Tourism
Africa’s hospitality sector withstands economic headwinds.
SOUTH AFRICA’s hospitality sector is poised for further growth in the next five years bolstered by inbound travelers amid a difficult and volatile economic climate.
Pietro Calicchio, Hospitality & Gaming Industry Leader for PwC Southern Africa says: “Africa’s hotel sector has remained resilient in the face of strong economic headwinds.”
PwC’s 7th edition of the ‘Hotels Outlook: 2017-2021’ projects that South African hotel room revenue will grow by 10.1% in 2017 to R17.5 billion. Overall hotel room revenue for South Africa is expected to expand at a 9.3% compound annual rate to R24.8 billion in 2021 from R15.9 billion in 2016.
PwC’s report features information about hotel accommodation in South Africa, Nigeria, Mauritius, Kenya and Tanzania. This year we take our African view a step further, with looking into Ghana and Ethiopia as emerging hotel markets.
The outlook for 2017 is positive with an increase in the number of international visitors to South Africa expected. Domestic tourism is also anticipated to increase by 2.2% in 2017.
“One of the positive outcomes for the hotel market in South Africa was the amendment of visa requirements that required foreign visitors from certain countries to provide biometric data in person. International visitor numbers to South Africa rebounded significantly in 2016 with a 12.8% increase as compared to the 6.8% decrease in 2015,” Calicchio comments.
Visits from China and India increased in 2016 as a result of the relaxation in the visa requirements; travellers from China to South Africa increased by 38% and India recorded a 21.7% increase. Of non-African countries, the UK is still the largest source of visitors to South Africa at 447 840 in 2016.
Of the African countries, the largest number of foreign visitors to South Africa in 2016 came from Zimbabwe at two million, followed by Lesotho at 1.8 million and Mozambique at 1.3 million. In addition, visits from East and Central Africa also rose by 11.2% in 2016.
It is promising to note a growing number of new hotels planned for the South African market over the next five years. The overall number of available rooms is expected to increase at a 0.9% compound annual rate, thereby adding 2700 rooms over this period.
Nigeria is expected to be the fastest-growing market from a revenue perspective over the next five years with a projected 14.7% compound annual increase in revenue, benefitting from an improving economy, continued growth in domestic tourism, and expansion in the number of available rooms. South Africa is projected to be the next-fastest growing market with a 9.3% compound annual increase in room revenue, most of which will be generated by rising average room rates and continued but moderating growth in tourism.
The emergence of peer-to-peer inventory from entities such as Airbnb, has bolstered growth in non-hotel accommodation. Ongoing growth in the peer-to-peer sector over the next few years will make the market more competitive, which may limit room-rate growth for hotels.
The revenue for the five markets as a group is forecast to rise at an 8.7% compound annual rate to R59.2 billion in 2021 from R39 billion in 2016.
“Nigeria is expected to be the fastest-growing market from a revenue perspective over the next five years with a projected 14.7% compound annual increase in revenue”
Hotel accommodation: South Africa – Nigeria – Mauritius – Kenya – Tanzania
Overall, room revenue in South Africa rose 12.2% to R15.8 billion in 2016, the biggest increase since 2013. Over the past five years, the occupancy rate has risen, surpassing the 60% level and reaching 61.2% in 2016. This gain has stimulated interest and a number of new hotels are expected to open in the next five years.
Five-star hotels have had the highest occupancy rates in the market at 79.3% in 2016. Room revenue for five-star hotels is expected to expand at an 11.4% compound annual rate to R4.2 billion in 2021 from R2.4 billion in 2016.
The hotel sector in Cape Town flourished in 2016 as it is the dominant tourist destination in the country. Over the next five years, 55% of all the rooms expected to be added in South Africa will be in Cape Town. Durban’s hotel market attracts more tourists than Johannesburg, but fewer than Cape Town. Although Durban benefitted from the pick-up in tourism in 2016 a weak business market held back overall growth.
Elsewhere on the African continent, a number of initiatives have taken place to promote tourism and positively impact the hotel market. The hotel market in Nigeria rebounded in 2016 with a 5.2% increase in total revenue.
In 2016 the number of tourists to Mauritius increased by 10.8%. The hotel market has benefitted from an increase in direct flights and government investments in tourism. Room revenue increased by 15.3% in 2016 due to the 9% increase in guest nights together with an increase in average room rates.
