AFTER the Ekiti State Governorship election which was won by the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Kayode Fayemi, attention is now on September 22nd Governorship Election in the state of Osun.

Just like the Governor Ayodele Fayose’s tenure in Ekiti will be over in October, Governor Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola will also bow out of office in November this year.

It is certain, except if the unfortunate incident happen, God forbid; Governor Fayose will definitely handover to the Governor Elect, Dr Kayode Fayemi, a replica of 2014 handing over ceremony.

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The question is, who will succeed ‘Baba Kabiru’, who is the next occupant of Abere government secretariat?

Without iota of doubt, the race is between the ‘Dancing Senator’ of PDP, Chief Ademola Adeleke, who is the younger brother of the first civilian Governor in the state of Osun, Senator Isiaka Adeleke and Gentle Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, the current Chief of Staff to Osun state Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Political Associate of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

Senator Ademola, who is the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) hails from Ede in Osun West Senatorial District, while Alh Gboyega Oyetola, a native of Iragbiji in Osun Central Senatorial district is the standard bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the September 22nd governorship election in the state.

Also considering the new Abere government secretariat occupant, another factor is the former Deputy Governor in the state under the government of Chief Bisi Akande, Senator Iyiola Omisore who is the controversial governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party, (SDP).

If the leadership tussle in Osun state chapter of the SDP is settled on time and Senator Omisore eventually emerged, then the race is between the trio.

The Strongholds

THE APC Governorship candidate, Alh Gboyega Oyetola is from Osun Central that comprises Osogbo, Ikirun, Ila, Iree, Iragbiji, Orooruwo , Agbaa, Ada, Eripa, Obaagun among others.

Some of these towns, especially Ikirun, Ila, Iree and Osogbo, the state capital are the strongholds of the progressive fold.

Alh Gboyega Oyetola

In Osun West senatorial district, where PDP candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke was picked, housed town like Ede, Ejigbo, Ife -Odan, Ikire, Iwo, Ode – Omu, Gbongan and some other adjoining towns and villages.

The PDP stronghold remains Ede, Ikire, Apomu,Ife- Odan, Gbongan and Ode- Omu while other towns like Ejigbo and Iwo belongs to the progressive going by the results of the bye – election in the district.

Ademola Adeleke

In Osun East Senatorial District, the home base of Senator Iyiola Omisore, the factional SDP governorship candidate, and the Incumbent governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola comprises Ife, Ilesha, Ipetumodu, Ifetedo, Ijebu-Jesa, Iperindo, Esa- Oke, Ife-wara among others.

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Just like other candidates, Ife and its environ remains the stronghold of SDP while Ilesha, the home town of Governor Aregbesola and some parts of Ijesha land will likely vote for APC.

Other ‘influences’ considered by political analysts include the factor of Money, Power of Incumbency and Electorate who are the main determinant in the September 22nd Governorship election.

Omisore

Even in the 1993 general elections which is the most fair, freest and credible election, the three factors, especially money played prominent role.

Although the infrastructural turn around in Osogbo and ultra modern schools coupled with good road networks tagged ‘Ona Baba Ona’ in all the local government areas of the state under Aregbesola is a plus for his party’s candidate, Alhaji Oyetola.

On the contrary, irregular and half payment of salaries labelled ‘Hafusa’ is a Minus for the ruling party in the state.

Another Minus for the ruling APC is the defection of Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, the Secretary to the government under Aregbe’s administration to African Democratic Party (ADP) is a big blow because Iwo which Adeoti came from is the stronghold of progress Party.

Alhaji Moshood Adeoti

Of course, the major opposition party always capitalised on the weakness of the ruling party and carefully observed some of their programmes as a way of canvassing for votes.

Less than two months to the September 22nd governorship poll, if the backlog of salaries are not paid on time, workers may decide otherwise and this may be a Plus for the opposition parties.

Also, another Plus for the APC is the defection of Senator Omisore from PDP to SDP. This is because, most of the Chieftains in the PDP moved with Omisore, thus, this is indeed; a Minus for the party that promised to wrestle power from the APC.

Unlike Oyo state, where Ibadan, the state capital with 11 local governments including less city has 51 percent of the eligible voters, Osun state with 30 local governments housed strong cities such as Osogbo, Ede, Ife, Ilesha, Ila, Ikirun, Iwo, Ikire among others with appreciable votes.

If Aregbesola’s candidate wins, then it will be the first in the history of the state for Progressive Party to hand over to another Progressive Government. But if otherwise, it will be the replica of what happened in Ekiti state.

September 22nd is knocking and left for electorate in Osun state to determine who will pilot the affairs of the state for another four years.

On the side of the umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) the just concluded Ekiti governorship election is an improvement on the part of the commission, but there is need to intensify more effort, especially on the malfunctioning of card readers and collection of Permanent Voter cards ahead of the governorship poll.

No doubt, Nigerians are waiting and hoping for free, fair and credible election in Osun state and this will also serve as template for the forthcoming 2019 general elections.

By Akinyode Ishola

Mega Icon Magazine, Political Desk