Politics
Nigeria at a Crossroads: The Upcoming Elections || By Tibor P. Nagy, Jr
THE Department of State agrees with the view that Nigeria’s February 2019 national elections are a critical test. The conduct of the elections could have significant consequences for the democratic trajectory of Nigeria, West Africa, and the entire continent.
The conduct of the 2015 Nigerian elections, although by no means perfect, was a step forward for Nigeria’s democracy. That contest resulted in Nigeria’s first-ever democratic transfer of power to a non-incumbent party, thereby increasing capacity and improving conduct of Nigerian democratic institutions and election bodies.
Key Goals and Actions
In advance of the 2019 elections, the U.S. government continues to support the Nigerian goal of free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections that reflect the will of the Nigerian people. Through diplomacy, robust public engagement including with Nigeria’s youth and civil society, and democracy and governance programs, we are helping the country to strengthen its democratic institutions and processes. The United States does not support any single candidate. We support a democratic process that is free, fair, transparent, peaceful, and reflects the will of the Nigerian people.
The U.S. government has developed a comprehensive election strategy to plan and coordinate our efforts. We have three main objectives:
- Support a free and fair electoral process, including technical assistance to Nigeria’s election institutions, civil society, and political parties as well as U.S. government monitoring of the election around the country;
- Prevent and mitigate electoral violence, including conflict monitoring, peacebuilding programs, and peace messaging;
- Support civic and political engagement, including support to Nigerian civil society election observation and parallel vote tabulation, social media campaigns to engage youth including through our Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), “get out the vote” campaigns, voter education, and Nigerian efforts to counter disinformation.
To advance our strategy, we have sustained high-level diplomatic engagement from Washington as well as robust and regular engagement by our Ambassador, Consul General, USAID Mission Director, and other officials based in Abuja and Lagos. Earlier this year, President Trump welcomed President Buhari to the White House and conveyed our expectations for a credible election. Two Secretaries of State, USAID Administrator Green, Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan, and many others have either traveled to Nigeria or met with senior Nigerian officials in the United States to underscore our commitment to free, fair, transparent, and peaceful Nigerian elections in the last twelve months.
The State Department also hosted the Nigerian Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman in late October to observe U.S. preparation for mid-term elections and discuss challenges surrounding Nigeria’s elections. During this visit, INEC Chairman Yakubu observed early voting in Maryland, and met with Congressional staff, U.S. electoral civil society and legal experts, and U.S. government officials. The Chairman also met with USAID Administrator Green and Under Secretary for Political Affairs Hale.
I recently returned from Nigeria as part of my first trip to the continent. It was great to be back in Nigeria where I served as Charge d ’Affairs in 2016 and Deputy Chief of Mission from 1993-1995, and convey our expectations and concerns for the elections in person. I met with leadership from the two main political parties, INEC Chairman Yakubu, and civil society organizations, delivering public messages on the elections in a speech and in press engagements and private messages with key stakeholders.
That is just a summary of our Washington-focused diplomatic engagement on these elections. Our Ambassador and the Mission in Nigeria are working to advance our goals every day. My colleague from USAID will tell you more about the USAID programs in support of our three objectives. And, I can assure you that the U.S. government will remain intensely focused on the Nigerian elections in the coming months.
Expectations and Concerns
I know many of you are watching the election closely. We share many of the areas of concern that you have voiced. We are monitoring and messaging – both publicly and privately – to mitigate a few key areas of risk that could jeopardize a free and fair process. For example:
- potential attacks on the legitimacy of INEC and the electoral process for political gain;
- intimidation and partisanship by security forces;
- heightened insecurity, terrorist attacks on elections institutions, or violence towards voters, observers, or electoral officials;
- an inability of large numbers of internally displaced persons or persons with disabilities to vote;
- voter suppression, the use of armed gangs for voter intimidation, and other drivers of electoral violence, including a lack of official condemnation of hate speech and disinformation;
- wide-spread vote buying that challenges the integrity of the electoral process.
