Global audit and tax advisory firm, KPMG, has projected that Nigeria’s unemployment rate is expected to rise to 40.6% as compared to 2022’s 37.7%.

KPMG in its International Global Economic Outlook report – H1 2023 on Tuesday, detailed this forecast, noting that “unemployment is expected to continue to be a major challenge in 2023 due to the limited investment by the private sector, low industrialization, and slower than required economic growth and consequently the inability of the economy to absorb the 4-5 million new entrants into the Nigerian job market every year”.

The report also revealed in part that there are expectations for GDP to continue to grow at a relatively slow pace of 3% in 2023 owing to the slowdown in economic activity that typically characterizes periods of political transition in Nigeria.

KPMG further explained that the spillover from an expected slowdown in the global economy in 2023 and its trade and financial flow implications are expected to drag on GDP.

“Additionally, growth will be negatively affected by the Naira Redesign Policy introduced in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 and its implications on key non-oil sectors like manufacturing, trade, accommodation and food services, transportation, and other services, further slowing down overall GDP growth in 2023,” the report added.

On the resurgence of major aspects of the economy, it forecasted that the telecommunications, trade services, as well as the oil sector, are expected to see recoveries, due to measures being taken to tackle security issues.

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This revelation was contained in the NBS’s GDP report.

The retreat ends a three-year trend of low but positive real growth rates recorded since the national economy emerged from recession in 2017.

According to the NBS, the decline was “largely attributable to significantly lower levels of both domestic and international economic activity during the quarter, which resulted from nationwide shutdown efforts aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Nigeria essentially shut down its economy in March – restricting inter-state travel, closing worship centres, schools and markets – as parts of efforts to keep the spread of the novel coronavirus under control.

“The efforts, led by both the Federal and State governments, evolved over the course of the quarter and persisted throughout,” the NBS said.

The oil sector, which accounts for a large percentage of the country’s revenues, recorded negative growth of 6.63 percent, “indicating a decrease of –13.80% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.”

The non-oil sector also declined by 6.05% in real terms during the second quarter.

“It was the first decline in real non-oil GDP growth rate since Q3 2017,” the NBS said.

Not a surprise

The economy’s decline did not come as a surprise to many as the coronavirus pandemic has gutted economic productivity across the world.

The report will be “negative,” Presidential aide, Tolu Ogunlesi, tweeted on Sunday. “Tomorrow we find out to what degree.”

The third-quarter results have also been projected to be negative, which will officially land the economy in a recession.

A recession is only declared after two consecutive quarterly contractions.

In May, Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed, predicted that the country was heading towards a recession.

“On the economy, COVID-19 has resulted in the collapse in oil prices,” she said after a National Economic Summit meeting. “This will impact negatively, and the impact has already started showing on the federation’s revenues and on the foreign exchange earnings.”

Source: Channels TV

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Efforts to address malnutrition in Nigeria require both collective and political will, a coalition of nutrition advocates led by HarvestPlus have said.

At a gathering in Lagos to announce the 2018 Nutritious Food Fair, the Country Manager for HarvestPlus, Mr Paul Ilona said urgent and coordinated efforts were needed to improve nutrition and end the 450 billion naira annual losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused by malnutrition in Nigeria.

But beyond losses in GDP, Mr Ilona stressed that the number of deaths and irreparable damage to the growth and well being of children under five and women were alarming.

“For instance, if you take vitamin A deficiency in Nigeria, 30 percent of children under five years are estimated to be vitamin A deficient… And a deficiency in vitamin A lowers immunity, impairs vision, and may lead to blindness and even death,” he said.

Globally, about 2 billion people in the developing world do not get enough essential vitamins and minerals, such as vitamin A, Zinc, and Iron in their daily diets.

Mr Ilona described the lack of essential vitamins and minerals as “Hidden Hunger,” adding that those who suffer from this situation were usually vulnerable to illnesses and infections.

“In severe cases, hidden hunger can leave children blind, stunted, or with reduced intelligence quotient (IQ), and increases a woman’s risk of dying during pregnancy,” he explained.

To address the challenge of malnutrition, HarvestPlus and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and National Root Crops Research Institute (NRCRI), Umudike, in the last two decades, developed and released provitamin A cassava varieties. IITA and HarvestPlus also developed and released provitamin A maize varieties. These varieties are being disseminated to farmers using a multi-pronged approach including awareness campaigns.

In 2015, HarvestPlus convened the first Nutritious Food Fair (NFF) in Abuja—an event to draw attention and promote the cultivation, and consumption of biofortified crops as a solution to malnutrition. The 2018 edition of the Nutritious Food Fair (NFF) which is billed to hold in Lagos on 7-9 November, builds on the previous editions and aims to bring awareness on biofortification and the dangers of malnutrition to millions of people in Nigeria’s biggest commercial city.

