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When the kingmaker wears the crown

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Nigeria's President-Elect, Sen. Bola Tinubu

 

The feeling of success is a special one and this feeling becomes magical when someone achieved his lifetime ambition against all odds in life. For president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu becoming the President of the largest democracy in Africa is a rare case of a lifetime ambition.

In the 2003 election as a dogged politician, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu refused to support the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) an alliance with then President  Obasanjo PDP,  for re-election in return for the AD holding on to its six South-West states. The AD governor’s actions cost them their gubernatorial seats. Tinubu’s refusal to be part of the deal turned out to be his saving grace as he remained a  lone re-elected Governor of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) due to the incursion of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into the South West.

As the lone AD governor Tinubu was in a regular collision with the PDP-controlled Federal Government, especially on his creation of additional 37 Local Council Development Areas for Lagos States. Despite Obasanjo’s administration’s deliberate withholding of statutory allocation of the Lagos State Local Government funds for almost three years Lagos state survived until the Supreme Court ruled that Obasanjo’s administration should release the seized statutory allocation of the Lagos State Local Government funds.

As recourse to the decimated Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the southwest Jagaban was actively involved in the creation of the Action Congress (AC) political party and was able to win back four of the states to AC control. Despite leaving office in 2007, Ahmad Bola Tinubu did not give up the struggle for forming a formidable opposition party in the country, especially during the 2011 general elections. After the parliamentary elections in 2011 showed that the People’s Democratic Party would retain the presidency, members of the two parties met to discuss the prospect of forging an alliance that would have a realistic chance of defeating the PDP’s candidate, Goodluck Jonathan.

I’m the same year,  the president-elect looked for alliance talks between the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which failed as the alliance talks failure has been blamed on Tunde Bakare, the CPC’s candidate for Vice-President for refusal to sign a predated resignation letter irked the leaders of the ACN who decided to opt out of a planned “grand coalition” and go it alone.

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After the collapse of the 2007 alliance unrelentingly with his immense political influence led to the merger of opposition parties in 2013 three major parties the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) have floated a mega platform All Progressive Congress (APC).  This grand merger led to the wrestling of power from the then-ruling PDP in 2015 – a rarity in Nigeria where incumbents are not often defeated.

Without the self-sacrifice and leadership of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, there would not be the All Progressive Congress at the centre in 2015 and 2019. He abandoned his desire to seek the country’s top job and instead choose to support and contributed significantly toward the emergence of then  General Muhammadu Buhari as APC Presidential candidate.

Toward the ruling governing party’s presidential primary election, President Buhari’s associates have tried to downplay the former governor’s influence in the 2015 election,  aspirations were flagging, and he reminded Nigerians that he was largely responsible for installing President Muhammadu Buhari.

Even though there is seemed to gang up against him before the APC  convention, the president-elect stood his ground, poured out his mind, and fought to win the presidential ticket. On Picking a  running-mate Tinubu, picked former Borno state governor Kashim Shettima. The action also generated a lot of controversies. This decision drew the ire of many Christians who say it went against the tradition of mixed-faith tickets for the presidency. Going by his antecedents and political sagacity, Tinubu is not just the Jagaban of Borgu, but the Jagaban of contemporary Nigerian democracy and politics and he is an “outstanding politician who has contributed immensely to Nigeria’s democracy.

The incoming President won the election at a critical stage in our nation’s history. As  Buhari administration poorly implemented economic policies have borough bout unbearable hardship to millions of families, difficulty to businesses, a huge debt profile, widespread insecurity, unemployment, and inflation.

The job of the president-elect ran the easy job, due to daunting challenges. on nation’s debt burden at the last count, Nigeria is neck-deep in debts hovering around N44.06 trillion in September 2022. However, if the N23.7 trillion CBN loan is securitized, our debt stock could amount to about N77 trillion in June 2023 just some days after the swearing of President-Elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

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The incoming administration needs to put all necessary policies to bar federal and states government from borrowing and in the case where the borrowing needs borrowing will be used to fund projects that generate revenue from which debt can be repaid. Another area of great concern budget underscores fiscal deficit expansion and the upward trajectory in public debt. Fiscal sustainability will remain a concern as government revenue will be eroded by personnel costs and high-interest payments on debt.

The incoming administration is to take over on the heels of unemployment which has been projected the country’s unemployment rate will hit 37 per cent in 2023. Nigeria’s inflation rate reached its unprecedented in January 2023, hitting a record high of 21.82%. This represents a 0.47% increase when compared to the 21.34% recorded in the previous month, Nigerians are languishing in extreme hardship; daily survival has become an uphill challenge and what people are going through now in the country is reaching the highest apogee since the late 80s.

