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Nigeria at a Crossroads: The Upcoming Elections || By Tibor P. Nagy, Jr

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THE Department of State agrees with the view that Nigeria’s February 2019 national elections are a critical test. The conduct of the elections could have significant consequences for the democratic trajectory of Nigeria, West Africa, and the entire continent.

The conduct of the 2015 Nigerian elections, although by no means perfect, was a step forward for Nigeria’s democracy. That contest resulted in Nigeria’s first-ever democratic transfer of power to a non-incumbent party, thereby increasing capacity and improving conduct of Nigerian democratic institutions and election bodies.

Key Goals and Actions 

In advance of the 2019 elections, the U.S. government continues to support the Nigerian goal of free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections that reflect the will of the Nigerian people. Through diplomacy, robust public engagement including with Nigeria’s youth and civil society, and democracy and governance programs, we are helping the country to strengthen its democratic institutions and processes. The United States does not support any single candidate. We support a democratic process that is free, fair, transparent, peaceful, and reflects the will of the Nigerian people.

The U.S. government has developed a comprehensive election strategy to plan and coordinate our efforts. We have three main objectives:

  1. Support a free and fair electoral process, including technical assistance to Nigeria’s election institutions, civil society, and political parties as well as U.S. government monitoring of the election around the country;
  2. Prevent and mitigate electoral violence, including conflict monitoring, peacebuilding programs, and peace messaging;
  3. Support civic and political engagement, including support to Nigerian civil society election observation and parallel vote tabulation, social media campaigns to engage youth including through our Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), “get out the vote” campaigns, voter education, and Nigerian efforts to counter disinformation.

To advance our strategy, we have sustained high-level diplomatic engagement from Washington as well as robust and regular engagement by our Ambassador, Consul General, USAID Mission Director, and other officials based in Abuja and Lagos. Earlier this year, President Trump welcomed President Buhari to the White House and conveyed our expectations for a credible election. Two Secretaries of State, USAID Administrator Green, Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan, and many others have either traveled to Nigeria or met with senior Nigerian officials in the United States to underscore our commitment to free, fair, transparent, and peaceful Nigerian elections in the last twelve months.

The State Department also hosted the Nigerian Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman in late October to observe U.S. preparation for mid-term elections and discuss challenges surrounding Nigeria’s elections. During this visit, INEC Chairman Yakubu observed early voting in Maryland, and met with Congressional staff, U.S. electoral civil society and legal experts, and U.S. government officials. The Chairman also met with USAID Administrator Green and Under Secretary for Political Affairs Hale.

I recently returned from Nigeria as part of my first trip to the continent. It was great to be back in Nigeria where I served as Charge d ’Affairs in 2016 and Deputy Chief of Mission from 1993-1995, and convey our expectations and concerns for the elections in person. I met with leadership from the two main political parties, INEC Chairman Yakubu, and civil society organizations, delivering public messages on the elections in a speech and in press engagements and private messages with key stakeholders.

That is just a summary of our Washington-focused diplomatic engagement on these elections. Our Ambassador and the Mission in Nigeria are working to advance our goals every day. My colleague from USAID will tell you more about the USAID programs in support of our three objectives. And, I can assure you that the U.S. government will remain intensely focused on the Nigerian elections in the coming months.

Expectations and Concerns 

I know many of you are watching the election closely. We share many of the areas of concern that you have voiced. We are monitoring and messaging – both publicly and privately – to mitigate a few key areas of risk that could jeopardize a free and fair process. For example:

  • potential attacks on the legitimacy of INEC and the electoral process for political gain;
  • intimidation and partisanship by security forces;
  • heightened insecurity, terrorist attacks on elections institutions, or violence towards voters, observers, or electoral officials;
  • an inability of large numbers of internally displaced persons or persons with disabilities to vote;
  • voter suppression, the use of armed gangs for voter intimidation, and other drivers of electoral violence, including a lack of official condemnation of hate speech and disinformation;
  • wide-spread vote buying that challenges the integrity of the electoral process.

On November 18, the start of official campaigning, our Mission in Abuja released a statement with 25 like-minded missions to express our desire to see free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections, specifically naming many of these concerns. I can assure you we will be watching closely for instigators of violence or those attempting to undermine the democratic process.

Many of you have expressed particular concern about violence around these elections. I can tell you from my impressions during my travels and my previous service in Nigeria that I fear there will be some violence around these elections, as has been the case with previous elections. I do not anticipate large-scale nation-wide conflict, but rather localized violence. We are already seeing increased tensions and polarization as the election approaches. We assess that politicians are turning to narratives of identity politics in an attempt to improve their popularity, with potentially serious consequences for national unity. However, Nigeria’s political system and society have weathered such tensions before.

