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Why Aregbesola should look before he leaps

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File photo of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola

In life you wonder sometimes, why certain things unfold as they do. The philosophers summarize these, as mysteries. The scientists described them as the dynamics of nature. In Yorubaland, it is known as ‘adiitu’ meaning ‘the complex waiting to be revealed’. By whatever nomenclature, it is not a straight forward thing.

Subject to logical  analysis, sequence and reasoning, the frosty relationship between the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT), the Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola on one hand and Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of Osun State on the other hand is becoming a sore taste.

Till date, Asiwaju Tinubu remains the prominent politician in Southwest Nigeria without qualms. He has been so since he successfully governed Lagos as a two term Governor. Give it to Tinubu in the political history of Southwest and indeed Nigeria, he has been very successful in raising many men from obscurity to limelight, and mentoring some of them to relevance.

Ogbeni Aregbesola, among others, has immensely benefited from this avowed strong virtue of Tinubu. From no public pedigree, the APC leader made him a 2-term Commissioner for Works, a juicy ministry, in a flourishing Lagos State, one of Afica’s most prosperous commercial states. From there, Tinubu bankrolled his elections as the candidate of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), to the time, his mandate was restored in 2008. Throughout the struggle characterised to recover his mandate through election petitions to the then highest court for electoral matter, the Appeal Court, the former governor of Lagos State never waivered, never got discouraged, never denied or betrayed Aregbesola. And they finally won….. both Aregbesola and Tinubu.

During Aregbesola’s hey days as Osun State governors, the current state governor, Oyetola was in the background as a silent strategist in the overall success scheme. As it is common to every state governor in Nigeria, the issue of successor always come with intrigue and suspicion. Although , rumours had it that Aregbesola had another preferred candidate in mind, yet he was left with no option than to give support to his party’s candidate in 2018 governorship election.

File photo of Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

A school of thought believe that Oyetola’s choice as Aregbesola’s successor was largely due to the former relationship with Tinubu. It is never in doubt that Oyetola is Tinubu’s cousin. A quiet administrator he has been, Alhaji Adegboyega Oyetola came in as a listening governor. Against this background, he had to reversed some of the policies of Aregbesola’s government.

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One of the things, said to bring about Aregbesola’s recent volte face with Oyetola was the integration of the former deputy governor, Senator Iyiola Omisore and his political associates into government.

Sen. Omisore was also said to have contributed to Oyetola’s emergence as Governor especially during the re-run elections. Thus, on sanctity of promise, Governor Oyetola felt the need to bring Omisore, a former PDP stalwart, who contested the 2018 Osun State  governorship election on the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP) was also a guber aspirant in the election closer and nearer to government. This was said to also angered the Minister and his cohorts.

In 2022, crux of the matter is that Governor Oyetola, like his predecessor, is interested in a second term. Governor Oyetola has already been publicly endorsed for a second term by Osun State Council of Obas and the highly populated civil workforce.

Surprisingly, the Minister of Interior through the auspices of his clique ‘The Osun Progressives’ (TOP) – a replica of the breakaway APC faction in Oyo State tagged ‘The Unity Forum’, are going about with a clear message that Oyetola don’t deserve the second term. To show how far this ‘roforofo’ has gone, Aregbesola has been reportedly supporting another presidential aspirant against his mentor, who has indicated his  interest in becoming Nigeria’s President in 2023.

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Efforts to invite, pacify Aregbesola, both on Tinubu and Oyetola matters are allegedly said to be rebuffed by him.

It is only when a tongue is kept in the mouth that what has been on display in Osun State between the Minister and the state Governor would give the APC seeking continuity a rest of mind – it has been sleepless nights for both factions, even as election draws nearer.

Undermining Aregbesola’s political sagacity in the State is at one’s peril, but what would the Minister gain if he short circuit the progressives from continuing the second term jinx he broke?

One of the aims of this write-up is to acknowledge Aregbesola superb achievements in Osun state during his tenure as governor, and also encourage him to maintain the status of a statesman and not allowed himself to be derailed. It is pertinent to note that since creation of Osun State, no governor can boast of infrastructural development as Aregbesola, given the paltry revenue his regime worked with.