All these happened under the All Progressive Congress corrective administration.  Because those in power do not feel for Nigerians in this kind of abject unfold hardship. Why in the 21st Century  Nigerians are still talking about daily survival in normal circumstances there is no reason for Nigerians talks or cry about food prices beyond their affordability. In October,  a report by Global Hunger Index was jointly published by the German-based Welthungerhilfe and Dublin-based Concern Worldwide. Nigeria ranked 103 out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index, a position that signifies the nation “has a level of hunger-stricken country which is serious. inflation reached unprecedented heights; workers purchasing power declined precipitously.

Nigerians expect the new president-elect to have a team of competent people by ensuring that round pegs are put in round holes and that he should immediately roll out his economic blueprint, which should be in line with the National Development Plan. Urgent needs to tackle issues surrounding the fiscal and monetary policies to quickly arrest the dwindling economy of the country.

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Another urgent matter for the incoming government should give accelerated attention to is the currency redesign policy notes because it has disrupted both consumption and production, particularly in the informal sector, the disruption has to be addressed quickly to halt the economic decline and hardship on the nation. This economic situation, in itself, requires not just tinkering but massive reengineering.

President-elect Ahmad Bola Tinubu should critically review agricultural policies because the current policy has not achieved much success that can boost the economy and reduce poverty in the land. Let you and your team remain focused on the objective of birthing the Nigeria of our dreams. Nigerians pray that Almighty God will help you to fulfill the progressive mandate mandated to you by the  Nigerians, as well as you and your Vice President-elect’s plans to improve security.

Finally, May Allah,  guide you to what is good for the country and good for us.  make them a means for our safety, and make them a means for our wellbeing. Safeguard our country and bring ease to the Nigerians from that which they face from suffering.

 

Abba Dukawa, a Public Affairs commentator, wrote in from Kano State.

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Opinion

OYO101: ADELABU— When will this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant stop?| By Muftau Gbadegesin

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The Minister of Power, Oloye Bayo Adelabu, has apologized for lashing out at Nigerians over poor energy management.

I hope Nigerians, especially our people from Oyo state, forgive and overlook his Freudian slip. Given that apology, I believe the minister has realized his mistakes and will subsequently act accordingly. In days that followed the minister’s vituperation, many otherwise cool-headed and easy-going observers quickly joined the band of critics and cynics. By the way, what BAND do you think those critics belonged to?

Plus, how best do you describe kicking someone who is down already? The flurry of condemnation that followed Oloye Adelabu’s ‘AC-Freezer’ sermon must have surprised and shocked him. Instead of sticking to his prepared speech, he decided to dash off by telling Nigerians some home truth. Quite amusingly, the truth, it turns out, is not the truth Nigerians want to hear. And as they say, ‘There is your truth, my truth, and the Truth.’ The fact is that Nigerians are angry at many things, the sudden hike in electricity tariff being one.

Perhaps the Minister’s press conference, an avenue to calm fraying nerves and address critical issues, quickly congealed into an arena for an intellectual dogfight – if you watch the video, you will hear the murmur that rented the air the moment that terse statement was uttered. While some influencers tried to downplay the minister’s jibe, they were instead flogged in their whitewashing game. Frankly, I am not interested in the minister and the energy management brouhaha. What I am indeed interested in is what the ministry and minister are doing to restore light in a country where darkness has permeated much of its landscape – don’t mind the confusion the minister and the ministry have created to disrupt the conversation around that vital sector of the economy.

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‘Up NEPA’, Lol

Trust Nigerians. When the defunct National Electric Power Authority failed to end the perennial and persistent darkness in the country, it was ironically dubbed ‘Never Expect Power Always.’ And when the company morphed into PHCN, Nigerians berated the name change, saying the company would hold more power than it would release. True to that assumption, PHCN indeed held more power than it gave to the people.

Then, in 2013, Nigerians woke up to the news of DISCOs, GENCOS, GASCOs, and so on. DISCOs for distribution companies, GENCOs for generating companies, and Gascos for gas suppliers. Of all these critical value chains, only DISCOs were handed down to private enterprises. Think of IBEDC, AEDC, IEDC, BEDC, etc. Unfortunately, the privatization of the distribution chain hasn’t transformed the sector’s fortune for good. More interested in the money but less motivated to do the dirty work of revamping the infrastructure.

