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Elections: Lessons from Oyo to Nigeria

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The ides of March are come,” Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar says in utter derision and dismissal of a life-and-death warning. And the soothsayer replies “Ay, Caesar; but not gone.” And truly, they were not gone. The 2023 elections should be over by now but they are not. There are people everywhere mocking poets and prophets. Clouds of uncertainty are hanging. Even our president has had to issue a statement denying saying in secret that he won’t hand over to his victorious Khalifa. There are threats of protests and counter-threats of arrest over the process and the outcome of the presidential election held over a month ago. Labour Party’s vice presidential candidate vowed on national TV that the president-elect won’t be sworn in; the election winner replied with a vow to arrest and lock up Labour and its symbols even before he is sworn in. There was a dream: What does it mean to have flooded in a dry land? You sleep and see two hundred elephants clinking tusks; you also see two hundred buffalos pooling together with four hundred horns. If the inner eye is still seeing, you will know that the world is shifting and drifting – or about to. Confusion and chaos are ingredients of war and they appear afoot. Since that is the case, what I look for now are streaks of hope, to keep my sanity.

My ancestors in Old Oyo said with pride – and even arrogance – that they were different from other species in the specificity of their character and characteristics. “You can only hear of Oyo imitators; Oyo does not imitate anybody.” Their neighbours never liked hearing that from them but they never stopped acting it and shouting it from their rooftops. The 2023 elections may not be over in Abuja and other states but the governorship election is over in Oyo State and that is where I hang my consolation and escape from Nigeria’s current madness. There was an election to elect the governor of Oyo State on Saturday, March 18. INEC announced a winner and everyone who fought the victor immediately dropped the sword and embraced the victorious. I found that to be very strange in rancorous Nigeria. If you know any other state in Nigeria where that has happened, please tell me. There is even no imitator. But why?

I read a cartoon in a national newspaper when I was in secondary school. The newspaper I cannot remember, but the cartoon and its caption I cannot ever forget: A former president, Nnamdi Azikiwe, is shown counselling a victorious young politician on power and its ephemerality. “My son,” the ex-leader says with sadness, “I have been to the mountaintop; it is quite slippery there.” What makes the mountaintop that slippery? Because I work and live in Ibadan, three days before the March 18 governorship election in Oyo State, a senior newspaper editor in Lagos sent me a text: “What are the chances of the incumbent?” I replied that “the man respects the people and has done well all around, so, he will win with more than 60 per cent of the votes.” He kept quiet and left me with my “unrealistic projection.” After the results were announced on Sunday 19th, that editor sent me another text: “You said so. He won. Great. I was scared for him.” I replied with the smile emoji and added that the winner “did not leave the street for a day”; he knew the terrain and served it and so could not have slipped on Election Day.

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Eleven incumbent governors contested elections to retain their seats for four more years; one of them lost and has been very quiet; another is still fighting to breathe; eight won with a lot of panting and limping back home from the battlefield; the man in Oyo has been congratulated by all his opponents. So, what made the re-election way smooth for one and bumpy for others? There was a 14th-century Islamic scholar called Ibn Khaldun, author of the Muqaddimah. Some scholars say he was the greatest social scientist of the Middle Ages; others say he was “the father of historiography, sociology, economics, and demography studies.” Ibn Khaldun propounded a theory of leadership which states how leaders emerge through blood ties and group feelings. He calls that process Asabiyyah. But it is not enough for a leader to emerge; how about the sustenance of that leadership? It is that sustenance that presidents and governors seek in the name of second-term ambitions. But not all who seek to stand. Why is the mountaintop slippery? Ibn Khaldun had an answer. He came up with a list of what he called the personal qualities of a leader – the “perfecting details” that sustain leadership. What are those details? He said they include “generosity, the forgiveness of error, patience, and perseverance, hospitality towards guests, maintenance of the indigent, patience in unpleasant situations, execution of commitments, respect for the religious law, reverence for old men and teachers, fairness, meekness, consideration to the needs of followers, adherence to the obligations of religious laws, and avoidance of deception and fraud.” (See Ibn Khaldun of North Africa: An AD 1377 Theory of Leadership (2008) by Yusuf Sidani).