Francis Aminu of Dangote Foundation said  Dangote Foundation would partner HarvestPlus to end malnutrition in Nigeria. “Dangote Foundation will make a presence at the NFF,” he said.

He reiterated Dangote’s commitment to invest in nutrition and to provide opportunity for every Nigerian child and woman to live healthy.

Dr Chris Isokpunwu, Head of Nutrition, Federal Ministry of Health commended HarvestPlus for its efforts in fighting malnutrition in Nigeria.

While pledging the commitment of the Federal Government of Nigeria to improve the nutrition of women and children, Dr Isokpunwu called for joint efforts from both the private and public sectors to help fight malnutrition.

Other participants at the event included the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Technoserve, and the International Potato Center (CIP) among others.

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The Manufacturers Association frowned at the contents of the agreement, noting that it will lead to gross unemployment in the country as most manufacturing companies in the country will be made to die a quicker death.

The Association President, Dr. Frank Jacobs said his association would not support Federal Government’s adoption and ratification of the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) until issues of market access and enforcement of rules of origin are addressed.

According to MAN, the agitation from the private sector was a result of lack of consultation and inclusion of inputs of key stakeholders before Nigeria’s position was presented at the meetings of the African Union-Technical Working Group on CFTA in the build-up to AfCFTA negotiation by Nigeria.

The AfCTA is expected to create a trade bloc of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $2 trillion. The agreement commits countries to removing tariffs on 90% of goods and to liberalize services.

Addressing journalists yesterday, Association of Manufacturers President, Dr. Frank Jacobs explained that the issues of market access that allows only 10 percent of products to be protected as well as government’s enforcement mechanism in the area of enforcement of rules of origin need to be clearly defined before local producers can support the agreement.

Noting that MAN is not oblivious of the benefits inherent in installing a continental trade agreement like AfCFTA that could improve intra-African trade and enhance economic growth and sustainable development, Jacobs said that Nigeria’s national interest should however be the primary consideration in the decision to sign-on to such an arrangement.

In his recommendations, Jacobs urged the government to set in motion a process that will enable all stakeholders on the international trade value chain in Nigeria to quickly review the text of the draft AfCFTA agreement and come up with comments on areas that are not in the best interest of the Nigerian economy and sectors.

“Government should, as matter of urgency, convene a special meeting of the relevant stakeholders, including experts on trade policy to consider tariff lines rates along the line of efficiency, sectoral and sub-sectoral preferences that would be most beneficial to Nigerian businesses under the AfCFTA dispensation as well as reconsider the national position on EPA vis-a-vis the AfCFTA especially on tariff lines of products on the sensitive/exclusion list, with a view to ensuring that the EU-EPA is not reintroduced through the AfCFTA’s back door.

“Review presentations and prepare a detailed submission for the Government on ways and means of participating in the AfCFTA in a manner that our national interest and that of the budding manufacturing sector are effectively protected”, he added.

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SME’s have a large and growing impact on GDP in emerging markets and are a key source of job creation. Strengthening Africa’s infrastructure is critical for development as it is through this that African countries become more competitive at a global level. With this increased capacity, AGF will be able to support larger local currency transactions for SMEs involved in infrastructure.

Over the past 6 years, AGF has led the guarantee market in Africa by issuing financial guarantees to a tune of USD 690 million. This has enabled its partner financial institutions to issue loans estimated at USD 729 million to about 7600 African SMEs. GuarantCo is part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group, (PIDG), and is a global guarantee fund that has issued over USD 900 million of guarantees since inception in 2005 with a mandate to enable local currency finance for infrastructure.

While commenting on the GuarantCo AGF partnership, Felix BIKPO, AGF’s Chief Executive Officer stated, “AGF is glad to be joined by GuarantCo in bridging the infrastructure financing gap. This partnership aims to put in place an even stronger collaboration that will work on the entire value chain of infrastructure projects in Africa. We are looking forward to supporting other SMEs that work with key players in the infrastructure sector.”

Lasitha PERERA, GuarantCo’s Chief Executive Officer said “We are delighted to be able to partner with the African Guarantee Fund and increase support to SMEs active in the infrastructure sector in Africa. This collaboration between two local currency focussed guarantors offers the potential for us to engage local financial institutions and investors in financing the entire value chain in an African infrastructure project.”

The transaction will enable AGF and GuarantCo to explore further partnership opportunities of working together in contributing towards economic growth in Africa.

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