Like a typical Nigerian in a ‘band E’ environment, I grew up chanting the ‘Up NEPA’ mantra whenever power is restored at home – and I am not alone in this mass choir. As a rural boy, the ‘Up NEPA’ chant is etched into our skulls from time immemorial. Sometimes, you can’t even tell when you start to join the chorus; you only know that you say it automatically and auto-magisterially. Many years down the lane, the persistent power cuts, blackouts, and grid collapses have worsened. And under Minister Adelabu, power supply, based on my little experience, has never reached this depressing point in history.

As a content creator, I can tell you Oloye Adelabu may likely go down in history as the most inconsequential minister of power unless something drastic is done to restore people’s confidence and bring about a steady, stable, frequent, and regular power supply. You may have seen on social media how most Nigerians who migrated abroad often find it difficult to shed that ‘Up NEPA’ chant from themselves once a power cut is fixed in those countries. Like the rest of their countrymen, they have internalized that mantra. Only after they’ve acclimatized to their new environment would they become healed of that verbal virus ultimately.

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‘Adelabu, end this chant’

This is a challenge. In my column welcoming Oloye Adelabu into the critical ministry of power, I asked a rhetorical question: Can Adelabu end the penkelemesi in the power sector? In Nigeria, is there any other economic sector troubled by multidimensional and multifaceted peculiar messes than the power sector? Adelabu’s grandfather, Adegoke Adelabu, was nicknamed Penkelemesi. History has it that the colonial masters, tired of that Ibadan politician, decided to describe him in the punchiest way possible: a peculiar mess. Quickly, a peculiar mess spread across like wildfire: the white men have described Adegoke as a peculiar mess. Translated to Yoruba, we have Penkelemesi. In retrospect, the minister must have realized the situation he met on the ground is better than what is obtainable now. He needs to own up, chin up, and take full responsibility for this total blackout.

‘Minister Fashola’

Babatunde Fashola, SAN is a clever man. For four years as minister of power, he avoided cutting controversy. But long before he was appointed, he had stirred quite an expectation around fixing the rot in the sector. He had jokingly said his party, the APC, would resolve the crisis of perennial blackout in one fell swoop. He categorically gave a timeline of when Nigerians in the cities and villages will start to enjoy regular power supply: six months. After four years of setbacks, Minister Fashola was forced to eat his vomit: the power crisis in Nigeria is deep-seated and chaotic. Oloye Adelabu has made more enemies than friends in less than a year. The minister may survey his performance among Nigerians to test this hypothesis. The truth is the truth. The mismatch between the minister’s area of competence and his assigned portfolio hasn’t helped matters as well. And this is a cavity many of his critics and traducers are banking on.

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For the first time in decades, Adelabu stands on the threshold of history: will he end this generational ‘UP NEPA’ chant once and for all? Time will tell.

OYO101 is Muftau Gbadegesin’s opinion about issues affecting the Oyo state. He can be reached via @muftaugbade on X, muftaugbadegesin@gmail.com, and 09065176850.

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Yahaya Bello: Do we need to prosecute ex-govs?

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I followed the drama of unimaginable scenes that unfolded in Abuja last week, as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission(EFCC) moved to arrest and arraign the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, in respect of alleged mismanagement of funds. I called it a drama of unimaginable scenes because the EFCC had laid siege to the house since very early in the day, knowing that its target, the “White Lion of Kogi State” was holed up somewhere in the compound.

But before the very eyes of the EFCC operatives, the man they had waited all day to catch, just slipped off their hands effortlessly. They claimed that he was rescued by his cousin, the incumbent governor of the state, Usman Ododo, who is protected by constitutional immunity. But EFCC lawyers would claim that Section 12 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) empowers the body to break into houses to effect arrest.

Maybe that’s a story for another day. But it was surprising they didn’t think of that option. Bello was said to have stayed put in the Government House Lokoja since indication emerged that the EFCC was on his trail. So the easiest thing for the Kogi governor to do was to drive into the troubled house and then fish out a troubled cousin.

The Yahaya Bello saga is just the latest drama between the EFCC and former governors. Some time ago, we witnessed the Ayo Fayose drama. The former Ekiti State governor, whom EFCC was unable to arrest while in office put up some drama when he arrived at EFCC’s office wearing a branded ‘T’ shirt with the inscription: “EFCC I’m here.” Some of his loyalists helped him with things he needed to use in the EFCC detention.

Aside from that, we have also witnessed the Willie Obiano saga. The former governor of Anambra State was accused of misappropriating the state’s funds and has since been taken to court. Immediately after handing over the reins of power in Awka, the man had planned to jet out of the country but had to be stopped as EFCC operatives grabbed him at that exit point. We were also witnesses to the back and forth between the former Governor Abdulaziz Yari of Zamfara State and the EFCC. The commission had accused Yari of mismanaging billions of Naira and moved to arraign him.

