With the margin of victory, the incumbent Governor Adegboyega Oyetola would probably still have lost if he had reconciled with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola.
Adeleke’s strategy of engagement was better than the last election and he was clearly one step ahead of the game.
Aregbesola would feel he has exacted revenge. He is entitled to that feeling given the way anything or anybody attached to his name was treated by Oyetola. It’s a bitter-sweet outcome for the Osun Progressives (TOP) group. They are out of the game completely for now but they can hang on to the satisfaction that Oyetola will no longer spit in their faces.
Could Bola Tinubu have done a lot better to mend fences? Oh yes but he fell short. While the defeat is bad and dangerous to his ambition to be president, he has 7 months to right many wrongs in the party structure of his party in his ancestral state. There is a lesson in humility and give-and-take. In politics, with a view to winning elections, winners in a party should not take all. The disgruntled are always out to sting.
For the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), it’s a sort of impetus and feel-good factor after the scalding defeat in Ekiti State where they also suffered from a disunited house. The battle for the South-west is on. It is be foolhardy to wave away the threats the party and Atiku may pose. It’s 4-2 now. The old Oyo State is cast in the hand of the PDP.
To start dissecting what went wrong in a comprehensive way will be left to more inclined political analysts but I have to say that the PORTABLE factor was in very bad taste. It certainly cost the All Progressives Congress (APC) votes of decent neutrals. Everything about engaging him to perform, apart from the crowd catching glimpses of him, was wrong. And him mounting the statute of Obafemi Awolowo with his trousers pull down is disgraceful. His viral video afterwards cursing and ranting did no good at all. Comparing his cameo with Davido’s dignified appearance on the other side is like comparing a prince to a tramp.
While the battle for the south-west is certainly on, will the result have a big impact on the presidential contest? It’s reasonable to think so even though Osun is just one of 37 territories the election will take place. If it is to be a straight battle between Tinubu and Atiku, I will be overly concerned. Peter Obi gaining momentum in Atiku’s traditional fortresses will take a huge hit. It will be interesting to see how events unfold in the next few months.
Oyo APC is as fragmented as the Osun APC. While it’s better that the most of the aggrieved have not stayed back in the party to cause sabotage, the chunks that have left are significant. 7 months is a long time in politics though.
I congratulate Governor-elect, Adeleke Nurudeen Jackson Ademola. He has done well to reinvent himself after a certificate scandal and his hard work has paid off. Dancing, when we leave out politics, is actually a trait of happiness. May the people of Osun find happiness in his administration.
To my PDP friends, enjoy the victory.
Muideen Alatede, a lawyer and politician writes from Ibadan, Oyo state
