News
AfDB Warns of Potential Social Unrest in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Others
In its latest macroeconomic performance and outlook report for 2024, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has raised concerns over the escalating prices of fuel and other commodities, noting the potential for social unrest in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola, and Kenya.
Despite an optimistic projection for Africa’s overall economic growth, with a rebound to 3.8% in 2024 compared to the 3.2% recorded in 2023, the AfDB emphasised the precarious situation in these specific countries.
The bank pointed to the looming threat of internal conflicts, cautioning that the surge in fuel and commodity prices, driven by currency depreciation or subsidy removal, could act as a catalyst for social unrest.
It stated, “Internal conflicts and violence could also result from rising prices for fuel and other commodities due to weaker domestic currencies and reforms.
“For instance, the removal of fuel subsidies in Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria and the resulting social costs has led to social unrest driven by opposition to government policy.”
The African Development Bank (AfDB) also highlighted additional global concerns, stating that the escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, coupled with the El Niño phenomenon, could potentially trigger supply chain disruptions. These disruptions may exacerbate energy and food inflation worldwide, with Africa deemed more susceptible to these shocks.
In Nigeria, the rising cost of living has become a source of growing concern, prompting protests in several states.
The crisis is attributed to the federal government’s policies, particularly the removal of the petrol subsidy and the decision to float the naira.
The protest against increasing hardship commenced in Minna, Niger State on February 5, triggering similar demonstrations in other states.
Several notable figures are now expressing concern, emphasising that urgent action is needed to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
Among them is an individual from the Sultan of Sokoto, who, during the 6th Executive Committee Meeting of the Northern Traditional Rulers Council in Kaduna, noted the escalating economic hardship, asserting that citizens are becoming increasingly agitated, angry, and hungry.
He specifically cautioned the Federal Government that the growing challenges of insecurity, poverty, and unemployment, particularly in the North, might lead to unstoppable public discontent.
“To make matters worse, we are faced with the rising level of poverty amongst our people, lack of normal sources of livelihood for the common man to have even if it is one good meal a day.
“I believe talking of insecurity and the rising level of poverty are two issues that we cannot fold our arms and think everything is okay. I have said it so many times and at so many fora that things are not okay in Nigeria and of course, things are not okay in the North,” he said.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has announced a two-day nationwide protest in response to the prevailing hardship and worsening security conditions in the country.
Following an emergency meeting of the National Executive Council (NEC) on Friday, NLC President Joe Ajaero stated in a press conference that the protest is set to commence a week after the 14-day ultimatum issued to the Federal Government, expiring on February 23.
The scheduled days for the nationwide protest are February 27 and 28.
The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has initiated enforcement action against five airlines—two international and three domestic operators—for various violations of its regulations under Part 19.
The offenses include non-payment of passenger refunds within the stipulated timeframe, non-responsiveness to NCAA directives, mishandling of luggage, short-landed baggage, delayed and canceled flights, among other infractions.
Addressing journalists at the NCAA’s corporate headquarters in Abuja on Tuesday, Michael Achimugu, the Authority’s spokesman, stated that airlines must adhere to regulations regarding flight disruptions. He emphasized that failure to comply attracts sanctions.
“Although airlines are not always responsible for flight disruptions, NCAA regulations stipulate actions that airlines must take during such incidents. Failure to comply attracts various levels of sanctions,” Achimugu said.
He reminded airlines of the NCAA’s recent directive mandating refunds to passengers within 14 days for online ticket purchases and immediate cash refunds for tickets bought with cash.
The yuletide season has seen a rise in passenger complaints about delays and cancellations, largely attributed to harmattan-induced poor visibility. Achimugu clarified that airlines are not liable for cancellations due to force majeure but stressed that the enforcement actions are for cases where airlines are found at fault.
“This is harmattan season, so there is poor visibility. Flights must get canceled. This is force majeure, and the airlines do not owe passengers anything in those instances. The enforcement we are initiating today is on cases where the airline is deemed to have been at fault. More will come,” he explained.
Achimugu further disclosed that the NCAA would summon the chief executives of all airlines this week to address flight disruptions and regulatory breaches.
While the names of the sanctioned airlines were not officially revealed, sources close to the Authority identified them as Ethiopian Airways, Royal Maroc Airways, Arik Air, Aero Contractors, and Air Peace.
The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, Nentawe Yilwatda, has announced the Federal Government’s plan to reach 15 million households, representing 75 million people, through its conditional cash transfer scheme.
Speaking on Monday during an interview on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief, Yilwatda explained that the initiative is part of President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to mitigating the economic hardships faced by vulnerable Nigerians.
“The president was so specific,” Yilwatda noted.
“There are policies that he brought in to see if that can ease those challenges for people at the lower end of the pyramid. One of those policies is to reach out to 15 million beneficiaries under the conditional cash transfer, targeting households rather than individuals. Each household will receive ₦25,000 monthly, paid three times a year.”
Yilwatda further clarified that the 15 million households being targeted translate to 75 million Nigerians, assuming an average of five persons per household.
So far, the Federal Government has reached five million individuals but is facing challenges in fully sanitizing the social register, particularly with the implementation of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policy mandating digital identities for transparency and traceability of payments.
“Currently, only 1.4 million people on the social register have digital identities. Many of those we are targeting are outside the formal banking system,” the minister disclosed.
Yilwatda emphasized that women are specifically targeted as household leaders under the program to ensure the funds are used effectively for the benefit of children and other vulnerable members of society.
The conditional cash transfer programme, which is administered under the National Social Investment Programme, had earlier been suspended by President Tinubu in January due to allegations of corruption. However, the scheme was reinstated in February, with plans to extend the initiative to an additional 12 million households.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has assured Nigerians of a reduction in the pump price of petrol within the week, following adjustments to the ex-depot price by key players in the industry.
Last week, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and the Dangote Refinery announced a reduction in the ex-depot price of petrol to ₦899 per litre in Lagos. Despite this, the pump price at many filling stations across the country has remained unchanged.
However, PETROAN President, Billy Gilly-Harry, during a Monday appearance on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily, expressed optimism that the price change would soon reflect in retail outlets.
“But I believe from today when members start loading from both NNPC and Dangote at this new price reduction, it will reflect in the market,” he said.
Gilly-Harry lauded some members of PETROAN, particularly in Abuja, for proactively reducing their pump prices to below ₦1,000 even before the official announcement. He emphasized that while members strive to serve Nigerians by providing affordable fuel, they must maintain marginal profitability to sustain operations.
“We don’t encourage our members to try to sell products at a loss because our focus is to serve Nigerians. And the only way we can serve Nigerians is when we have the resources to do so. The resources can only be there if we’re making marginal profit enough to pay for the cost of money and ensure continuity in business,” he noted.
Addressing concerns over the delay in implementing the price reduction, Gilly-Harry explained that some retailers are still selling old stock purchased at higher prices.
“This reduction, if you apply it immediately, don’t forget that some of them bought at ₦970, paid transportation costs and logistics that have taken it quite high,” he said. “By the time it gets to their retail outlets, it’s quite much more than that. And so they must also sell at a profit – minimal marginal profit as provisioned by the PIA. So, that’s the reason.”
The PETROAN boss commended both the NNPCL and Dangote Refinery for their efforts in reducing the ex-depot price, which he described as a significant step toward easing the burden on Nigerians.
Nigerians are now hopeful that the price adjustment will translate into tangible relief at filling stations in the coming days.
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