Edo 2020 Election: Observations, Lessons And Recommendations For APC

The year 2020 gubernatorial election in Edo state has come and gone.  Incumbent  Governor Godwin Obaseki has been declared winner by INEC, the electoral umpire. Since he won convincingly, his victory has been accepted by his closest rival, Ize Iyamu, Iyamu’s party,  the APC and the crux of the opposition party leaders- Messrs Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Godfatherism was dealt with:  In the September 2020 gubernatorial election, attempts by APC’s Adams Oshiomole and Bola Tinubu to foist their person on the people of Edo State was strongly resisted. The lesson for APC is that issue of godfatherism, imposition of candidate and frustration of eligible candidate is no longer in vogue, as the democracy of Nigeria leaps forward. It is recommended that while there can be fair internal screening of candidates, manipulation of candidates’ thirst to serve their people by arm-twisting them to step down should be discouraged.

2023 Presidential Election: Obviously, there are camps towards the struggle for the APC Presidential ticket, each trying to stifle the other camp’s ambition. The lesson is that in politics it is most unwise to underrate internal conflict, schism and the disgruntled. If the wall is not broken, the lizard cannot enter. In the September 19,2020 gubernatorial election, there were compromises and betrayals, perfected from inside the APC top hierarchy and manifested on the electoral fields.

How many sitting or past APC governors campaigned for the party and the candidate? What logistics for winning were made available for Ize-Iyamu? The recommendation is that within the South enclave of the party, certain people needs to be called to order to shelve their Presidential ambition. Unless, through hatred,  jealousy and envy for certain people, the party will be torn into shreds before the Presidential primaries by which time to hold the center together, may be too late.

INEC, Police : These umpires could conduct a fair, free and credible election if they really want to. There were marked improvements in the performance of these bodies pre, during and after the 19/9/2020 election in Edo state. Former American President, Obama said ‘ Africa needs strong institutions, not strong men’. The onus is on Nigeria’s leadership to strengthen and support these institutions as Nigeria’s democratic growth and development progresses.

APC should prepare itself as a political party through selection of candidates, campaigns, funding, party cohesion to participate in fair, free and credible elections.

Buhari and APC: The body language of Nigeria’s incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is not showing that he intends to trade his statesmanship, leadership credibility identity, integrity, posterity  for the APC, going forward. Recently, he supported a factional Chairman against erstwhile sitting National Chairman Adams Oshiomole, stating unambiguously that the rule of law was on the side of the factional Chairman.

Buhari was one of the first set of people to congratulate Obaseki for winning the September 19 elections. Clearly, he does not seem fastidious or elated about the Tinubu/Oshiomole grandstanding and he can use his enormous presidential powers, political clout to checkmate them anytime suddenly.

Given this, where their interests matter, Tinubu/Oshiomole can not rely on the presidential support as currently situated. More work, outside reliance on Buhari will need to be done by the APC and founders of the party.

South Presidential Ambition: The South East which should justifiably lay claim to the South President slot in the APC have not embraced it as a political platform since inception of the party. The party  has not perform well in the region as South East has always voted for the PDP. So, they should struggle for PDP Presidential ticket ditto for the South South.

With the capture of Edo State, the entire South South region is being controlled by PDP Governors under the leadership of Governor Nyesom Wike.

The South South PDP can justifiably lay claim to contest in PDP presidential primary, not in the APC which they have not embraced politically. By loyalty, sacrifices and service in the APC as a party , the South West APC has done well for the political party than any other region in the South.

Searchlight for APC Presidential candidate should be beamed towards a credible candidate in the Southwest, as they are bringing block votes.  In my opinion, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) may want it, desire it, long for it, qualify eminently for it but with serial losses of his hold as a national leader in the party as being orchestrated by ‘Fulani hegemony’, treatments earlier  given to late Obafemi Awolowo, Moshood Kasimawo Abiola (MKO) may just be the ‘reserved master cards’ for him. It is recommended that same BAT, shops for credible , sellable presidential candidate who can command the trust of the Hausa Fulani from the North West, North Central and North East regions.

BAT should join Buhari in the political shopping.

Welfarist Policies of Buhari’s APC: Costs of living cannot be going on like these, in high and astronomical fashion and APC would have any good hope in future elections. Masses of our people are suffering. Staple foods such as rice, bread and soup condiments are unaffordable. Farmers are being kidnapped and killed by Fulani herdsmen, their wives and children being raped.

In many families, unemployment is a common phenomenon. Costs of fuel, transportation and epileptic electricity are unavoidable. Call of people to elections involving APC is a call for display of anger of the hungry against a party suffering  and harming them. If APC does not want to continue loosing elections, it should embrace populist welfarist policies as were done during late Muritala Mohammed regime, late Shehu Yaradua and current Governor Zulu of Borno state.

People are not being by rhetorics deceived; even if they were before,  hunger, more education, social media have opened Nigerians eyes. From mid-year 2021, people should start feeling in smiling and tangible ways, the President Buhari’s APC and not these facades.

Recommendations and Realities: Let us give it to him, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is primus inter pares among politicians in APC and Nigeria. Many do not want to give it to him. The top echelon of the party need to reconcile with him.

Many of the politicians in APC  being embraced by the ‘Cabals’ against him neither has his clout or can they make any meaningful impact. The Southwest will not betray Tinubu’s leadership. Kudos to the Buni-led Convention Committee that has been successful in many reconciliation efforts and making many aggrieved party members and leaders to return to the party.

Noticeably, Buni Committee brought back former Speaker Yakubu Dogara and his allies and made meaningful impacts in the reconciliation efforts of Oyo State APC members. However, more still need to be done. Buni was not successful in uniting the various interests in Edo State  and APC failed successful reconciliation by truth and fairness committee directly reflects on party successes at the polls.

The people is the party and the people cannot be ignored by a serious political party. The lesson from September 2020 Edo State elections is also that the mass of the people cannot be ignored. APC  needs more intense, fairer and deeper work by the various reconciliation committees setup throughout the length and breadth of the country.

Therein lies the future of the party. Therein lies APC successes in future elections.

 

Idowu Ayodele

Political Desk

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