But, let me underscore that the U.S. government takes the risk of any loss of human life extremely seriously. As I just mentioned, preventing electoral violence is one of our three main objectives for our diplomacy and programs. When I was in Nigeria, I asked officials from both major parties to sign pledges that their candidates would conduct peaceful campaigns, and both major candidates have now signed a peace pledge. In assessing potential “hot spots” for violence, we look at places that are historically volatile around elections such as Rivers and Borno states. We look at states that are currently tense, especially if state-level politics are contentious like those in Benue, Plateau, as well as those in high-stakes locations with large populations such as Kano. We regularly engage with civil society organizations working in these “hotspots” and support their peacebuilding efforts. USAID programs and our public diplomacy campaigns also support peace campaigns across the country, such as #VoteNotFight. Through our YALI Network Nigeria campaign, Nigerians have made over 10,000 pledges to boost voter participation, reject violence, and vote with integrity.

Conclusion

As I said in a speech in Nigeria, only the Nigerian people can determine lasting solutions and a path forward toward peace and stability. 2019 will be a significant year for Nigerian democracy – it has been 20 years since the country returned to democratic rule and this election’s youngest voters have never known a Nigeria without democracy. The upcoming elections provide Nigerians an opportunity to shape their country and solidify its place as a democratic leader in Africa.

 

 

Tibor P. Nagy, Jr. Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs U.S. House of Representatives, Sub-Committee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations

 

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Oyo: Alli condemns attacks on wife, APC candidates, alleges APM involvement

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The Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organisation has raised the alarm over alleged attacks on the wife of the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate in Oyo State, Alhaja Tawakalitu Alli, and two other APC candidates during separate political activities in Ibadan on Wednesday.

The organisation alleged that suspected supporters of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) were responsible for the incidents, which occurred at Ayeye, Orita-Merin and Idi-Arere areas of the state capital.

Mrs Alli was allegedly attacked during a medical outreach she organised at Ibikunle House, Ayeye, while the campaign trains of the APC candidate for Oyo South Senatorial District, Aderemi Oseni, and the party’s candidate for Ibadan North-West/Ibadan South-West Federal Constituency, Folake Olunloyo-Oshinowo, were also reportedly attacked during separate campaign events.

Reacting to the incidents, the Director of Media and Publicity of the Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organisation, Bisi Oladele, described the attacks as “unwarranted” and “barbaric,” warning that political violence must not be allowed to return to the state.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, Oladele called on Governor Seyi Makinde and the APM governorship candidate, Bimbo Adekanmbi, to rein in their supporters and ensure that political activities in the state were conducted peacefully.

He said, “The Senator Sharafadeen Alli Campaign Organisation is at the least miffed by the unwarranted and barbaric attacks by Allied Peoples Movement hoodlums on Alhaja Tawakalitu Alli during a medical outreach she organised at Ibikunle House, Ayeye, Ibadan, on Wednesday.

“Sponsored hoodlums also attacked the APC candidate for Oyo South Senatorial District, Hon. Aderemi Oseni, and the party’s candidate for Ibadan North-West/Ibadan South-West Federal Constituency, Hon. Folake Olunloyo-Oshinowo, during separate campaign events at Agbaje Market, Orita-Merin, and Idi-Arere, Ibadan.”

The organisation urged security agencies to investigate the incidents and bring anyone found culpable to book.

It further accused those behind the alleged attacks of attempting to create an atmosphere of fear ahead of the 2027 elections, insisting that APC candidates would not be prevented from meeting with voters across the state.

Oladele said the right of political parties and candidates to campaign peacefully was guaranteed by law, adding that political differences should not become a justification for violence.

He said, “APC candidates and supporters in Oyo State will not surrender our inalienable rights to freely associate, gather and campaign within the ambits of the law. No amount of threats will deter the party from campaigning across Oyo State.”

The campaign organisation also appealed to the state government and political parties to focus on issue-based campaigns and allow voters to freely assess the programmes and candidates seeking their support.

It said, “The good people of Oyo State deserve issue-based campaigns, not violence. We advise Governor Makinde, Adekanmbi and other political parties to focus on presenting their programmes and policies to the electorate, not visiting violence on the people.”

The organisation maintained that the alleged attacks would not stop APC candidates from taking their campaigns to the people, urging political actors to place the peace and security of the state above their individual ambitions.

It also called on the security agencies to ensure that political campaigns ahead of the 2027 elections were conducted in an atmosphere free from intimidation and violence.