As often alluded, no success without a successor, former Governor Aregbesola should be credited for able to handover to a successor within his cabinet. Charismatically, the Ijesa born politician is in the class of the Cisero of Esa-Oke, late Bola Ige in political oratory, late Lamidi Adedibu and Ebenezer Babatope in political organization and Wike in oil rich Rivers State in envisioning a state’s infrastructural development.

Incontrovertibly, Aregbesola has been, he is and should be a politician of note in his generation. Many examples abound in Yoruba history to show Ogbeni Aregbesola that he needs to be careful and toe the path of good reasoning. Aregbesola, who was once labeled a ‘Tinubu fanatic ally’ should be in the frontline of Tinubu’s  Presidential Project and at the same time, ensure without fail, that Governor Oyetola is re-elected for a second term.

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Was there anyway that either Tinubu or Oyetola or both disturbed Ogbeni Aregbesola during his tenure? Indeed, he enjoyed the support and cooperation of the duo in his 8 years as Governor of Osun State.

Aregbesola, at this critical time of his political career should tread softly, caution his die hard supporters  to tread softly as no one knows the consequences of the current matters. The Oranmiyan should see and beware of banana peels laid for him.

He should beware of ides of March, but rather appreciate God, the benevolent who has had mercies upon him all through his political sojourn.

 

Idowu Ayodele writes from Ibadan, Oyo state, Nigeria.

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Opinion

OYO101: ADELABU— When will this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant stop?| By Muftau Gbadegesin

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The Minister of Power, Oloye Bayo Adelabu, has apologized for lashing out at Nigerians over poor energy management.

I hope Nigerians, especially our people from Oyo state, forgive and overlook his Freudian slip. Given that apology, I believe the minister has realized his mistakes and will subsequently act accordingly. In days that followed the minister’s vituperation, many otherwise cool-headed and easy-going observers quickly joined the band of critics and cynics. By the way, what BAND do you think those critics belonged to?

Plus, how best do you describe kicking someone who is down already? The flurry of condemnation that followed Oloye Adelabu’s ‘AC-Freezer’ sermon must have surprised and shocked him. Instead of sticking to his prepared speech, he decided to dash off by telling Nigerians some home truth. Quite amusingly, the truth, it turns out, is not the truth Nigerians want to hear. And as they say, ‘There is your truth, my truth, and the Truth.’ The fact is that Nigerians are angry at many things, the sudden hike in electricity tariff being one.

Perhaps the Minister’s press conference, an avenue to calm fraying nerves and address critical issues, quickly congealed into an arena for an intellectual dogfight – if you watch the video, you will hear the murmur that rented the air the moment that terse statement was uttered. While some influencers tried to downplay the minister’s jibe, they were instead flogged in their whitewashing game. Frankly, I am not interested in the minister and the energy management brouhaha. What I am indeed interested in is what the ministry and minister are doing to restore light in a country where darkness has permeated much of its landscape – don’t mind the confusion the minister and the ministry have created to disrupt the conversation around that vital sector of the economy.

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‘Up NEPA’, Lol

Trust Nigerians. When the defunct National Electric Power Authority failed to end the perennial and persistent darkness in the country, it was ironically dubbed ‘Never Expect Power Always.’ And when the company morphed into PHCN, Nigerians berated the name change, saying the company would hold more power than it would release. True to that assumption, PHCN indeed held more power than it gave to the people.

Then, in 2013, Nigerians woke up to the news of DISCOs, GENCOS, GASCOs, and so on. DISCOs for distribution companies, GENCOs for generating companies, and Gascos for gas suppliers. Of all these critical value chains, only DISCOs were handed down to private enterprises. Think of IBEDC, AEDC, IEDC, BEDC, etc. Unfortunately, the privatization of the distribution chain hasn’t transformed the sector’s fortune for good. More interested in the money but less motivated to do the dirty work of revamping the infrastructure.

Like a typical Nigerian in a ‘band E’ environment, I grew up chanting the ‘Up NEPA’ mantra whenever power is restored at home – and I am not alone in this mass choir. As a rural boy, the ‘Up NEPA’ chant is etched into our skulls from time immemorial. Sometimes, you can’t even tell when you start to join the chorus; you only know that you say it automatically and auto-magisterially. Many years down the lane, the persistent power cuts, blackouts, and grid collapses have worsened. And under Minister Adelabu, power supply, based on my little experience, has never reached this depressing point in history.