The tourist market in Kenya rebounded in 2016 following four years after decline. The Government has introduced a number of initiatives to boost tourism. Hotel room revenue is projected to grow at 6.2% compounded annually to 2021. Over the last year, tourism increased in Tanzania despite the imposition of an 18% VAT on tourism services. Calicchio adds: “Many destinations have invested in improving and promoting the quality of their tourism offering and are reaping the benefits. In addition, we are seeing the impact of technological disruption play a part over the past year in certain countries.”
Outlook: South Africa 2017-2021
The number of available rooms is projected to rise at a 0.9% compound annual rate to 63 900 in 2021 from 61 200 in 2016. Guest nights are forecast to increase at a 1.8% compound annual rate to 15 million in 2021 from 13.7 million in 2016, with occupancy increasing to 64.3% in 2021 from 61.2% in 2016.
Outlook: Nigeria – Mauritius – Kenya – Tanzania
A number of projects in Nigeria have been delayed or postponed in the wake of the recent economic uncertainty. An 18 month moratorium was placed on hotel construction in Mauritius in November 2015. “Consequently we now expect a smaller expansion in the number of available rooms that we predicted in last year’s Outlook report,” Calicchio adds. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of activity in the market for new hotels which will continue to expand overall hotel capacity.
Nigeria is projected to be the fastest-growing market from a revenue perspective over the next five years. This is mainly due to an improved economy, continued growth in domestic tourism, and expansion in the number of available rooms. Overall hotel room revenue is expected to expand at a 14.6% compound annual rate to US$517 million (R7.6 billion) in 2021 from US$261 million (R3.8 billion) in 2016.
Mauritius is projected to be the slowest-growing of the five countries, with a 6.2% compound annual increase in room revenue. While there is a moratorium on new projects in place in the near term and relatively few rooms expected to be added through 2021, growth in the non-hotel inventory will ease pressure on average room rates.
In Kenya the number of available rooms is projected to increase from 18 600 in 2016 to 21 000 in 2021. Total room revenue is forecast to rise by 7.5% compounded annually. Tourism is the largest industry in Tanzania, accounting for more than 17% of GDP. Total room revenue is expected to rise to $371 million (R4.6 billion) in 2021 from $224 million (R3.3 billion) in 2016.
Calicchio adds: “The hotel market in each country is affected by both the local and global economy, with some countries being more dependent on foreign visitors than others. We are also seeing certain local governments continuing to invest in infrastructure and implementing other plans to unlock the substantial potential that this industry has torevenue”
Top Stories
Lagos Excels, Ranked 19th Best City In The World {See Full List}
In a recent ranking by British media and hospitality company – Time Out, Lagos has secured the 19th spot as one of the best cities to visit globally.
The rankings, based on a survey of over 20,000 city dwellers worldwide and insights from Time Out’s editorial network, highlight the diverse appeal of cities around the globe.
New York City claimed the top spot, while Cape Town in South Africa secured the second position among the 50 cities listed.
Time Out’s evaluation considered various criteria such as food quality and affordability, cultural offerings, nightlife, the overall atmosphere of the city, community vibes, access to green spaces, historic sites, and more.
Claiming the 19th position, Lagos outshone cities like Melbourne, Australia; Naples, Italy; Singapore; Miami, US; Dubai, UAE; Beijing, China; and Montreal, Canada, among others in Time Out’s global rankings.
This comprehensive list not only showcases cities that are great tourist destinations but also emphasises their suitability for living.
Time Out encourages global citizens to explore Lagos, describing it as Africa’s most populous city with something for everyone, whether one is a staunch mainlander or from Lekki. The praise extends to Posh Victoria Island, which continues to captivate visitors with its blend of swanky resorts, culinary delights, and vibrant nightlife.
“Lekki is for the brunchers – make Maple Lagos your first stop. On the mainland, Kuti’s Bistro in Ikeja, owned by the legendary afrobeat family, serves up reliably delicious food and hosts parties, karaoke, and games nights.
“And then there are the beaches – hit up Oniru Beach for some fun in the sun, but be sure to bring naira for this private beach. For those who live for the night, Hard Rock Cafe Lagos provides a massive indoor-outdoor playground with top artists including DJ Obi (‘Obi’s House’ on Mondays), who set a Guinness World Record in 2016 for a 240-hour marathon set.”
See full list below:
The World’s 20 Best Cities In 2024
New York City
Cape Town, South Africa
Berlin, Germany
London, U.K.
Madrid, Spain
Mexico City, Mexico
Liverpool, U.K.
Tokyo, Japan
Rome, Italy
Porto, Portugal
Paris, France
Mumbai, India
Lisbon, Portugal
Chicago
Manchester, U.K.
