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Nigeria: Despite fall in inflation, food prices rise in May – Report

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The  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month in May, but the prices of food have continued to surge.

NBS’s latest  data published on Tuesday revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, increased by 17.93 per cent (year-on-year) in the fifth month of the year 2021.

While, according to the data, this is 0.19 per cent points lower than the 18.12 per cent recorded in April, increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the headline index.

On a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 1.01 per cent in May, representing higher percentage points of 0.04 than the rate recorded in the previous month (0.97 per cent).

The report read, “The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12 months period ending May 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12 months period was 15.50 per cent, showing a 0.46 percent point rise from 15.04 per cent recorded in April 2021”.

Also, the urban inflation rate rose to 18.51 percent (year-on-year) in May from 18.68 per cent recorded in April, just as the rural inflation rate stood at 17.36 per cent in May from the 17.57 per cent previously reported.

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The urban index rose to 1.04 per cent in May – up by 0.05 per cent points (on a month-on-month basis) – compared to the rate recorded in April (0.99 per cent), while the rural index rose to 0.98 per cent in May – up by 0.03 points – compared to the 0.95 per cent recorded in April.

The report further added that the corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.09 per cent in May – higher than the 15.63 per cent reported in April while the corresponding rural inflation rate in May is 14.94 per cent compared to the 14.48 per cent recorded in the previous month.

 

The composite food index, however rose by 22.28 per cent in May as against the 22.72 per cent reported in April.

This rise in the food index, according to the NBS, was as a result of increases in prices of bread, cereals, milk, cheese, eggs, fish, soft drinks, coffee, tea and cocoa, fruits, meat, oils and fats, and vegetables.

It disclosed that the food sub-index increased by 1.05 per cent in May from the 0.99 per cent recorded in April, on a month-on-month basis.

“The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the 12-month period ending May 2021 over the previous 12-month average was 19.18 per cent, 0.60 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in April (18.58) per cent,” the report said.

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The core inflation, also known as ‘all items less farm produce’, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, stood at 13.15 per cent in May as against the 12.74 per cent recorded in April.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.24 per cent in May 2021, up by 0.25 per cent when compared with the 0.99 per cent recorded in the previous month.

NBS noted that the highest increases were recorded in prices of pharmaceutical products, garments, shoes and other footwear, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, furniture and furnishing, as well as carpet and other floor coverings.

Others are motor cars, hospital services, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, other services in respect of personal transport equipment, gas, household textile and nondurable household goods.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 11.50 per cent for the 12-month period ending in May – representing 0.25 per cent points compared with the 11.25 per cent recorded in April.

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National Issues

16 Governors Back State Police Amid Security Concerns

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In response to the escalating security challenges plaguing Nigeria, no fewer than 16 state governors have thrown their weight behind the establishment of state police forces.

This development was disclosed by the National Economic Council (NEC) during its 140th meeting, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, which took place virtually on Thursday.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, who briefed State House Correspondents after the meeting, revealed that out of the 36 states, 20 governors and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were yet to submit their positions on the matter, though he did not specify which states were among them.

The governors advocating for state police also pushed for a comprehensive review of the Nigerian Constitution to accommodate this crucial reform. Their move underscores the urgency and gravity of the security situation across the nation.

Similarly, the NEC received an abridged report from the ad-hoc committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control. This committee, headed by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, highlighted the areas of oil leakages within the industry and identified instances of infractions.

Governor Uzodinma’s committee stressed the imperative of political will to drive the necessary changes and reforms needed to combat crude oil theft effectively.

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National Issues

Weak Institutions Impede Nigeria’s Sustainable Development – Says US Don

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Renowned academician, Professor Augustine Okereke, from the Medgar Evers College/City University of New York, has emphasised the detrimental impact of a lack of strong social institutions on Nigeria’s sustainable development.

Presenting a lead paper at the First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference hosted by the University of Ibadan, Professor Okereke urged President Bola Tinubu to foster robust institutions capable of combatting corruption and addressing social ills.

“All our institutions are on the decline,” warned Professor Okereke, underscoring the urgent need for effective structures to facilitate sustainable development. He highlighted the challenges faced by African countries, emphasising the risk of continued poverty, underemployment, and injustice without these foundational structures.

The Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Ibadan, Professor Ezebunwa Nwokocha, asserted the university’s commitment to providing intellectual, context-specific solutions to Nigeria’s challenges.

He called on state and federal governments to patronise researchers in the country, emphasising the faculty’s reputation for producing intellectual leaders.

Professor Nwokocha stated, “Our faculty is reputed for offering deeply intellectual, workable, and context-specific solutions to the challenges faced by Nigeria over the ages.” He emphasised the significance of the conference’s theme in aiding Nigeria’s navigation through its complex existential reality marked by despair, rising inflation, insecurity, corruption, and unemployment.

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During the conference’s opening, Vice Chancellor Professor Kayode Adebowale noted the relevance of the theme, “Social Science, Contemporary Social Issues, and the Actualization of Sustainable Development,” urging participants to generate transformative ideas for Nigeria.

Acknowledging the nation’s progress over 63 years, he expressed concern over setbacks in the economy and social indices, hoping the conference would proffer solutions.

In his keynote address, Professor Lai Erinosho stressed the rapid worldwide social change in the digital age, citing both benefits and unanticipated consequences for human survival. He cautioned against embracing same-sex relationships, citing dangerous implications for humanity.

The First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference convened a diverse array of participants to explore solutions and intellectual leadership in addressing Nigeria’s pressing challenges.

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National Issues

Nigerians’ Wallets Under Strain As Inflation Soars to 28.92%

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As the country grapples with economic challenges, the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a surge in the inflation rate to 28.92%, according to the December 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on a Monday afternoon.

The CPI, tracking the fluctuation in prices of goods and services, illustrates a notable increase from the previous month’s 28.20%, underscoring the pressing concerns surrounding the nation’s economic stability.

In a recent report, the Statistics Office revealed a notable uptick in the headline inflation rate for December 2023, marking a 0.72 percentage point increase from the previous month’s figure in November 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted a significant surge, with the December 2023 rate standing at 7.58 percentage points higher compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

December 2022 witnessed an inflation rate of 21.34 percent, underscoring the economic dynamics at play.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022),” NBS said.

In a further revelation, the bureau disclosed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate for December 2023 experienced a 2.29 percent surge, surpassing November 2023 by 0.20 percent. This indicates a swifter rise in the average price level compared to the preceding month.

The report highlighted a concerning acceleration in food inflation, reaching 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis for December 2023. This marked a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from December 2022’s rate of 23.75 percent. The data underscores the persistent upward trend in food prices, a trend exacerbated by various government policies, including the removal of subsidies on petrol.

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Notably, in July 2023, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity to address the escalating food prices. Taking decisive action, the President mandated that issues related to food and water availability and affordability fall under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council, recognising these as essential livelihood items in need of urgent attention.

In Monday’s inflation report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) detailed the key contributors to the year-on-year increase in the headline index. The leading factors include food & non-alcoholic beverages at 14.98 percent, housing water, electricity, gas & other fuel at 4.84 percent, clothing & footwear at 2.21 percent, and transport at 1.88 percent.

Additional contributors encompass furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.45 percent), education (1.14 percent), health (0.87 percent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.48 percent), restaurant & hotels (0.35 percent), alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (0.31 percent), recreation & culture (0.20 percent), and communication (0.20 percent).

The report highlighted a substantial 24.66 percent change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month period. This represents a significant 5.81 percent increase compared to the 18.85 percent recorded in December 2022, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

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Food Inflation

In a concerning trend, the food inflation rate for December 2023 surged to 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from the same period in 2022, when the rate stood at 23.75 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this rise in food inflation to notable increases in the prices of various essential items. Key contributors include bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, fish, meat, fruit, milk, cheese, and eggs.

These price hikes collectively contributed to the intensified strain on consumers, highlighting the complex dynamics driving the upward trajectory of food prices.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.72 percent, this was 0.30 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.42 percent),” it said.

Clarifying the dynamics behind the recent uptick, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) explained that the month-on-month increase in food inflation for December 2023 was spurred by a heightened rate of escalation in the average prices of oil and fat, meat, bread, and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, as well as fish and dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.96 percent, which was a 7.02 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2022 (20.94 percent),” the report added.

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