As a content creator, I can tell you Oloye Adelabu may likely go down in history as the most inconsequential minister of power unless something drastic is done to restore people’s confidence and bring about a steady, stable, frequent, and regular power supply. You may have seen on social media how most Nigerians who migrated abroad often find it difficult to shed that ‘Up NEPA’ chant from themselves once a power cut is fixed in those countries. Like the rest of their countrymen, they have internalized that mantra. Only after they’ve acclimatized to their new environment would they become healed of that verbal virus ultimately.

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‘Adelabu, end this chant’

This is a challenge. In my column welcoming Oloye Adelabu into the critical ministry of power, I asked a rhetorical question: Can Adelabu end the penkelemesi in the power sector? In Nigeria, is there any other economic sector troubled by multidimensional and multifaceted peculiar messes than the power sector? Adelabu’s grandfather, Adegoke Adelabu, was nicknamed Penkelemesi. History has it that the colonial masters, tired of that Ibadan politician, decided to describe him in the punchiest way possible: a peculiar mess. Quickly, a peculiar mess spread across like wildfire: the white men have described Adegoke as a peculiar mess. Translated to Yoruba, we have Penkelemesi. In retrospect, the minister must have realized the situation he met on the ground is better than what is obtainable now. He needs to own up, chin up, and take full responsibility for this total blackout.

‘Minister Fashola’

Babatunde Fashola, SAN is a clever man. For four years as minister of power, he avoided cutting controversy. But long before he was appointed, he had stirred quite an expectation around fixing the rot in the sector. He had jokingly said his party, the APC, would resolve the crisis of perennial blackout in one fell swoop. He categorically gave a timeline of when Nigerians in the cities and villages will start to enjoy regular power supply: six months. After four years of setbacks, Minister Fashola was forced to eat his vomit: the power crisis in Nigeria is deep-seated and chaotic. Oloye Adelabu has made more enemies than friends in less than a year. The minister may survey his performance among Nigerians to test this hypothesis. The truth is the truth. The mismatch between the minister’s area of competence and his assigned portfolio hasn’t helped matters as well. And this is a cavity many of his critics and traducers are banking on.

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For the first time in decades, Adelabu stands on the threshold of history: will he end this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant once and for all? Time will tell.

OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state. He can be reached via @muftaugbade on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.

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Yahaya Bello: Do we need to prosecute ex-govs?

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I followed the drama of unimaginable scenes that unfolded in Abuja last week, as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) moved to arrest and arraign the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, in respect of alleged mismanagement of funds. I called it a drama of unimaginable scenes because the EFCC had laid siege to the house since very early in the day, knowing that its target, the “White Lion of Kogi State” was holed up somewhere in the compound.

But before the very eyes of the EFCC operatives, the man they had waited all day to catch, just slipped off their hands effortlessly. They claimed that he was rescued by his cousin, the incumbent governor of the state, Usman Ododo, who is protected by constitutional immunity. But EFCC lawyers would claim that Section 12 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) empowers the body to break into houses to effect arrest.

Maybe that’s a story for another day. But it was surprising they didn’t think of that option. Bello was said to have stayed put in the Government House Lokoja since indication emerged that the EFCC was on his trail. So the easiest thing for the Kogi governor to do was to drive into the troubled house and then fish out a troubled cousin.

The Yahaya Bello saga is just the latest drama between the EFCC and former governors. Some time ago, we witnessed the Ayo Fayose drama. The former Ekiti State governor, whom EFCC was unable to arrest while in office put up some drama when he arrived at EFCC’s office wearing a branded ‘T’ shirt with the inscription: “EFCC I’m here.” Some of his loyalists helped him with things he needed to use in the EFCC detention.

Aside from that, we have also witnessed the Willie Obiano saga. The former governor of Anambra State was accused of misappropriating the state’s funds and has since been taken to court. Immediately after handing over the reins of power in Awka, the man had planned to jet out of the country but had to be stopped as EFCC operatives grabbed him at that exit point. We were also witnesses to the back and forth between the former Governor Abdulaziz Yari of Zamfara State and the EFCC. The commission had accused Yari of mismanaging billions of Naira and moved to arraign him.

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There were accusations and counter-accusations until Yari landed in the Senate, and things became quiet. The drama between the ex-Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, was interesting while it lasted. The commission had laid siege to the residence and eventually entered through the roof. We saw a terrified Okorocha and his household, praying fervently for God’s intervention as operatives jumped in to grab their suspect.