São Paulo, Brazil
Los Angeles
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Lagos
Melbourne, Australia
Top Stories
GTJ Applauds Governor Oyebanji’s Choice of Wale Ojo-Lanre for Tourism Development
The Guild of Tourism Journalists in Nigeria (GTJ) has congratulated Barrister Wale Ojo-Lanre on his recent appointment as the Director-General of the Ekiti State Tourism Development Bureau by Governor Abiodun Oyebanji.
Wale Ojo-Lanre’s appointment, officially announced just last week, comes after his dedicated service as the Special Assistant to the former Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, with a focus on Tourism Development.
Ojo-Lanre, an extensively traveled and seasoned tourism journalist, not only excels in his profession but also proudly holds membership within the association that collaborates with several states, the Federal Government and private enterprises to promote tourism in their respective regions.
In an official press statement, signed by Mr. Oladoye Oluremi, the Organising Secretary of the Association, the Guild of Tourism Journalists expressed full confidence that Ambassador Wale Ojo-Lanre’s appointment will act as a catalyst for advancing tourism development in Ekiti State, opening doors to numerous opportunities for the region.
The association extended gratitude to Governor Biodun Oyebanjo for recognising Ojo-Lanre’s qualifications for this pivotal role and entrusting him with this crucial responsibility.
They hold unwavering trust in Ojo-Lanre’s ability to excel in this significant position.
Also, the Guild of Tourism Journalists reaffirms its steadfast commitment to nurturing and promoting domestic tourism in Nigeria.
They pledge to work closely with Ekiti State and other regions, strategically increasing visitor numbers to their localities by highlighting heritage sites and other enticing attractions.
The association’s dedication to the development of Nigeria’s tourism sector remains unwavering.
National Issues
Travellers groan as summer fares spike 200%, N1m per economy seat
For the third year on the bounce, there will be no summer travel overseas for average holidaymakers in the country. No thanks to the prevailing foreign exchange liquidity crisis that has further raised airfares by at least 200 per cent and average Economy Class tickets above the N1 million-mark.
Findings show that foreign airlines are just as hard-pressed by harsh economic realities as their Nigerian customers that have been looking forward to the season. Quite a number of airlines that had earlier positioned capacity in readiness for the summer peak period are now deploying backend-pricing mechanisms to weather the effects of the forex crisis, invariably passing the cost to consumers.
• Foreign airlines ditch lowest fares, adjust exchange rate to hedge devaluation shocks
• Average travellers lament weak naira to dollar rates, fares
• ‘Demand still resilient’, top travel agencies say
Travel agencies were not unanimous on the extent of attendant dip in demand among average travellers. Undisputed, however, was the upward movement in fares, yet with resilience in patronage, especially among die-hard holidaymakers that would not mind surging costs.
Emerging from two years of pandemic disruptions, the world is fully reopening to summer travels this year. Besides the chaotic scenes at major airports in Europe and America over staff shortages, there is another disincentive for summer travellers in Nigeria – high airfare.
The Guardian survey of booking platforms of major airlines showed a major spike in available tickets to European, United States and Canadian routes among other holiday destinations. On the platforms are the traditional least airfares quoted, though not available for purchase.
Consequently, a Lagos-London-Lagos Economy Class ticket that earlier sold for an average of N350, 000 on platforms of European carriers is now available at higher layers of N1.1 million-plus. Early June 2022, the same tickets were sold for an average of N600, 000 and N650, 000 as at this time last year. Their Business Class variants, where available, were quoted for between N3.5 million to N4.8 million per seat, depending on the airline of choice and time of inquiry.
Lagos-Atlanta-Lagos Economy Class ticket was offered for between N500, 000 to N850, 000 as at June. It now sells for N1.3 million-plus where available. The Business Class fares hover between N3.6 to N5 million per person.
African and some middle-east carriers are offering fairly affordable deals for leisure travellers that would not mind hours of layover at transit airports. On their platforms are an average of N750, 000 fares to major destinations in the Middle-east and Europe.
Some air travellers have described the foregoing quotations as ‘ridiculous’. Abuja-based systems engineer and travel freak, Hameed Ailero, said air travel had gone beyond the middle class earners in Nigeria going by the rates airlines are offering tickets.
Ailero, who also traded-off summer travel last year due to high cost, said the Nigerian authorities should query the foreign airlines for “the discriminatory airfare.”