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Alli hails Tinubu, Uzodimma over rescue of 20 Oyo corps members

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Senator Sharafadeen Alli, the All Progressives Congress governorship candidate in Oyo State, has commended President Bola Tinubu, Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, and security agencies over the rescue of 20 prospective National Youth Service Corps members abducted in Imo State.

The prospective corps members, who were travelling from Oyo State to their NYSC orientation camps, regained their freedom on Wednesday, seven days after they were abducted along the Owerri-Onitsha Road in Imo State. The police confirmed that the victims were rescued at Amakohia Ubi Village following sustained search-and-rescue operations.

Alli, in a statement issued on Wednesday by the Director of Media and Publicity of his campaign organisation, Bisi Oladele, described the development as a welcome relief to the victims, their families and the people of Oyo State.

He said the successful rescue demonstrated the commitment of the Federal Government and security agencies to protecting the lives and property of Nigerians.

The APC candidate commended Tinubu and Uzodimma for their leadership, while praising the security agencies for what he described as their courage, professionalism and coordinated efforts in securing the release of the victims.

Alli said the development was particularly reassuring because the victims were young Nigerians on their way to commence the mandatory national service when they were abducted.

He, however, urged security agencies not to relent, calling for stronger intelligence gathering and closer inter-agency collaboration to prevent similar incidents in the future.

The senator also called for the perpetrators of the abduction to be identified and brought to justice, saying the successful rescue should be followed by efforts to ensure that those responsible face the law.

He appealed to members of the public to support security agencies by providing timely and useful information that could assist in preventing crime and protecting lives.

According to him, the safety of citizens cannot be left to security agencies alone, stressing that government and the public must work together to create a safer society.

Alli expressed sympathy with the victims and their families over the ordeal, praying for the speedy recovery of the rescued prospective corps members and emotional healing for their relatives following the traumatic experience.

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2027: Oseni condemns attack on campaign train, demands probe

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The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for Oyo South Senatorial District, Hon. Aderemi Oseni, has condemned the attack on his campaign train at Agbaje Market in Ibadan North-West Local Government Area of Oyo State, calling on security agencies to investigate the incident.

The attack occurred on Wednesday afternoon when Oseni and his team were visiting market associations in Agbaje, Ayeye and Idikan as part of his consultation ahead of the 2027 elections. The trouble started while he was addressing traders at Agbaje Market, when armed political thugs reportedly attacked the venue and started shooting, forcing people to run for safety.

According to a statement by his media aide, Idowu Ayodele, some vehicles in the campaign convoy, including a security utility vehicle, and their windshields were hit  by bullets during the attack. The incident caused panic among traders, supporters and other residents at the market.

Security operatives attached to the campaign team quickly moved in and helped to control the situation, allowing the lawmaker, members of his entourage and supporters to leave the area safely. Oseni thanked God that no casualty was recorded and commended the security personnel for their intervention.

Describing the incident as disturbing, the chairman House Committee on Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) said it was an attack not only on his campaign but also on the right of people to take part in political activities without fear.

“This is a brazen assault on peace, democracy and the constitutional right of every citizen to move freely and participate in political activities without fear or intimidation,” he said.

The APC candidate said the incident would not stop him from meeting the people across Oyo South, adding that his consultations were aimed at listening to their concerns and understanding what they expect from whoever represents them. He said politics should be about ideas, records and the ability to serve the people, rather than violence and intimidation.

Oseni appealed to his supporters not to retaliate, urging them to remain calm and allow the security agencies to deal with those behind the attack. “I appeal to our supporters to remain calm and law-abiding. We must not allow anyone to provoke us into taking the law into our own hands,” he said.

He also thanked the traders, residents, party leaders and supporters who came out for the consultation despite the incident. According to him, the attack would not change the goodwill he enjoys among the people, insisting that voters should be allowed to freely decide who they want to represent them.

“No attack, intimidation or destruction of campaign materials can determine the choice of the people. At the end of the day, it is the people who will decide. Our duty is to present our records and our vision to them, and their decision must be respected,” Oseni said.

He called on the Oyo State Commissioner of Police, the Department of State Services (DSS) and other relevant security agencies to thoroughly investigate the attack, identify those responsible and ensure that anyone found culpable is brought to justice. He said political violence should not be allowed to become part of the build-up to the 2027 elections.

The consultation was attended by the APC candidate for Ibadan North-West/Ibadan South-West Federal Constituency, Hon. Folake Olunloyo; Hon. Lowo Obisesan; party leaders, market stakeholders, supporters and other chieftains.

Oseni said he would continue his consultations across Oyo South, insisting that the incident would not stop him from meeting the people.

“We will continue to go to the people. We will continue to listen and engage peacefully. We will not be intimidated. The people deserve the freedom to choose, and that freedom must be protected,” he stressed.

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