On November 18, the start of official campaigning, our Mission in Abuja released a statement with 25 like-minded missions to express our desire to see free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections, specifically naming many of these concerns. I can assure you we will be watching closely for instigators of violence or those attempting to undermine the democratic process.
Many of you have expressed particular concern about violence around these elections. I can tell you from my impressions during my travels and my previous service in Nigeria that I fear there will be some violence around these elections, as has been the case with previous elections. I do not anticipate large-scale nation-wide conflict, but rather localized violence. We are already seeing increased tensions and polarization as the election approaches. We assess that politicians are turning to narratives of identity politics in an attempt to improve their popularity, with potentially serious consequences for national unity. However, Nigeria’s political system and society have weathered such tensions before.
But, let me underscore that the U.S. government takes the risk of any loss of human life extremely seriously. As I just mentioned, preventing electoral violence is one of our three main objectives for our diplomacy and programs. When I was in Nigeria, I asked officials from both major parties to sign pledges that their candidates would conduct peaceful campaigns, and both major candidates have now signed a peace pledge. In assessing potential “hot spots” for violence, we look at places that are historically volatile around elections such as Rivers and Borno states. We look at states that are currently tense, especially if state-level politics are contentious like those in Benue, Plateau, as well as those in high-stakes locations with large populations such as Kano. We regularly engage with civil society organizations working in these “hotspots” and support their peacebuilding efforts. USAID programs and our public diplomacy campaigns also support peace campaigns across the country, such as #VoteNotFight. Through our YALI Network Nigeria campaign, Nigerians have made over 10,000 pledges to boost voter participation, reject violence, and vote with integrity.
Conclusion
As I said in a speech in Nigeria, only the Nigerian people can determine lasting solutions and a path forward toward peace and stability. 2019 will be a significant year for Nigerian democracy – it has been 20 years since the country returned to democratic rule and this election’s youngest voters have never known a Nigeria without democracy. The upcoming elections provide Nigerians an opportunity to shape their country and solidify its place as a democratic leader in Africa.
Tibor P. Nagy, Jr. Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs U.S. House of Representatives, Sub-Committee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations
With Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election drawing closer, fresh political alignments are taking shape, with various stakeholders strategising to position their preferred candidates for the race to Aso Rock. Amidst this, loyalists of former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, have reportedly initiated discussions with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) about a potential move by the ex-Anambra governor.
Speaking on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, a socio-political programme aired on Channels Television and monitored by our correspondent, SDP’s National Secretary, Dr Olu Agunloye, confirmed that Obi’s associates had approached the party to explore the possibility of his defection.
“Obi’s people came to us to say if Obi comes, would you take him? Of course, we told them: ‘Yes’. I was in that meeting. Some of them are with us, saying that they are preparing the ground, but you have to join SDP. You cannot be in the Labour Party and be telling us Obi is coming without joining us, otherwise, we can’t open our doors for you,” Agunloye stated.
Obi Remains Silent Amidst Speculations
Despite these claims, Obi himself has yet to publicly declare any intention to leave the Labour Party, the platform on which he contested the 2023 presidential election and finished as the runner-up. While his loyalists may be engaging other parties, there has been no official confirmation from the former governor regarding his political future.
Obi, a former governor of Anambra State and a prominent figure in Nigeria’s political landscape, continues to enjoy significant support from his followers, many of whom believe he remains the best alternative to the ruling establishment. However, with the SDP already boasting seven presidential aspirants, the political equation could become more complex if he eventually decides to make a move.
As the countdown to 2027 intensifies, political observers are keenly watching Obi’s next steps, particularly whether he will remain with the Labour Party or seek a fresh platform to relaunch his presidential ambition.
The Oyo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has fiercely opposed Governor Seyi Makinde’s move to secure a fresh loan of N200 billion, describing it as reckless and detrimental to the state’s financial future. The party called on concerned Nigerians to intervene and prevail upon the governor to abandon the borrowing plan.