The man who wrote the list above died on 17 March 1406; that was 617 years ago. Now, look at the menu again. Which of the “details” is not desirable in a leader today, six centuries after the theorizer died? Do you think a man would have those attributes and be rejected by his people? Which of the items there was not demanded by voters in the last election? My people say that what money cannot buy, good character (ìwà rere) will get for you free of charge. Father of contemporary Yoruba theatre, Chief Hubert Ogunde, in one of his songs, prayed to his Maker to give him a good head and a pair of good legs. Bí mo l’órí ire, Elédàá, jé kí nl’ésè ire. Luck makes some people leaders, but their lack of character soon destroys their good heads. Every Ibn Khaldun perfecting detail you read above was a factor in the last election in every state across the country. The fewer a contestant had in his basket, the more difficult it was for the people to embrace him. That was why some lost their deposit in that election and some others had to break into the strong room of the people’s mandate by altering result sheets and robbing the law of its teeth. Some resorted to buying or breaking voters; some had to kill and maim to force in their win – something armed robbers do and get shot for.

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I do not know who gave Oyo State its “Pacesetter” appellation; neither do I know the composer of its vaunting anthem that proclaims it as the Asiwaju of Nigerian states. But I know it has provided leadership in the 2023 election with the post-election conduct of its leaders across all parties. Nigeria should ask questions and learn from that state and how its governor calmly got a second term. The incumbent got all the critical divides at his back on Election Day, and this included those who voted for Peter Obi on February 25. The Igbo who voted in Oyo shouted ‘Nwanne’ while counting the votes of the incumbent – I watched a video clip. For once, we found a needle and a thread to suture the ruptured tendons of Nigeria in the little corner of that state. The incumbent governor, Mr Seyi Makinde, won; his main challengers, Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC and Adebayo Adelabu of the Accord party wasted no time before congratulating him. Their powerful backers did the same. I saw grace and poise in the winner embracing the defeated; I saw dignity in the losers knowing when to apply the brakes by hugging the man who levelled them. Brazilian novelist, Paulo Coelho, once wrote that “it is always important to know when something has reached its end. Closing circles, shutting doors, finishing chapters, it doesn’t matter what we call it; what matters is to leave in the past those moments in life that are over.” Those who drew the curtain in Oyo State did so after a thorough review of the process and the outcome. They were satisfied that they truly lost and were honourable enough to move on. If there was a theft, the owner definitely won’t congratulate the winner. In other states and at the federal level, circles are still unclosed and doors of electoral acrimony are still ajar. We should understand. It cannot be over where justice suffered violence and where justice has served only the powerful. William Shakespeare says in King Lear that “nothing can come of nothing.” That is why we hear cries of plots and counterplots toward May 29, 2023. And, in several states, the dust of war is still up and blinding; swords remain unsheathed as the campaigns appear moving to the Philippi – the spot where noble Brutus and the ghost of Caesar fought their last battle.

This country is like the ouroboros, a serpent eating its tail; a dragon continually devouring itself. Ancient Egypt created the myth and its symbol and passed them on to Ancient Greece. Centuries later, the Norse created a myth of their serpent, the Jörmungandr, and got it to encircle the world with its tail in its mouth. The president-elect has that self-constricting emblem on his cap. It is an endless twerk of creation and destruction. Contests for power in Nigeria forever move on like that, slithering and serpentine and encircling. That is why the inferno of an election lit over a month ago is still burning. It is the reason there won’t be an end to the confusion of Nigeria with its drama plots and sub-plots driven by ethnic and religious baits. Baiters are persons who intentionally make someone angry. They are out trying to tie the forehead furs of the Igbo tiger to the occipital hairs of the Yoruba lion. We saw them in some southern states, but I refer here to excusers of criminality in the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) who at the weekend tried to smuggle their habitual defence of criminal herdsmen into the crisis of this election season. The ACF stated the political tension in the South, mocking the East, and deriding the West; it then veered off to valorize banditry and terrorism. It claimed there was no evidence linking their bandits to killings and kidnappings in southern forests. This is what the ACF wrote: “In the wake of the ethnic crisis, Yoruba and Igbo partisans freely profile one another and accuse themselves of criminal conduct, including as cheats, bandits, kidnappers, land-grabbers, etc.” That list of insults is a concoction from the ACF. The rhetoric down south is bad, very bad, but it has not reached the level itemized by the northern mouthpiece. The ACF did not stop there; it doubled down with an errant defence of its bandits: “Ironically, ethnic profiling and accusations of criminality without evidence have always been levelled against hapless northerners, especially the so-called herders or economic migrants, by the South and mostly supported by the press. They stigmatized northerners, convicting them for offences they know nothing about. Northerners were forced to live under the shadow of guilt and criminality without trial. Perpetrators of these injustices couldn’t have known that a day such as this would come when they will inflict injustice not on northerners but against one another.” Imagine that! What are we saying, what are they saying? Do not blame them for the watery gbègìrì; blame the thieving goat that ate the southern beans. Was it not Mamman Vatsa who warned that the day you start mocking yourself, others will join you? We will keep engaging them until Nigeria is weaned of snakes and predators; they will not prevail.

