The surge in food commodity prices, driven by the removal of fuel subsidies and ongoing security challenges, has plunged millions of Nigerians into a dire situation.

A statement released on Wednesday by Julie Osagie-Jacobs, the Public Relations Officer of the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, highlighted that development partners including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), GIZ, and Agsys disclosed these findings at a joint review meeting on the implementation of food systems in Nigeria, held from August 26th to 27th, 2024.

The report indicates a sharp increase in the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity, up from 18.6 million identified as vulnerable between October and December 2023 by the U.N. World Food Programme.

“The surge in food commodity prices, which is a result of the removal of fuel subsidy in addition to security challenges, has placed millions of Nigerians in a precarious situation,” the ministry stated.

Stakeholders at the meeting advocated for a multi-sectoral approach to address food security challenges, emphasizing the need for collaboration among various sectors. They stressed that civil society organizations and the private sector must be involved to extend the reach of nutrition efforts. The partners also pledged their unwavering support to transform Nigeria’s food system.

The study, produced by development partners including the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, and the German development agency GIZ, utilized data from a nutrition analysis conducted by the Cadre Harmonise, a regional food security framework.

Sanjo Faniran, Nigeria’s national convener of Food Systems and director of social development in the budget and economic planning ministry, noted that the study helped to identify gaps, successes, and challenges, and offered recommendations.

This report comes amid soaring food inflation, which has exceeded 40 percent in the country. The crisis is a consequence of the removal of fuel subsidies by President Bola Tinubu, who took office in May 2023.

The president has stated that the removal was aimed at reducing government spending, a decision that has led to a rise in transportation costs, further exacerbating food prices.

Additionally, the persistent raids by bandits have forced many farmers to abandon their fields, contributing significantly to the increase in food prices. In response, the Nigeria Police Force announced last week that it had begun providing security for farmers in the Northern regions of the country to enable them to return to their farms as the harvest season approaches.

With food security challenges escalating, stakeholders are calling for immediate and coordinated actions to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations, particularly women and children.

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The assailants set fire to vehicles parked at the premises, causing significant damage.

In the Hadejia area of Jigawa, the #EndBadGovernance protests also turned violent, with demonstrators clashing with security forces.

Protesters who marched to the Government House in the state capital were forcibly dispersed by security agents.

The unrest extended to neighbouring Kano State, where hoodlums exploited the nationwide #EndBadGovernance protests to set ablaze vehicles parked at the State High Court.

Also, the newly built Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC) Industrial Park in Kano was looted on the first day of the protests.

The protests, which began on Thursday in response to economic hardship, have rapidly escalated in both Kano and Jigawa States, part of the North-West geopolitical zone.

In response to the unrest, Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano State has declared a 24-hour curfew to restore order.

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The CPI, tracking the fluctuation in prices of goods and services, illustrates a notable increase from the previous month’s 28.20%, underscoring the pressing concerns surrounding the nation’s economic stability.

In a recent report, the Statistics Office revealed a notable uptick in the headline inflation rate for December 2023, marking a 0.72 percentage point increase from the previous month’s figure in November 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted a significant surge, with the December 2023 rate standing at 7.58 percentage points higher compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

December 2022 witnessed an inflation rate of 21.34 percent, underscoring the economic dynamics at play.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022),” NBS said.

In a further revelation, the bureau disclosed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate for December 2023 experienced a 2.29 percent surge, surpassing November 2023 by 0.20 percent. This indicates a swifter rise in the average price level compared to the preceding month.

The report highlighted a concerning acceleration in food inflation, reaching 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis for December 2023. This marked a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from December 2022’s rate of 23.75 percent. The data underscores the persistent upward trend in food prices, a trend exacerbated by various government policies, including the removal of subsidies on petrol.

Notably, in July 2023, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity to address the escalating food prices. Taking decisive action, the President mandated that issues related to food and water availability and affordability fall under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council, recognising these as essential livelihood items in need of urgent attention.

In Monday’s inflation report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) detailed the key contributors to the year-on-year increase in the headline index. The leading factors include food & non-alcoholic beverages at 14.98 percent, housing water, electricity, gas & other fuel at 4.84 percent, clothing & footwear at 2.21 percent, and transport at 1.88 percent.

Additional contributors encompass furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.45 percent), education (1.14 percent), health (0.87 percent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.48 percent), restaurant & hotels (0.35 percent), alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (0.31 percent), recreation & culture (0.20 percent), and communication (0.20 percent).

The report highlighted a substantial 24.66 percent change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month period. This represents a significant 5.81 percent increase compared to the 18.85 percent recorded in December 2022, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

Food Inflation

In a concerning trend, the food inflation rate for December 2023 surged to 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from the same period in 2022, when the rate stood at 23.75 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this rise in food inflation to notable increases in the prices of various essential items. Key contributors include bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, fish, meat, fruit, milk, cheese, and eggs.

These price hikes collectively contributed to the intensified strain on consumers, highlighting the complex dynamics driving the upward trajectory of food prices.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.72 percent, this was 0.30 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.42 percent),” it said.

Clarifying the dynamics behind the recent uptick, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) explained that the month-on-month increase in food inflation for December 2023 was spurred by a heightened rate of escalation in the average prices of oil and fat, meat, bread, and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, as well as fish and dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.96 percent, which was a 7.02 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2022 (20.94 percent),” the report added.

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The consumer price index rose by 2.8 percent in June, down from 3.4 percent in May, Statistics Canada said. The rate spiked a year ago in June 2022 to 8.1 percent.

“While deceleration was fairly broad-based, another base-year effect in gasoline prices led the slowdown in the CPI,” the agency said.

