional staff, U.S. electoral civil society and legal experts, and U.S. government officials. The Chairman also met with USAID Administrator Green and Under Secretary for Political Affairs Hale.

I recently returned from Nigeria as part of my first trip to the continent. It was great to be back in Nigeria where I served as Charge d ’Affairs in 2016 and Deputy Chief of Mission from 1993-1995, and convey our expectations and concerns for the elections in person. I met with leadership from the two main political parties, INEC Chairman Yakubu, and civil society organizations, delivering public messages on the elections in a speech and in press engagements and private messages with key stakeholders.

That is just a summary of our Washington-focused diplomatic engagement on these elections. Our Ambassador and the Mission in Nigeria are working to advance our goals every day. My colleague from USAID will tell you more about the USAID programs in support of our three objectives. And, I can assure you that the U.S. government will remain intensely focused on the Nigerian elections in the coming months.

Expectations and Concerns 

I know many of you are watching the election closely. We share many of the areas of concern that you have voiced. We are monitoring and messaging – both publicly and privately – to mitigate a few key areas of risk that could jeopardize a free and fair process. For example:

  • potential attacks on the legitimacy of INEC and the electoral process for political gain;
  • intimidation and partisanship by security forces;
  • heightened insecurity, terrorist attacks on elections institutions, or violence towards voters, observers, or electoral officials;
  • an inability of large numbers of internally displaced persons or persons with disabilities to vote;
  • voter suppression, the use of armed gangs for voter intimidation, and other drivers of electoral violence, including a lack of official condemnation of hate speech and disinformation;
  • wide-spread vote buying that challenges the integrity of the electoral process.

On November 18, the start of official campaigning, our Mission in Abuja released a statement with 25 like-minded missions to express our desire to see free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections, specifically naming many of these concerns. I can assure you we will be watching closely for instigators of violence or those attempting to undermine the democratic process.

Many of you have expressed particular concern about violence around these elections. I can tell you from my impressions during my travels and my previous service in Nigeria that I fear there will be some violence around these elections, as has been the case with previous elections. I do not anticipate large-scale nation-wide conflict, but rather localized violence. We are already seeing increased tensions and polarization as the election approaches. We assess that politicians are turning to narratives of identity politics in an attempt to improve their popularity, with potentially serious consequences for national unity. However, Nigeria’s political system and society have weathered such tensions before.

But, let me underscore that the U.S. government takes the risk of any loss of human life extremely seriously. As I just mentioned, preventing electoral violence is one of our three main objectives for our diplomacy and programs. When I was in Nigeria, I asked officials from both major parties to sign pledges that their candidates would conduct peaceful campaigns, and both major candidates have now signed a peace pledge. In assessing potential “hot spots” for violence, we look at places that are historically volatile around elections such as Rivers and Borno states. We look at states that are currently tense, especially if state-level politics are contentious like those in Benue, Plateau, as well as those in high-stakes locations with large populations such as Kano. We regularly engage with civil society organizations working in these “hotspots” and support their peacebuilding efforts. USAID programs and our public diplomacy campaigns also support peace campaigns across the country, such as #VoteNotFight. Through our YALI Network Nigeria campaign, Nigerians have made over 10,000 pledges to boost voter participation, reject violence, and vote with integrity.

Conclusion

As I said in a speech in Nigeria, only the Nigerian people can determine lasting solutions and a path forward toward peace and stability. 2019 will be a significant year for Nigerian democracy – it has been 20 years since the country returned to democratic rule and this election’s youngest voters have never known a Nigeria without democracy. The upcoming elections provide Nigerians an opportunity to shape their country and solidify its place as a democratic leader in Africa.

 

 

Tibor P. Nagy, Jr. Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs U.S. House of Representatives, Sub-Committee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations

 

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Politics

Oyo South market men, women back Oseni, Tinubu, hail N90m support

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Market men and women across Oyo South Senatorial District have declared support for the senatorial ambition of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in the district, Engr. Aderemi Oseni, and reaffirmed their backing for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.

The traders said their endorsement was driven by the lawmaker’s sustained grassroots interventions and what they described as his people-centred representation.

‎The endorsement came on Monday during an interactive engagement in Ibadan with market stakeholders drawn from the nine local government areas of the senatorial district.

At the event, Oseni supported market men and women across the district with N90 million, with each of the nine local government areas receiving N10 million to boost petty trading, expand businesses and stimulate grassroots economic activity.