According to the party, it said sources had revealed that Governor Makinde sought and secured approval for the loan on Tuesday, allegedly through the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Debo Ogundoyin, and a few select lawmakers. It added that the governor’s request, contained in a letter dated 13th March 2025, cited the need to refinance an existing loan from a commercial bank.
In a statement issued on Tuesday and made available to journalists in Ibadan, Oyo APC’s Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare, condemned the move, insisting that the governor’s borrowing spree was driving the state into a financial mess.
“Another distressing development has emerged from the Oyo State House of Assembly today. The Speaker and a handful of his loyalists have secretly approved a fraudulent loan request from the governor without the knowledge of most of their colleagues. This decision was only made public through a post-plenary document released by the Clerk of the House,” the statement read.
Sadare decried the mounting debt profile of Oyo State under Makinde, alleging that the governor had already incurred over N300 billion in loans over the last six years. He questioned why, despite such heavy borrowing, the state had little to show in terms of infrastructural development, economic growth, and agricultural advancement.
“If the previous loans had been judiciously used to improve infrastructure, build the economy, and ensure food security through a sustainable agricultural revolution, there would be no need for concern. Unfortunately, the present PDP administration has demonstrated a lack of accountability and is determined to mortgage the future of Oyo State,” he said.
The APC spokesman further questioned the rationale behind the fresh loan request, citing the substantial revenue inflows into the state’s coffers.
“For the record, Governor Makinde receives an average of N11 billion in federal allocation and another N11 billion on behalf of the 33 local government councils. In addition, the state generates no less than N3 billion in Internally Generated Revenue, bringing the total monthly revenue to at least N25 billion. The critical question now is: what exactly is he doing with this massive income, and why does Oyo still need another huge loan?”
Sadare accused the governor of failing to prioritise essential needs despite the available funds, lamenting that workers in state-owned tertiary institutions were not being paid a living wage, while key sectors such as emergency response, agriculture, and education remained neglected.
“Oyo State cannot even afford five fully functional fire trucks to tackle emergencies. Farmers lack access to modern equipment, while the state’s public schools are deteriorating rapidly. Yet, Governor Makinde, who has failed to complete an ordinary bus terminal after allegedly spending N20 billion, has now set his sights on an airport upgrade project as another means to siphon public funds,” he added.
The APC spokesman also took a swipe at Speaker Ogundoyin, accusing him of acting as a rubber stamp for the governor’s financial dealings.
“The manner in which this N200 billion loan was hurriedly approved exposes the Speaker as a willing accomplice in Makinde’s financial recklessness. However, justice will eventually prevail, and no one involved in this dubious scheme will escape accountability,” Sadare warned.
As of the time of filing this report, efforts to get a reaction from the Oyo State government and the Speaker of the House of Assembly were unsuccessful.
A former governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos, Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, has officially rejoined the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Jandor announced his return to the ruling party at a press conference in Lagos on Monday, approximately two weeks after resigning from the PDP.
In his address, he explained his decision, stating that APC prioritises electoral victory regardless of the candidate.
“We have decided to return to the All Progressives Congress, APC,” he declared.
Anticipating criticism over his political move, he referenced a Yoruba proverb, saying:
“Before you are quick to remind me of the reasons why I dumped APC, I want to say that there is a Yoruba adage that says, if a woman has not tried two husbands, she would not know which one is better.”
Jandor had previously left the PDP on 3rd March 2025, citing what he described as anti-party activities by some leaders in Lagos State.
“We were waiting to see if the party at the national level, governed by its constitution, would address these anti-party activities. Instead of sanctions, the same individual was appointed Vice Chairman of the Disciplinary Committee,” he said at the time.
Following his resignation from the PDP, Jandor met with several political figures, including President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as well as other key stakeholders in Nigeria’s political landscape.
Jandor’s political journey began with the APC, where he led the Lagos4Lagos Movement before defecting in 2022. He joined the PDP ahead of the 2023 governorship election and became the party’s flagbearer in Lagos, but lost to APC’s Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
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