Gasoline prices fell 21.6 percent year over year in June following an 18.3 percent decline in May.

Excluding gasoline, headline inflation would have been 4.0 percent in June, following a 4.4 percent increase in May.

Grocery prices rose 9.1 percent in June.

“The latest projections from the central bank suggest a very gradual deceleration in price growth, with inflation not reaching 2 percent until mid-2025 –- two years from now,” said Royce Mendes, an analyst at the bank Desjardins, who said he does not rule out a rise in the coming months.

Transport Minister Omar Alghabra tweeted: “Good news: Canada’s inflation rate drops to 2.8%, which is lower than most comparable countries in the world, lower than the US, Japan, France, UK, and Australia to name a few.”

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Compared to 17.71 per cent recorded in the previous month, the latest figure grew by 0.84 per cent points, also higher than the 17.75 per cent recorded in June 2021.

Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to its highest level in 65 months (over 5 years), and the fifth consecutive monthly rise. The last time the inflation rate in Nigeria touched the 18.6 per cent ceiling was January 2017, when it stood at 18.72 per cent.

Food inflation, which is closely watched index also rose to 20.6 per cent in June 2022 from 19.5 per cent recorded in May 2022. The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food products, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Meat, Fish, Oil and fat, and Wine.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate increased to 1.82 percent in June 2022, this is 0.03 percent higher than the rate recorded in May 2022 (1.78 per cent).

The percentage change in the average composite consumer purchasing index (CPI) for the twelve months period ending June 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period is 16.54 percent, showing a 0.62 percent increase compared to 15.93 percent recorded in June 2021.

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US President Joe Biden has seen his approval ratings plummet as Americans face the worst inflation surge in more than 40 years.

Promising to do whatever it takes to rein in price rises, the Federal Reserve has launched a series of aggressive interest rate hikes that have fueled concerns the country could tip into recession.

“We expect the backwards looking inflation data to be highly elevated, mainly because gas prices were so high in June,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said aboard Air Force One as she traveled with Biden to the Middle East.

With inflation running at a 40-year high in the US and gasoline prices near $5 a gallon, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was due to report the Consumer Price Index for June later on Wednesday morning.

Wall Street stocks fell Tuesday as markets gird for a potentially grim US inflation report.

Inflation in May hit a yearly rate of 8.6 percent and analysts expect it to reach 8.8 percent in the June figures.

Analysts expect headline consumer prices rose 1.1 percent in June, even faster than the level in May. However, a slower increase is expected when food and energy is excluded.

Traders fear that another report showing hot inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to double down on large interest rate hikes after the central bank announced in June it was boosting rates by three-quarters of a point, the biggest increase in nearly 30 years.

Biden will make his first visit as US president to Saudi Arabia on Friday. He will seek to persuade Riyadh to pump more oil so as to bring down prices that are fuelling the sky-high inflation in the US.

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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Tuesday revealed that the over two-year high is largely due to the supply disruption of goods and services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The NBS added that on a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 1.34% in August 2020.

“The Consumer Price Index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 13.22 percent (year-on-year) in August 2020. This is 0.40 percent points higher than the rate recorded in July 2020 (12.82 percent).

“The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending August 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.23 percent, representing a 0.18 percent point rise from 12.05 percent recorded in July 2020,” the report read .

The report also showed that food inflation hit the 16% mark in the month in review from the 15.48% recorded in July, signaling the impact of rising prices of basic food items.

“This rise in the food index was caused by an increase in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, meat, fish, fruits, oils and fats, and vegetables.

It added that “On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.67 percent in August 2020, up by 0.15 percent points from 1.52 percent recorded in July 2020”, it added.

Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 10.52 percent in August 2020, up by 0.42 percent when compared with 10.10 percent recorded in July 2020.

The report further revealed  that urban inflation rose to 13.83% year on year from the 13.40% recorded in July, but on a month on month basis, the index climbed 1.42%, while rural inflation stood at 12.65%.

It added that inflation was highest in Kogi (17.29%), Bauchi (15.77%), Ebonyi, and Yobe (14.71%), while Lagos (11.45%), Kwara (11.22%), and Abuja (11.17%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

The Central Bank had predicted that inflation is likely to rise up to 14.15% at the end of December due to supply shocks as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, which has curtailed economic activity and created disruptions.

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This was revealed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) CPI and Inflation Report for November 2019.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.02 percent in November 2019, a 0.05 percent rate lower than the rate recorded in October 2019 (1.07) percent.

The report also observed that the urban inflation rate grew by 12.47 percent (year-on-year) in November 2019 from 12.20 percent recorded in October 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.30 percent in November 2019 from 11.07 percent in October 2019.

“On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.07 percent in November 2019, down by 0.08 from 1.15 percent recorded in October 2019, while the rural index also rose by 0.98 0 percent in November 2019, down by 0.01 from the rate recorded in October 2019 (0.99) percent.”

Similarly, the composite food index rose by 14.48 percent in November 2019 compared to 14.09 percent in October 2019.

The report attributed the rise in the food index to increases in prices of Bread, Cereals, Oils and fats, Meat, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, and Fish.

Analysing the inflationary rates by state, the report noted that all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (15.40%), Sokoto (14.58%) and Niger (14.15%), while Imo (10.43%), Abuja (10.30%) and Kwara (9.70%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

“In November 2019, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Sokoto (18.77%), Kebbi (18.08%) and Ekiti (17.18%), while Katsina (12.61%), Bayelsa (12.50%) and Bauchi (12.44%) recorded the slowest rise.”

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending November 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.35 percent, representing a 0.05 percent point from 11.30 percent recorded in October 2019.

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