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Has fuel, gas price come down to N87? FCT civil servants reject NBS report on recession

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For days, Gbenga Odunsi, a journalist, toured five of the federal ministries in Abuja, spending time with civil servants over the NBS report that Nigeria is officially out of recession. His findings show that majority of the civil servants do not believe the report. Nigerians wants to feel the NBS statistics in their stomach before they believe. Those who believed it explained that it will take time before Nigerians can feel it, Gbenga writes.

The news of Nigeria’s exit from recession did not only come as a shock but also generated much controversy. While many are of the opinion that the recession is still hitting hard in the economy, others say it’s a past story.

Official results from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had shown that the economy grew at 0.55 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2017, effectively removing Nigeria out of recession.

The statistics office attributes the economic recovery to the performance of four main economic activities comprising oil, agriculture, manufacturing and trade.

The Nigerian economy slipped into recession in early 2016.

This news had struck many Nigerians leaving them in doubt of the NBS report. In separate interviews, the journalist spoke with some civil servants in the nation’s city capital and got divergent views.

Reactions

When asked if he was happy that the country had journeyed out of recession, Tunde Bankole, a staff of ministry of information simply smiled and stood up from his black leather office chair, looked out through the window, and sat back on his chair.

With a sad face, Tunde queried that if Nigerians who lost their jobs during the recession period get their jobs back, and the high prices of commodities drop down to the pre-recession prices, then Nigeria is truly out of recession, but is the reverse is the case, then the NBS statistics is a hoax.

“Does this translate to all or a greater percentage of people who lost their jobs gaining it back? Does this translate to prices of commodities in the market dropping drastically?

“Does this translate to improved standard of living for the Nigerian populace? Does this translate to businesses bouncing back?

“If no, then those things are mere figures that are not in tandem with reality”.

When Ijebu garri is the yardstick for measuring recession

In his opinion, Jide Akintunde, an administrative officer at the ministry of education, lamented that the exit from recession has not shown in the prices of foodstuffs.

“So, leaving recession was just in the paper, we haven’t seen it in real life.

“Let the prices of Ijebu garri and bag of rice come down so we can really say recession is over”, he added.

Time factor

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However, Ndubisi Julien, a public affairs analyst at ministry of finance felt excited to respond to the journalist.  “This is the type of question I like to answer” she said.

She commended the Buhari-led administration for leading the country out of the worst economic recession, adding that Nigerians may not necessarily feel the impact of the exit immediately.

Ndubisi lamented that Nigerians are ignorant of the way recession and its exit works, adding that people use the word without in-depth knowledge of its operations.

“It is obvious Nigerians don’t know what recession is all about, they have only been using the term because they heard it on TV/radio.

“Most of them think exiting recession mean a drop-in price of garri.

“Once the economic variables stabilize, it will start reflecting in the lives of the people, although it may take time but we are getting there”, she concluded.

Ndubisi however urged Nigerians to exercise patience till October before they start feeling the new waves of the post-recession period.

Revving the engine of his Toyota Camry at the ministry’s parking lot, obviously on his way out, Gerald Lawrence, an account at the ministry of health commended the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo for his efforts in stabilizing the economy of the country while President Buhari was away on his medical trip to London.

Lawrence further explained that it will take some time for the development to reflect on the lives of Nigerians, adding that prices hardly drops down when it goes up in Nigeria.

“Good development, truth be told, Osinbajo contributed a lot to improving the economy, but it is still Buhari’s administration that gave Osinbajo – a technocrat- the opportunity to so.

“It will however take some time for the development to reflect in the life of the average Nigerian especially considering the fact that anything that goes up in Nigeria never comes down”.

Some have accepted fate

boredom is killing me, ye eh eh
boredom is killing me, ye eh eh
pour me holy water make i find my square root
emi o s’ere
ko s’ina, ko s’omi
economy yi ti fe so mi di were…

sugbon, emi o ni je k’economy kill mi oh
ma jo, ma yo
economy no go give me heart attack oh
ma jo, ma yo
economy no go give me high blood pressure oh
ma jo, ma yo…Economy song by 9ice

This was the song Prince Olalekan Ibrahim, communications officer at the ministry of transportation, was playing on his android phone when the journalist approached him.

Dressed in a white native wear, guinea material to be specific, Olalekan paid much attention to his laptop, while singing the 9ice ‘Economy’ song at the same time.

When asked of his opinion on the NBS report that Nigeria is out of recession, Olalekan asked the journalist to give him few minutes to round off his work – it was almost closing hour.