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Dr Lasisi Olagunju, a celebrated columnist writes from Ibadan, Oyo state

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Opinion

OYO101: ADELABU— When will this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant stop?| By Muftau Gbadegesin

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The Minister of Power, Oloye Bayo Adelabu, has apologized for lashing out at Nigerians over poor energy management.

I hope Nigerians, especially our people from Oyo state, forgive and overlook his Freudian slip. Given that apology, I believe the minister has realized his mistakes and will subsequently act accordingly. In days that followed the minister’s vituperation, many otherwise cool-headed and easy-going observers quickly joined the band of critics and cynics. By the way, what BAND do you think those critics belonged to?

Plus, how best do you describe kicking someone who is down already? The flurry of condemnation that followed Oloye Adelabu’s ‘AC-Freezer’ sermon must have surprised and shocked him. Instead of sticking to his prepared speech, he decided to dash off by telling Nigerians some home truth. Quite amusingly, the truth, it turns out, is not the truth Nigerians want to hear. And as they say, ‘There is your truth, my truth, and the Truth.’ The fact is that Nigerians are angry at many things, the sudden hike in electricity tariff being one.

Perhaps the Minister’s press conference, an avenue to calm fraying nerves and address critical issues, quickly congealed into an arena for an intellectual dogfight – if you watch the video, you will hear the murmur that rented the air the moment that terse statement was uttered. While some influencers tried to downplay the minister’s jibe, they were instead flogged in their whitewashing game. Frankly, I am not interested in the minister and the energy management brouhaha. What I am indeed interested in is what the ministry and minister are doing to restore light in a country where darkness has permeated much of its landscape – don’t mind the confusion the minister and the ministry have created to disrupt the conversation around that vital sector of the economy.

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‘Up NEPA’, Lol

Trust Nigerians. When the defunct National Electric Power Authority failed to end the perennial and persistent darkness in the country, it was ironically dubbed ‘Never Expect Power Always.’ And when the company morphed into PHCN, Nigerians berated the name change, saying the company would hold more power than it would release. True to that assumption, PHCN indeed held more power than it gave to the people.

Then, in 2013, Nigerians woke up to the news of DISCOs, GENCOS, GASCOs, and so on. DISCOs for distribution companies, GENCOs for generating companies, and Gascos for gas suppliers. Of all these critical value chains, only DISCOs were handed down to private enterprises. Think of IBEDC, AEDC, IEDC, BEDC, etc. Unfortunately, the privatization of the distribution chain hasn’t transformed the sector’s fortune for good. More interested in the money but less motivated to do the dirty work of revamping the infrastructure.

Like a typical Nigerian in a ‘band E’ environment, I grew up chanting the ‘Up NEPA’ mantra whenever power is restored at home – and I am not alone in this mass choir. As a rural boy, the ‘Up NEPA’ chant is etched into our skulls from time immemorial. Sometimes, you can’t even tell when you start to join the chorus; you only know that you say it automatically and auto-magisterially. Many years down the lane, the persistent power cuts, blackouts, and grid collapses have worsened. And under Minister Adelabu, power supply, based on my little experience, has never reached this depressing point in history.