“For me, that is ridiculous and typical of countries where there are no consumer protection measures. Aviation is supposed to be the business of freedom where almost everybody should be able to fly. But how does one explain a six-hour return ticket that now goes for N1 million and in a country where minimum wage is N30, 000? How many people can afford that? That is what I mean by discrimination against average Nigerians, by both the airlines and complicit regulators.
“In June, when I was planning for a holiday trip, I got a quotation of about N680, 000 to London. Because I was calculating for a family of seven, I felt it was too much. Barely a week later, the rates jumped to over N900, 000. Such leaps in price should be questioned by a government that cares. It does not sound good even for our economy. Whatever could have caused the leap, it is sheer discriminatory against the travelling public,” Ailero said.
Another traveller that would be missing the summer party abroad, Yemisi Ogunleye, said she was banking on summer promo fares on two of the foreign carriers. “I have been travelling for summer holidays for about nine years before the pandemic, and had always got fairly good tickets. This time around, the more I hunt for promo fares, the higher the tickets keep going.
“This N1 million ticket to the UK sounds like a joke to me. Unfortunately, it is not the airlines’ fault. They know that there are categories of people that will still afford it. But if the country is better secured and people can move around on holidays, why should I bother about foreign airlines’ flight tickets?”
Publicity Secretary of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies, Yinka Ladipo, however, said that the airlines did not increase the airfares, but for the rate of exchange that rapidly spiked for reasons not unconnected with decline in the value of the naira and airlines’ funds currently stuck in Nigeria.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the clearing house for over 280 airlines globally, recently raised the alarm over a rise in the amount of unrepatriated funds in Nigeria, put at $450 million as at April this year.
Findings showed that the stuck fund, from accumulated sales of flight tickets in local currencies, was in excess of $800 million in November 2021. It was brought down to about $283 million as at March this year, but further increased to $450 million in May, and is estimated to have reached almost $600 million in June.
In that circumstance, foreign airlines had adjusted its perpetually fluctuating Rate of Exchange (RoE) from N411 to as high as N450-plus per dollar, raising airfares some notches to mitigate losses of having funds tied down in a volatile economy.
Ladipo, a travel expert at Dart Travels and Tour, added that the foreign airlines have also blocked layers of affordable airfares for the Nigerian travelling public. “On the platforms, you will, for instance, see fares of N300,000 for London, but it is not available, except for those of N650,000 upward. It is really tough on everybody,” he said.
Chairman of the Airline Passenger Joint Committee of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Bankole Bernard, added that Nigeria was reaping the dividend of its failure to accord priority to foreign airlines and their cash-calls.
Bernard explained that airlines made monies either by volume or by yield. “Volume is when they sell their cheap tickets so that a lot of people will be able to travel because they are given access to cheap fares. In the absence of volume, they turn to yield and the money they are supposed to make from five people, they will make it from one person and deny the other four that want to travel. So, the airlines did not increase the fares, they only removed the cheap ones for the expensive ones.”
Bernard, who is also the Chief Executive Officer of Finchglow Holdings, added that people, especially the well-off Nigerians, are still braving the odds to travel, though with a tweak in choices of destinations and budget size.
“There are people that will do everything possible to travel because movement has become inevitable. The only difference is that instead of two or three destinations on a summer trip, they will do either two or one. So, the market is booming for summer travel, though people are paying through their nose,” he said.
President of Skal Nigeria, Daisi Olotu, affirmed that without government making allowances for the travelling public, airfares have become cut-throat and even Basic Travel Allowance (BTA) are not readily accessible at the banks.
“Should we then blame the airlines if they insist that they want to sell in dollars? We can’t blame them, but the cost will eventually be passed down to the travellers. Yet travelling is part of education.
“The entire world is moving while we have decided to remain on self-imposed lockdown. That is unfortunate. Yes people are still breaking their banks to travel, but the industry has not grown the way it should and the authorities should be worried,” Olotu said.
IATA’s Regional Vice-President, Africa, and the Middle East, Kamil Al-Awadhi, had described efforts to persuade the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reduce the backlog as “a hectic ride”.
Al-Awadhi, however, warned that countries with foreign airlines’ trapped funds are sure to have airfares that are three times higher than global rates, to enable airlines to make profit from one leg of the trip instead of on return.
“It is sad that Nigeria owes the bulk of the entire blocked funds. This is very unacceptable. We heard that there is a shortage of dollars. Airlines are scrambling to get more flights to Nigeria. Nigerian travellers are willing to pay for it. But the trapped fund is not helping the airlines and not helping other Nigerians to travel. The prices are ridiculously expensive, more than twice the price. We urgently need the funds for more work,” Al-Awadhi said.
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