The global oil market has recorded losses exceeding $50bn following massive supply disruptions triggered by the ongoing Iran war, which has now stretched to nearly 50 days.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler showed that more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been wiped off the global market since the crisis began in late February, making it the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, on Friday said the Strait of Hormuz had been reopened after a ceasefire agreement reached in Lebanon.
However, tensions escalated again on Saturday as Tehran warned it could shut the strategic waterway if the United States sustains its blockade of Iranian ports.
Also, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a deal to end the conflict could be reached “soon,” although he did not provide a definite timeline.
Analysts warned that the scale of disruption could have prolonged effects on global energy stability, with shocks expected to linger for months or even years.
Providing context, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, Iain Mowat, said the 500 million barrels lost is equivalent to grounding global aviation demand for 10 weeks, halting all road transport worldwide for 11 days, or shutting down the entire global oil supply for five days.
Further estimates showed that the lost volume is nearly equal to one month of oil demand in the United States or more than a month’s supply for Europe. It also represents about six years of fuel consumption by the U.S. military and could power global shipping activities for approximately four months.
The crisis has significantly affected oil-producing nations in the Gulf, with output losses reaching about eight million barrels per day in March—roughly equivalent to the combined production of two of the world’s largest oil companies.
Jet fuel exports from major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, dropped sharply from 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels recorded across March and April combined. Analysts said the shortfall could have powered about 20,000 round-trip international flights.
With crude prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the onset of the conflict, the lost volumes translate to an estimated $50bn in revenue. Experts noted that this figure is equivalent to about one per cent of Germany’s annual Gross Domestic Product, or roughly the size of the economies of smaller European countries.
Meanwhile, global onshore crude inventories have declined by about 45 million barrels in April alone, while total production outages have risen to approximately 12 million barrels per day since late March.
Industry experts cautioned that unless a lasting resolution is reached, the disruption could intensify volatility in global oil markets, worsen inflationary pressures, and further strain fragile economies worldwide.