As a content creator, I can tell you Oloye Adelabu may likely go down in history as the most inconsequential minister of power unless something drastic is done to restore people’s confidence and bring about a steady, stable, frequent, and regular power supply. You may have seen on social media how most Nigerians who migrated abroad often find it difficult to shed that ‘Up NEPA’ chant from themselves once a power cut is fixed in those countries. Like the rest of their countrymen, they have internalized that mantra. Only after they’ve acclimatized to their new environment would they become healed of that verbal virus ultimately.

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‘Adelabu, end this chant’

This is a challenge. In my column welcoming Oloye Adelabu into the critical ministry of power, I asked a rhetorical question: Can Adelabu end the penkelemesi in the power sector? In Nigeria, is there any other economic sector troubled by multidimensional and multifaceted peculiar messes than the power sector? Adelabu’s grandfather, Adegoke Adelabu, was nicknamed Penkelemesi. History has it that the colonial masters, tired of that Ibadan politician, decided to describe him in the punchiest way possible: a peculiar mess. Quickly, a peculiar mess spread across like wildfire: the white men have described Adegoke as a peculiar mess. Translated to Yoruba, we have Penkelemesi. In retrospect, the minister must have realized the situation he met on the ground is better than what is obtainable now. He needs to own up, chin up, and take full responsibility for this total blackout.

‘Minister Fashola’

Babatunde Fashola, SAN is a clever man. For four years as minister of power, he avoided cutting controversy. But long before he was appointed, he had stirred quite an expectation around fixing the rot in the sector. He had jokingly said his party, the APC, would resolve the crisis of perennial blackout in one fell swoop. He categorically gave a timeline of when Nigerians in the cities and villages will start to enjoy regular power supply: six months. After four years of setbacks, Minister Fashola was forced to eat his vomit: the power crisis in Nigeria is deep-seated and chaotic. Oloye Adelabu has made more enemies than friends in less than a year. The minister may survey his performance among Nigerians to test this hypothesis. The truth is the truth. The mismatch between the minister’s area of competence and his assigned portfolio hasn’t helped matters as well. And this is a cavity many of his critics and traducers are banking on.

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For the first time in decades, Adelabu stands on the threshold of history: will he end this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant once and for all? Time will tell.

OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state. He can be reached via @muftaugbade on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.

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Yahaya Bello: Do we need to prosecute ex-govs?

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I followed the drama of unimaginable scenes that unfolded in Abuja last week, as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) moved to arrest and arraign the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, in respect of alleged mismanagement of funds. I called it a drama of unimaginable scenes because the EFCC had laid siege to the house since very early in the day, knowing that its target, the “White Lion of Kogi State” was holed up somewhere in the compound.

But before the very eyes of the EFCC operatives, the man they had waited all day to catch, just slipped off their hands effortlessly. They claimed that he was rescued by his cousin, the incumbent governor of the state, Usman Ododo, who is protected by constitutional immunity. But EFCC lawyers would claim that Section 12 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) empowers the body to break into houses to effect arrest.

Maybe that’s a story for another day. But it was surprising they didn’t think of that option. Bello was said to have stayed put in the Government House Lokoja since indication emerged that the EFCC was on his trail. So the easiest thing for the Kogi governor to do was to drive into the troubled house and then fish out a troubled cousin.

The Yahaya Bello saga is just the latest drama between the EFCC and former governors. Some time ago, we witnessed the Ayo Fayose drama. The former Ekiti State governor, whom EFCC was unable to arrest while in office put up some drama when he arrived at EFCC’s office wearing a branded ‘T’ shirt with the inscription: “EFCC I’m here.” Some of his loyalists helped him with things he needed to use in the EFCC detention.

Aside from that, we have also witnessed the Willie Obiano saga. The former governor of Anambra State was accused of misappropriating the state’s funds and has since been taken to court. Immediately after handing over the reins of power in Awka, the man had planned to jet out of the country but had to be stopped as EFCC operatives grabbed him at that exit point. We were also witnesses to the back and forth between the former Governor Abdulaziz Yari of Zamfara State and the EFCC. The commission had accused Yari of mismanaging billions of Naira and moved to arraign him.

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There were accusations and counter-accusations until Yari landed in the Senate, and things became quiet. The drama between the ex-Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, was interesting while it lasted. The commission had laid siege to the residence and eventually entered through the roof. We saw a terrified Okorocha and his household, praying fervently for God’s intervention as operatives jumped in to grab their suspect.

