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2019: Eurasia Group Predicts PMB’s Victory

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One of the world’s largest political risk consultancy firms, the Eurasia Group, has predicted the outcome of the 2019 presidential election.

Eurasia Group, which predicted that Muhammadu Buhari will defeat former president, Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, has again predicted victory for the incumbent President in the next Saturday’s election.

It further explained that the Director General of Atiku’s Campaign, Senator Bukola Saraki was distracted by the battles he is facing in the National Assembly coupled with the weak campaign being run by South-East governors, who are not too happy with the emergence of Atiku’s running mate, Peter Obi, as key reasons Atiku may lose to Buhari.

The Group which was founded in 1998 by American political scientist, Ian Bremmer, said Buhari has a 60 per cent probability to win.

This was contained in its recent Political Forecast displayed on its official website ahead of the Saturday’s showdown.

It said, “Opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu Buhari remains favored to win (a 60% probability),” the group said.

“On election day, the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local political structures and resources, it governs 23 states compared to the opposition’s 12, will boost voter mobilization and solidify Buhari’s advantage.

“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough Senate reelection battle in Kwara state, and the southeast governors are hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government) and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the southeastern Anambra state who they view as a political outsider.

“The lack of enthusiasm on the part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as ‘security votes’) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.”

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Alleged KGB Infiltration: Police in Dilemma as Senator Natasha Abandons Petition, Snubs Summons

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The Nigeria Police Force appears to be in a quandary over its investigation into the alleged infiltration of the National Assembly by Russia’s KGB (Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti), the former Soviet security agency.

Checks revealed that the police had invited the Senator representing Kogi West, Sunday Karimi, for interrogation following a petition filed by his colleague, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of Kogi Central.

In the petition dated March 5, 2025, Akpoti-Uduaghan, who is currently serving a six-month suspension from the Senate, urged the police to investigate Karimi’s claim that the KGB had infiltrated the National Assembly, posing a serious threat to Nigeria’s democracy.

She specifically alleged that Senator Karimi had circulated a report titled “KGB Agent Group Warns Senate: A Call for Vigilance Amidst Threats to Democracy” on the official WhatsApp group of the 10th Senate on February 23, 2025.

Describing the claim as a matter of national security, Akpoti-Uduaghan insisted that the alarm raised by Karimi should not be taken lightly. “No nation can afford to ignore the presence of such a group within its legislative body,” she emphasized in her petition.

Karimi Appears Before Police, Natasha Recoils

Further investigations revealed that Senator Karimi honored the police invitation on Monday, appearing at the Force Headquarters in Abuja to clarify his position.

Sources within the police described his session as “positive and insightful,” revealing that he admitted to sharing the report in question. However, the police were reportedly taken aback when Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan distanced herself from the petition and ignored requests to appear for questioning.

“We reached out to her after our session with Senator Karimi, expecting her to provide further clarification, but she has continuously ignored our invitation,” a senior police source disclosed.

“What is disturbing is how she suddenly abandoned such a serious petition against her colleague. First, she claimed to be outside the country, but a viral video has since surfaced showing her in her constituency. It is difficult to reconcile her claims with the information available to us,” the source added.

The police official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, further hinted at possible political undertones behind the petition.

“We do not want to meddle in the ongoing power play within the Senate. However, it would be scandalous if she attempted to use the police as a tool in her political battles.”

When asked about the possible next steps, the source stated that his superiors would determine the fate of the petition, which he described as “frivolous.”

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Twelve Inmates Escape in Kotonkarfe Jailbreak

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Twelve inmates have escaped from the Federal Correctional Centre in Kotonkarfe, Kogi State, following an early morning jailbreak on Monday.

Confirming the incident, the Kogi State Commissioner for Information, Kingsley Fanwo, described it as “unfortunate” and assured the public that the government, in collaboration with security agencies, was taking measures to prevent a recurrence.

According to Fanwo, law enforcement officers have already re-arrested one of the escapees.

“The theory that the inmates escaped through the tower without causing any structural damage raises serious concerns. This calls for a thorough investigation to determine the exact circumstances of the escape, arrest the fleeing inmates, and identify possible saboteurs within the system,” he stated.

The commissioner further disclosed that Governor Usman Ododo has directed security agencies to ensure that such breaches do not happen again.

“We call on the public to report any suspicious individuals in their communities. Anyone found harbouring an escaped inmate will be held accountable,” Fanwo warned.

Reassuring residents, he added: “There is no cause for panic. We encourage citizens to go about their daily activities as normal, knowing that the security of lives and property remains our top priority.”

Authorities have yet to disclose further details about the escapees or ongoing efforts to apprehend them.

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Trump Ends Legal Status for Over 500,000 Immigrants, Orders Mass Expulsions

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The United States has announced the termination of legal status for over 500,000 immigrants, ordering them to leave the country within weeks, as President Donald Trump pushes forward with what he calls the largest deportation campaign in American history.

The sweeping directive, issued on Friday, affects approximately 532,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who arrived under a programme launched by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, in October 2022 and later expanded in January 2023.

According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the affected immigrants will lose their legal protections 30 days after the order is published in the Federal Register on Tuesday. This means they must leave the United States by 24 April, unless they secure another immigration status permitting them to stay.

Welcome.US, an organisation that supports asylum seekers, has urged those impacted to “immediately” seek legal counsel regarding their options.

A Reversal of Biden’s Immigration Policy

The Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV) programme, introduced in January 2023, allowed up to 30,000 migrants per month from these nations to enter the United States for two years. The initiative was designed to offer a “safe and humane” alternative to the dangerous crossings at the US-Mexico border, which had seen a surge in arrivals.

However, the DHS reiterated on Friday that the programme was never meant to provide permanent residency.

“Parole is inherently temporary, and parole alone is not an underlying basis for obtaining any immigration status, nor does it constitute an admission to the United States,” the agency stated.

Mass Deportations Under Trump

Trump, who has made immigration control a cornerstone of his presidency, has vowed to crack down on migrants—particularly those from Latin America.

Last week, he invoked rare wartime legislation to deport more than 200 alleged members of a Venezuelan gang to El Salvador, a country that has controversially offered to imprison both migrants and U.S. citizens at a discounted rate.

The latest order signals Trump’s intent to follow through on his hardline immigration policies, raising concerns among human rights advocates about the humanitarian impact of such mass deportations.

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