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Responding to the question, Olalekan explained he does not worry himself with issues bothering around Nigeria and its economic state. He noted that the APC-led administration is not concerned whether an average Nigerian feeds well or not.

The 9ice fan further noted that he has decided to make himself happy no matter what happens in Nigeria as it is obvious the government doesn’t care about its citizens.

He lamented on the report by NBS describing it as politically motivated scheme to make Nigerian believe the Buhari administration is working.

“Now answer me, what are the physical indices that shows we are out of recession? Prices of essential commodities rose to the ceiling level and that was the beginning of recession in Nigeria

“Now they are telling us that recession is over- the question is, has those prices come down?

“Has fuel/gas price come down to N87?

“Has people who lost their jobs been reinstated?”

“Has the foreign exchange returned to where Buhari and his government met it in 2015? Olalekan queried.

“Until all these are reversed, you can come out to say Nigeria is out of recession. If you dare me, then go to Wuse market and say this and see if you will not be beaten to pulp”, Olalekan added.

Sometimes, you just don’t know the source of some people’s anger

“Why did they make Lai Mohammed the government spokesperson”

This was the answer that welcomed the journalist’s question when he asked Paul Iredia, a staff at the ministry of industry, trade and investment his position on the NBS report.

Iredia, a middle-aged man with grey hairs on his head fumed and responded with anger over APC-led administration and their economic policies. It took the grace of God for the young journalist to escape
“slaps” from the obviously anti-Buhari civil servant.

“This same government told us Boko haram has been defeated but we still hear of boko haram attacks in the Northeast

“How many people ate meat this morning?

“Where did they get the statistics from, market or office?

Iredia lamented over how Buhari-led government plunged the country into recession. He explained that at the 4th quarter of 2015, the economy was flourishing fine but by the 1st quarter of 2016, the economy was languishing.

Knowing fully well that the journalist wasn’t comfortable with his outburst, Iredia calmed down a bit and concluded by saying “we need to see the effect of the statistics on our tables before we can rightly say we have exited the recession”.

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When a Muslim quotes verses from the Bible

Umar Mohammed, an administrator at the ministry of environment was quick to liken Nigerians with the Israelites, explaining that when Moses was leading the Israelites of out Egypt to the promise land, they were faced with numerous difficulties on their way.

While in Egypt, they were convinced God really sent Moses to deliver them from the wicked hands of king Pharaoh. Following the difficulties they encountered, they the Israelites demanded that Moses return them back to Egypt – This is how Nigerians are behaving, Umar said.

“When NBS declared that Nigeria has entered recession with facts and data to back it up, everyone accepted, even the government in power accepted the fact. Nigerians did not call it a campaign. The government accepted the fact and accepted responsibility and promised to improve the economy.

“Now the same NBS that declared recession has said we are out of it with data to back up their facts but some elements have decided to play politics with it and are now saying it is a lie and that it was politically motivated.

“Everyone is now talking as if manna were falling down from heaven prior to the recession period.

“Atiku is saying food must be on the table of every Nigeria for us to believe we are truly out of recession as if during the pre-recession period, everyone was eating 3-square meal.

“Every Nigerian is now acting like we had constant electricity, good road, potable water, good and consistent health care, good education system, until recession came and scattered everything.

“Funny enough, when NBS declared recession, nobody demanded for all these explanations, we all accepted the fact, now Nigerians are demanding explanation of how the country exited recession”, he concluded.

 

 

 

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National Issues

16 Governors Back State Police Amid Security Concerns

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In response to the escalating security challenges plaguing Nigeria, no fewer than 16 state governors have thrown their weight behind the establishment of state police forces.

This development was disclosed by the National Economic Council (NEC) during its 140th meeting, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, which took place virtually on Thursday.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, who briefed State House Correspondents after the meeting, revealed that out of the 36 states, 20 governors and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were yet to submit their positions on the matter, though he did not specify which states were among them.

The governors advocating for state police also pushed for a comprehensive review of the Nigerian Constitution to accommodate this crucial reform. Their move underscores the urgency and gravity of the security situation across the nation.

Similarly, the NEC received an abridged report from the ad-hoc committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control. This committee, headed by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, highlighted the areas of oil leakages within the industry and identified instances of infractions.

Governor Uzodinma’s committee stressed the imperative of political will to drive the necessary changes and reforms needed to combat crude oil theft effectively.

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National Issues

Weak Institutions Impede Nigeria’s Sustainable Development – Says US Don

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Renowned academician, Professor Augustine Okereke, from the Medgar Evers College/City University of New York, has emphasised the detrimental impact of a lack of strong social institutions on Nigeria’s sustainable development.