The list I have above is by no means exhaustive of the dramatic exchanges between the EFCC and some former governors accused of one financial misdeed or the other in recent years. One thing is, however, common to all the cases, after the the initial bubbles, the whole thing dies down as the retreating waves. Next to nothing is heard of the cases as the neck-breaking snail-speed of the nation’s judicial system takes over. Year after year, it is about one injunction or the other. Many of the accused had gone ahead to seek elective posts and won, many others have taken appointments and the law cannot stop them from utilising the benefits of the allegedly looted resources to gain an advantage since our laws presume individuals innocent until proven guilty.

The books of the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPCC) are full of such individuals who have allegations of hundreds of billions of Naira hanging on their necks. Many of them are busy swinging the official chairs in government offices as we speak. God forbid, one of such should, gain control of the nation’s presidency one day!

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Well, to forestall such a scary development, I think we need an antidote to these endless anti-corruption trials. The endless trial is not just a drain on the energy of the lady justice. It drills a gaping hole in the state’s resources as well. Imagine the legal charges the state incurs in taking several cases through the layers of courts. It is also possible some of the accused, who are innocent of the accusation could die in the process of trials and thus carry an unnecessary burden of guilt (at least in the eyes of the public) into their graves. The late governor of Oyo State, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala was able to win his case against the EFCC after 13 years, he died not long after the ‘not guilty’ verdict was pronounced. Former President of the Senate, Adolphus Wabara was also on the bribe-for-budget case preferred against him for more than ten years. Luckily, he was alive to receive his ‘not guilty’ verdict as well. Some may not be that lucky.

To stem this tide of seemingly endless trials of politically exposed persons, I want to suggest amendments to the EFCC and ICPC Acts to lay much premium on thorough and discreet probes of financial crimes rather than dump the results of the investigations in the court, the suspects should be called in and shown the traces of the illegally taken funds and their destinations. If the suspect is ready to refund at least two-thirds of the stolen funds to the coffers of the government, the agency involved, under the supervision of a competent court, could sign an irrevocable non-disclosure agreement and collect the funds into a special basket created for that purpose and which will be used for infrastructural development.

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Such an agreement should also take care of any possible penchant for grandstanding by any politician who could mount the podium one day and claim never to have been indicted of financial crimes. As much as the government would not waste time and resources prosecuting him or her, he should also be barred from active politics and playing godfather roles. If we do this, we will not only save time and resources, but we will get back a sizeable amount of the looted funds into government coffers for developmental purposes.

By Taiwo Adisa

This piece was first Published By Sunday Tribune, April 21, 2024.

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Tinubu’s Naira Miracle: Abracadabra or Economic Wizardry? | By Adeniyi Olowofela

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Prior to assuming the presidency of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu garnered the confidence of the majority of Nigerians with the promise of rescuing the country’s economy from the impending disaster it faced.

For the past 43 years, the Naira has been steadily depreciating against the Dollar, as illustrated in Figure One.

The graphs below unequivocally depict the exponential rise of the Naira against the Dollar from 1979 to 2022. This sustained upward trend would have theoretically resulted in the Naira reaching 2,500 Naira to one Dollar by now.

 

 

This situation led some individuals to hoard dollars in anticipation of profiting from further devaluation of the Naira.

However, under President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, the Nigerian federal government successfully halted the expected decline of the Naira.

The Naira has appreciated to 1,200 Naira to a Dollar (Figure 2), contrary to the projected 2,500 Naira to one Dollar, based on the exponential pattern observed in Figure One.

This achievement demonstrates unprecedented economic prowess. If this trajectory continues, the Naira may appreciate to 500 Naira against 1 Dollar before the conclusion of President Bola Tinubu’s first term in 2027.

While the purchasing power of the average Nigerian remains relatively low, there is a palpable sense of hope on the rise.

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It is hoped that the Economic Team advising the President will continue their efforts to stabilize the economy and prevent its collapse until Nigeria achieves economic prosperity.

The government’s ability to reverse the Naira’s free fall within a year can be likened to a remarkable feat, reminiscent of a lizard falling from the top of an Iroko tree unscathed, then nodding its head in self-applause.

Mr. President, we applaud your efforts.

 

Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela, the Commissioner representing Oyo State at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), writes from Abuja.

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