‎In a statement by his media aide, Idowu Ayodele, the lawmaker said the intervention was part of efforts to improve livelihoods and deepen economic inclusion, particularly among small-scale traders.

Oseni, who represents Ibarapa East/Ido Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives and chairs the House Committee on the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA), said empowering market operators remained central to his development agenda.

‎He said markets remained the heartbeat of local communities, noting that traders’ resilience continues to sustain families and drive local economies.

“This intervention is aimed at strengthening their businesses, easing economic pressure and encouraging enterprise at the grassroots,” he said.

The APC chieftain added that his representation would continue to focus on practical interventions with visible impact.

‎“Leadership must translate into visible impact. I remain committed to initiatives that support small businesses, create opportunities for growth and complement the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he said.

Oseni also canvassed support for President Tinubu among traders in Oyo South, saying stronger alignment between federal, state, senatorial and local government leadership would accelerate development in the state.

‎He listed the Tinubu administration’s initiatives to include the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND, measures to curb industrial actions in tertiary institutions, tuition-free technical colleges, construction and rehabilitation of major highways, agricultural support programmes and subsidies for cancer treatment, fuel subsidy removal, which he noted has boosted state and local government revenues.

‎He urged traders to mobilise support for APC candidates in the next general elections, expressing confidence that Tinubu’s re-election would further improve residents’ welfare.

Speaking on behalf of the traders, the Coordinator of Market Men and Women in Oyo South Senatorial District and Babaloja of Omi-Adio and Ido Local Government, Chief Odedele Waheed, commended the turnout and described the engagement as a demonstration of confidence in Oseni’s leadership.

He lauded the lawmaker for sustained grassroots development efforts, noting that the N90 million support would strengthen businesses across the district.

‎Odedele also commended the leadership of market men and women in Oyo State for granting traders approval to meet and interact with the lawmaker, saying the platform allowed them to express concerns and understand his vision for Oyo South.

The traders pledged to mobilise support across markets in the district in favour of Oseni’s electoral bid and President Tinubu’s re-election.

‎Those present included the Babaloja of Ibadan North East, Ibrahim Balogun; Babaloja of Ibadan South West, Rafiu Iyo; Babaloja of Ibadan North West, Alhaji Tajudeen Hammed; Alhaji Abdulraman Salawudeen; Asiwaju Oloja of Ibarapa Zone, Chief Okanlawon John Adebisi; Babaloja of Ibadan North, Chief Adewole Basirat; and Iyaloja of Ibarapa Central, Chief Ige Fausat, among others.

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INEC declares Oyebanji winner, APC retains Ekiti

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The Independent National Electoral Commission has declared the Governor of Ekiti State and candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Biodun Oyebanji, winner of Saturday’s governorship election in the state.

The Returning Officer for the election, Prof. Adenike Oladiji, announced the result at about 3:13 a.m. on Sunday in Ado-Ekiti, saying Oyebanji polled 319,224 votes to defeat his closest rivals and secure a second term in office.

According to Oladiji, who is the Vice-Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Akure, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Oluwole Oluyede, garnered 40,543 votes, while the African Democratic Congress candidate, Dare Bejide, secured 12,872 votes.

She said 384,940 voters were accredited for the election, while 375,777 valid votes were recorded. The electoral umpire also announced that 6,332 votes were rejected, bringing the total number of votes cast to 382,109.

The declaration capped a governorship poll largely adjudged peaceful by observers and security agencies, despite complaints of malfunctioning Bimodal Voter Accreditation System machines, delayed commencement of voting in some polling units and allegations of voter intimidation by opposition parties.

INEC said voting was conducted in all the 2,445 polling units across the state’s 16 local government areas, noting that 2,257 units, representing 92.31 per cent, opened before 8.30 a.m., while 188 polling units commenced accreditation and voting before 10.30 a.m. after experiencing minor delays.

The commission also commenced uploading polling unit results to its Results Viewing Portal shortly after the completion of voting and counting in several centres.

The PDP candidate, Oluyede, had expressed dissatisfaction with the conduct of the exercise at Ugele/Arokun Ward in Ikere Local Government Area, alleging that many prospective voters were disenfranchised due to BVAS-related challenges.

Speaking with journalists after voting at Polling Unit 006, he further alleged cases of harassment and intimidation of voters in the area.