Presenting a lead paper at the First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference hosted by the University of Ibadan, Professor Okereke urged President Bola Tinubu to foster robust institutions capable of combatting corruption and addressing social ills.

“All our institutions are on the decline,” warned Professor Okereke, underscoring the urgent need for effective structures to facilitate sustainable development. He highlighted the challenges faced by African countries, emphasising the risk of continued poverty, underemployment, and injustice without these foundational structures.

The Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Ibadan, Professor Ezebunwa Nwokocha, asserted the university’s commitment to providing intellectual, context-specific solutions to Nigeria’s challenges.

He called on state and federal governments to patronise researchers in the country, emphasising the faculty’s reputation for producing intellectual leaders.

Professor Nwokocha stated, “Our faculty is reputed for offering deeply intellectual, workable, and context-specific solutions to the challenges faced by Nigeria over the ages.” He emphasised the significance of the conference’s theme in aiding Nigeria’s navigation through its complex existential reality marked by despair, rising inflation, insecurity, corruption, and unemployment.

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During the conference’s opening, Vice Chancellor Professor Kayode Adebowale noted the relevance of the theme, “Social Science, Contemporary Social Issues, and the Actualization of Sustainable Development,” urging participants to generate transformative ideas for Nigeria.

Acknowledging the nation’s progress over 63 years, he expressed concern over setbacks in the economy and social indices, hoping the conference would proffer solutions.

In his keynote address, Professor Lai Erinosho stressed the rapid worldwide social change in the digital age, citing both benefits and unanticipated consequences for human survival. He cautioned against embracing same-sex relationships, citing dangerous implications for humanity.

The First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference convened a diverse array of participants to explore solutions and intellectual leadership in addressing Nigeria’s pressing challenges.

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National Issues

Nigerians’ Wallets Under Strain As Inflation Soars to 28.92%

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As the country grapples with economic challenges, the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a surge in the inflation rate to 28.92%, according to the December 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on a Monday afternoon.

The CPI, tracking the fluctuation in prices of goods and services, illustrates a notable increase from the previous month’s 28.20%, underscoring the pressing concerns surrounding the nation’s economic stability.

In a recent report, the Statistics Office revealed a notable uptick in the headline inflation rate for December 2023, marking a 0.72 percentage point increase from the previous month’s figure in November 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted a significant surge, with the December 2023 rate standing at 7.58 percentage points higher compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

December 2022 witnessed an inflation rate of 21.34 percent, underscoring the economic dynamics at play.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022),” NBS said.

In a further revelation, the bureau disclosed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate for December 2023 experienced a 2.29 percent surge, surpassing November 2023 by 0.20 percent. This indicates a swifter rise in the average price level compared to the preceding month.

The report highlighted a concerning acceleration in food inflation, reaching 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis for December 2023. This marked a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from December 2022’s rate of 23.75 percent. The data underscores the persistent upward trend in food prices, a trend exacerbated by various government policies, including the removal of subsidies on petrol.

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Notably, in July 2023, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity to address the escalating food prices. Taking decisive action, the President mandated that issues related to food and water availability and affordability fall under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council, recognising these as essential livelihood items in need of urgent attention.

In Monday’s inflation report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) detailed the key contributors to the year-on-year increase in the headline index. The leading factors include food & non-alcoholic beverages at 14.98 percent, housing water, electricity, gas & other fuel at 4.84 percent, clothing & footwear at 2.21 percent, and transport at 1.88 percent.

Additional contributors encompass furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.45 percent), education (1.14 percent), health (0.87 percent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.48 percent), restaurant & hotels (0.35 percent), alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (0.31 percent), recreation & culture (0.20 percent), and communication (0.20 percent).

The report highlighted a substantial 24.66 percent change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month period. This represents a significant 5.81 percent increase compared to the 18.85 percent recorded in December 2022, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

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Food Inflation

In a concerning trend, the food inflation rate for December 2023 surged to 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from the same period in 2022, when the rate stood at 23.75 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this rise in food inflation to notable increases in the prices of various essential items. Key contributors include bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, fish, meat, fruit, milk, cheese, and eggs.

These price hikes collectively contributed to the intensified strain on consumers, highlighting the complex dynamics driving the upward trajectory of food prices.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.72 percent, this was 0.30 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.42 percent),” it said.

Clarifying the dynamics behind the recent uptick, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) explained that the month-on-month increase in food inflation for December 2023 was spurred by a heightened rate of escalation in the average prices of oil and fat, meat, bread, and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, as well as fish and dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.96 percent, which was a 7.02 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2022 (20.94 percent),” the report added.

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