The list I have above is by no means exhaustive of the dramatic exchanges between the EFCC and some former governors accused of one financial misdeed or the other in recent years. One thing is, however, common to all the cases, after the the initial bubbles, the whole thing dies down as the retreating waves. Next to nothing is heard of the cases as the neck-breaking snail-speed of the nation’s judicial system takes over. Year after year, it is about one injunction or the other. Many of the accused had gone ahead to seek elective posts and won, many others have taken appointments and the law cannot stop them from utilising the benefits of the allegedly looted resources to gain an advantage since our laws presume individuals innocent until proven guilty.

The books of the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPCC) are full of such individuals who have allegations of hundreds of billions of Naira hanging on their necks. Many of them are busy swinging the official chairs in government offices as we speak. God forbid, one of such should, gain control of the nation’s presidency one day!

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Well, to forestall such a scary development, I think we need an antidote to these endless anti-corruption trials. The endless trial is not just a drain on the energy of the lady justice. It drills a gaping hole in the state’s resources as well. Imagine the legal charges the state incurs in taking several cases through the layers of courts. It is also possible some of the accused, who are innocent of the accusation could die in the process of trials and thus carry an unnecessary burden of guilt (at least in the eyes of the public) into their graves. The late governor of Oyo State, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala was able to win his case against the EFCC after 13 years, he died not long after the ‘not guilty’ verdict was pronounced. Former President of the Senate, Adolphus Wabara was also on the bribe-for-budget case preferred against him for more than ten years. Luckily, he was alive to receive his ‘not guilty’ verdict as well. Some may not be that lucky.

To stem this tide of seemingly endless trials of politically exposed persons, I want to suggest amendments to the EFCC and ICPC Acts to lay much premium on thorough and discreet probes of financial crimes rather than dump the results of the investigations in the court, the suspects should be called in and shown the traces of the illegally taken funds and their destinations. If the suspect is ready to refund at least two-thirds of the stolen funds to the coffers of the government, the agency involved, under the supervision of a competent court, could sign an irrevocable non-disclosure agreement and collect the funds into a special basket created for that purpose and which will be used for infrastructural development.

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Such an agreement should also take care of any possible penchant for grandstanding by any politician who could mount the podium one day and claim never to have been indicted of financial crimes. As much as the government would not waste time and resources prosecuting him or her, he should also be barred from active politics and playing godfather roles. If we do this, we will not only save time and resources, but we will get back a sizeable amount of the looted funds into government coffers for developmental purposes.

By Taiwo Adisa

This piece was first Published By Sunday Tribune, April 21, 2024.

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Tinubu’s Naira Miracle: Abracadabra or Economic Wizardry? | By Adeniyi Olowofela

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Prior to assuming the presidency of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu garnered the confidence of the majority of Nigerians with the promise of rescuing the country’s economy from the impending disaster it faced.

For the past 43 years, the Naira has been steadily depreciating against the Dollar, as illustrated in Figure One.

The graphs below unequivocally depict the exponential rise of the Naira against the Dollar from 1979 to 2022. This sustained upward trend would have theoretically resulted in the Naira reaching 2,500 Naira to one Dollar by now.

 

 

This situation led some individuals to hoard dollars in anticipation of profiting from further devaluation of the Naira.

However, under President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, the Nigerian federal government successfully halted the expected decline of the Naira.

The Naira has appreciated to 1,200 Naira to a Dollar (Figure 2), contrary to the projected 2,500 Naira to one Dollar, based on the exponential pattern observed in Figure One.

This achievement demonstrates unprecedented economic prowess. If this trajectory continues, the Naira may appreciate to 500 Naira against 1 Dollar before the conclusion of President Bola Tinubu’s first term in 2027.

While the purchasing power of the average Nigerian remains relatively low, there is a palpable sense of hope on the rise.

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It is hoped that the Economic Team advising the President will continue their efforts to stabilize the economy and prevent its collapse until Nigeria achieves economic prosperity.

The government’s ability to reverse the Naira’s free fall within a year can be likened to a remarkable feat, reminiscent of a lizard falling from the top of an Iroko tree unscathed, then nodding its head in self-applause.

Mr. President, we applaud your efforts.

 

Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela, the Commissioner representing Oyo State at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), writes from Abuja.

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