The 2023 presidential election in Nigeria was a tense three-horse race involving the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Labour Party (LP). However, developments ahead of the 2027 presidential contest suggest a potential four-party showdown, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) joining the fray — a move that may inadvertently favour President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid.
As it stands, President Tinubu is expected to contest under the APC platform. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who flew the PDP flag in 2023, is now being touted as the likely presidential candidate of the ADC. This emerging shift has left political watchers speculating that Atiku’s exit could further weaken the PDP and help consolidate the APC’s electoral strength.
The PDP, once Nigeria’s most formidable political force, appears fragmented. The perceived defection of Atiku Abubakar and the growing uncertainty around the political direction of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, have left the party in a state of internal disarray. Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, known for defying political odds, is reportedly eyeing the PDP presidential ticket — a move that could trigger fresh tensions within the already balkanised party.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party remains firmly in the hands of former Anambra State Governor, Mr. Peter Obi. The movement that emerged around his 2023 candidacy, popularly known as the “Obidients”, remains fiercely loyal and ideologically opposed to both the APC and PDP. However, any decision by Obi to accept a vice-presidential slot could alienate his support base, potentially leading to a defection of his loyalists to other platforms.
Observers believe the entry of the African Democratic Congress, with Atiku Abubakar as its likely flagbearer, has reshaped the political terrain — not necessarily by strengthening opposition forces, but by further splintering them. With the PDP still grappling with identity and unity issues, and Labour Party standing alone with its distinct youthful demographic, the APC may have less to worry about in terms of a formidable opposition bloc.
Beneath the surface, the All Progressives Congress is reinforcing its grassroots presence in strategic states. Recent realignments in Akwa Ibom, Delta, and Rivers states point to quiet but effective groundwork being laid by the party. The APC is building an electoral fortress across the country in anticipation of 2027.
With a reputation as a master strategist and a maverick in political maneuvering, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is considered a formidable force in Nigerian politics. Political strategists believe that none of the current contenders — former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Peter Obi, or Governor Seyi Makinde — pose a consolidated threat unless opposition parties forge a united front.
It is also worth noting that all three challengers — Atiku, Obi, and Makinde — share a common political ancestry in the PDP, which once held Nigeria’s presidency for 16 years. Today, the party appears to be haemorrhaging influence, credibility, and top-tier candidates.
In a political class where most actors are poor losers, the increasing splintering of opposition platforms is viewed by some as a self-inflicted wound — one that could simplify the re-election campaign for President Tinubu.
With the African Democratic Congress offering Atiku Abubakar a new platform, and the Labour Party retaining Peter Obi as its leader, opposition forces seem more divided than ever. Unless drastic steps are taken to build consensus, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be heading into the 2027 presidential election with a clear and widened path.
Prof. Adeniyi Olowofela writes from Abuja, the nation’s capital.