Some elderly voters at the polling unit also lamented difficulties encountered during accreditation and urged INEC to urgently rectify the technical glitches.

The ADC candidate, Bejide, similarly alleged irregularities during the exercise.
However, Oyebanji dismissed the claims, insisting that those making allegations of electoral misconduct should provide credible evidence to support them.

The governor, who voted at Polling Unit 003, Okelele, Ikogosi-Ekiti, in Ekiti West Local Government Area, described the election as satisfactory and urged eligible voters yet to cast their ballots to do so peacefully.

The Commissioner of Police in charge of election security, Abayomi Shogunle, said no case of vote-buying was reported to security agencies throughout the exercise.

Election observers commended the peaceful atmosphere that characterised the poll but raised concerns over procedural inconsistencies.

The First Vice-President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Sebastian Anyia, described the process as orderly and peaceful, saying voter turnout was encouraging.

Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Women Trust Fund, Brenda Anugwom, lauded the resilience of female voters, many of whom remained at polling units for several hours with their children to exercise their franchise.

Yiaga Africa, however, expressed concern over discrepancies involving ballot papers, result sheets and INEC’s published list of candidates, warning that such inconsistencies could create challenges during collation and reconciliation of results.

The election observer group urged INEC to provide further clarification on the final list of participating parties and candidates and issue clear guidance to electoral officials handling result documentation.

Ahead of the poll, INEC and security agencies had repeatedly assured residents of their preparedness to deliver a peaceful, credible and transparent election, deploying personnel and restricting vehicular movement to forestall electoral violence and other offences.

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Oyo APC rejects Makinde’s planned December LG poll, vows boycott

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The opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State has rejected plans by the administration of Governor Seyi Makinde to conduct another local government election on December 26, 2026, describing the proposed exercise as illegal, premature and a calculated move to retain political influence at the grassroots beyond the governor’s tenure.

The party declared that it would neither participate in the election nor remain silent over what it termed an attempt to squander public resources on a process allegedly designed to install loyalists in the 33 local government councils and 351 wards across the state.

The controversy followed the decision of the Oyo State Independent Electoral Commission (OYSIEC) to shift the date earlier fixed for January 2027 to December 26, 2026, after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the timetable for the 2027 general elections.

The move has continued to generate debate among political observers, many of whom have questioned the urgency of conducting another council poll barely six months before the expiration of the tenure of the incumbent chairmen and councillors elected in the 2024 local government elections.

In a statement issued on Thursday in Ibadan by its Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare, the APC said it would not stop at boycotting the election but would also collaborate with “patriots and rational minds” to resist what it called an unnecessary expenditure of taxpayers’ money.

The party accused Governor Makinde of lacking commitment to local government autonomy, alleging that the administration had exercised undue control over council resources for more than seven years.

“The whole world knows that Governor Makinde does not believe in local government autonomy and, when it comes to democracy at the grassroots, he cannot be trusted for anything,” the statement said.

The APC alleged that the proposed poll was aimed at positioning individuals loyal to the governor in local councils before his exit from office on May 29, 2027, arguing that such a move would enable him to sustain political influence after leaving the Agodi Government House.

According to the opposition party, expectations among many residents are centred on ongoing efforts by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to strengthen local government autonomy and ensure that councils enjoy direct access to their statutory allocations without interference from state governments.

The APC also linked what it described as poor development outcomes in some rural communities to the operation of the state-local government joint account system. It cited communities such as Ahoro Esiele and Yawota in Oriire Local Government Area, which have reportedly faced security challenges, as examples of areas where local government resources should have translated into visible improvements.

“It is sad that Governor Makinde appears determined to sustain a system that has left many rural communities vulnerable despite huge allocations accruing to local governments monthly,” the party said.

The opposition further dismissed the local government elections conducted in 2020 and 2024 as lacking credibility, alleging that winners emerged through predetermined outcomes rather than a transparent electoral process.

“The fraud called local government polls in 2020 and 2024 should be the last the people of Oyo State would witness. Governor Makinde and his supporters should bury any thought of staging another charade in which results are announced without genuine voting and public offices become tools for the diversion of public funds,” the statement added.

The APC consequently urged officials of OYSIEC to halt preparations for the proposed December election, warning against actions capable of undermining democratic values and public confidence in the electoral process.

As of the time of filing this report, neither the Oyo State Government nor OYSIEC had issued an official response to the allegations raised by the opposition party.

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