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There were accusations and counter-accusations until Yari landed in the Senate, and things became quiet. The drama between the ex-Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha, was interesting while it lasted. The commission had laid siege to the residence and eventually entered through the roof. We saw a terrified Okorocha and his household, praying fervently for God’s intervention as operatives jumped in to grab their suspect.

The list I have above is by no means exhaustive of the dramatic exchanges between the EFCC and some former governors accused of one financial misdeed or the other in recent years. One thing is, however, common to all the cases, after the the initial bubbles, the whole thing dies down as the retreating waves. Next to nothing is heard of the cases as the neck-breaking snail-speed of the nation’s judicial system takes over. Year after year, it is about one injunction or the other. Many of the accused had gone ahead to seek elective posts and won, many others have taken appointments and the law cannot stop them from utilising the benefits of the allegedly looted resources to gain an advantage since our laws presume individuals innocent until proven guilty.

The books of the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPCC) are full of such individuals who have allegations of hundreds of billions of Naira hanging on their necks. Many of them are busy swinging the official chairs in government offices as we speak. God forbid, one of such should, gain control of the nation’s presidency one day!

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Well, to forestall such a scary development, I think we need an antidote to these endless anti-corruption trials. The endless trial is not just a drain on the energy of the lady justice. It drills a gaping hole in the state’s resources as well. Imagine the legal charges the state incurs in taking several cases through the layers of courts. It is also possible some of the accused, who are innocent of the accusation could die in the process of trials and thus carry an unnecessary burden of guilt (at least in the eyes of the public) into their graves. The late governor of Oyo State, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala was able to win his case against the EFCC after 13 years, he died not long after the ‘not guilty’ verdict was pronounced. Former President of the Senate, Adolphus Wabara was also on the bribe-for-budget case preferred against him for more than ten years. Luckily, he was alive to receive his ‘not guilty’ verdict as well. Some may not be that lucky.

To stem this tide of seemingly endless trials of politically exposed persons, I want to suggest amendments to the EFCC and ICPC Acts to lay much premium on thorough and discreet probes of financial crimes rather than dump the results of the investigations in the court, the suspects should be called in and shown the traces of the illegally taken funds and their destinations. If the suspect is ready to refund at least two-thirds of the stolen funds to the coffers of the government, the agency involved, under the supervision of a competent court, could sign an irrevocable non-disclosure agreement and collect the funds into a special basket created for that purpose and which will be used for infrastructural development.

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Such an agreement should also take care of any possible penchant for grandstanding by any politician who could mount the podium one day and claim never to have been indicted of financial crimes. As much as the government would not waste time and resources prosecuting him or her, he should also be barred from active politics and playing godfather roles. If we do this, we will not only save time and resources, but we will get back a sizeable amount of the looted funds into government coffers for developmental purposes.

By Taiwo Adisa

This piece was first Published By Sunday Tribune, April 21, 2024.

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Tinubu’s Naira Miracle: Abracadabra or Economic Wizardry? | By Adeniyi Olowofela

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Prior to assuming the presidency of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu garnered the confidence of the majority of Nigerians with the promise of rescuing the country’s economy from the impending disaster it faced.

For the past 43 years, the Naira has been steadily depreciating against the Dollar, as illustrated in Figure One.

The graphs below unequivocally depict the exponential rise of the Naira against the Dollar from 1979 to 2022. This sustained upward trend would have theoretically resulted in the Naira reaching 2,500 Naira to one Dollar by now.

 

 

This situation led some individuals to hoard dollars in anticipation of profiting from further devaluation of the Naira.

However, under President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, the Nigerian federal government successfully halted the expected decline of the Naira.

The Naira has appreciated to 1,200 Naira to a Dollar (Figure 2), contrary to the projected 2,500 Naira to one Dollar, based on the exponential pattern observed in Figure One.

This achievement demonstrates unprecedented economic prowess. If this trajectory continues, the Naira may appreciate to 500 Naira against 1 Dollar before the conclusion of President Bola Tinubu’s first term in 2027.

While the purchasing power of the average Nigerian remains relatively low, there is a palpable sense of hope on the rise.

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It is hoped that the Economic Team advising the President will continue their efforts to stabilize the economy and prevent its collapse until Nigeria achieves economic prosperity.

The government’s ability to reverse the Naira’s free fall within a year can be likened to a remarkable feat, reminiscent of a lizard falling from the top of an Iroko tree unscathed, then nodding its head in self-applause.

Mr. President, we applaud your efforts.

 

Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela, the Commissioner representing Oyo State at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), writes from Abuja.

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