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Osun 2018: Gladiators, political parties strategise for epic battle

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THOUGH 2018 governorship election in Osun is about 25 months away, politicians, political parties and aspirants for the coveted seat of the governor are not leaving anything to chance, as they have begun discreet mobilisation and sensitisation of people, with a view to currying favour and support from  the electorate.

 

 Investigation conducted by Sunday Tribune indicated while some of the governorship aspirants have not publicly declared their intentions, few of them who had already done so have explored the use of their foot soldiers and local contacts in communities to shore up support.

 

However, while many of the political parties are preparing their arsenals and holding consultations in view of the imminent battle, some of these parties are enmeshed in crisis, culminating in factions, which may, if not nipped in the bud, whittle down their chances before the 2018 gubernatorial election.

 

Deeply submerged in internal wrangling is the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is sharply divided into two factions.

Since the party’s state congress in May, 2016, the seeming unity and cohesion within the PDP in Osun has collapsed, leaving in its wake a fragmented political entity, which can no longer speak with one voice on cogent issues.

The leadership tussle at the national level of the party, leading into the emergence of two national executives of the PDP, led by Senator Alimodu Sherrif and former Governor Ahmed Markafi respectively have further exacerbated the crisis in Osun PDP. While one of the factions is being led by Honourable Soji Adagunodo as the state chairman, the other faction, believed to be loyal to Senator Iyiola Omisore, the governorship candidate of the PDP in the last election, is led by Dr Bayo Faforiji.

Regardless of the intra party squabbles, some of the notable members of the PDP in Osun, eyeing the governorship seat have not shied away from mobilising and making subterranean moves to create leverage for their ambition ahead of the election.

Notable among the PDP stalwarts, who have begun underground campaigns and nocturnal meetings include the former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Honourable Adejare Bello, who was the running mate to Senator Omisore in the last governorship election; Chief Lere Oyewumi; Dr Kayode Oduoye, who also contested for the seat of Ifelodun/Boripe/Odo-Otin in last House of Representatives election, among others.

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However, pundits are of the view that the resolution of the crisis of leadership rocking the PDP in Osun and at the national level is a key factor for the chances of any of the governorship aspirant ahead of the polls.

One of the analysts, who spoke to our correspondent under the condition of anonymity said, “for the PDP to make any headway in the 2018 governorship election, there is an urgent need for the party to put its house in order. Failure to restore peace and non-resolution of the internal crisis may spell doom for the party in future elections.”

As the PDP battles to fix its internal crisis, the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) in Osun is also striving to rally its members to a common front, bearing in mind the need to retain the control of the state beyond 2018.

But, the task has been daunting as members across the three senatorial districts have become polarised along various political interests, considering many of its governorship aspirants jostling to secure the party’s ticket in the critical election.

Apparently realising the danger the towering ambitions of its members interested in the governorship seat may portend to the unity of the party, the Osun State chairman of the party, Gboyega Famoodun,  in a recent statement, cautioned any member interested in the governorship ticket to halt their moves and desist from making any public declaration until the party gives its approval.

According to him, “the party will not take kindly to any violation of this instruction as there were more important things to do in service delivery to the people of the state,” adding that “what is most important for the party now is for everyone to join hands with the governor to solve problems confronting the state.”

The statement further reads: “the governor of the state, Mr Rauf Aregbesola, is right in the middle of his second term, grappling with the difficulties of economic recession. This is not the proper time for any aspirant to divert attention from the serious business at hand.

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“Everybody with governorship aspiration should put it on hold until such a time that the party will consider appropriate. Only then will it make political sense for anyone to come out and talk about governorship aspiration.”

Notable among the party chieftains, who have commenced movements to boost their chances of clinching the governorship ticket of APC include the Deputy Speaker of the House, Hon Lasun Yussuf; the incumbent Speaker, Najeem Salaam; Senator Isiaka Adeleke; Chief of Staff to Governor Aregbesola, Alhaji Gboyega Oketola, among others.

But, out of all of these aspirants, only Senator Adeleke, who was the first governor of Osun and who currently represents Osun West Senatorial District in the National Assembly, has publicly declared his governorship ambition.

Prior to the declaration by the Ede-born flamboyant politician and business man, there were speculations that Adeleke, a politician known with a trademark cone-shaped cap, was not tinkering with idea of vying for the ultimate seat in Osun come 2018.

But, his special assistant on media and public relations, Olumide Lawal, said the development forced the clarification from his camp. The strongly-worded statement signed by Lawal practically declared the readiness of “Serubawon” to once again take a shot at the oval office in Abere White House.”

Sunday Tribune reliably gathered that Adeleke’s declaration propelled the APC to issue a warning to those planning to succeed Aregbesola within its fold, but pundits hold the notion that the party’s statement was specifically directed to the camp of Ede-born politician.

Another dimension to the emerging struggle and intrigues that may shape the nature of the 2018 battle in Osun is the recent report, which surfaced in social media, of a meeting between a group of politicians loyal to Senator Omisore and Senator Bola Tinubu at the latter’s Lagos residence.

As close associates of Senator Omisore told Sunday Tribune, the former deputy governor is not comfortable with crisis in his party, though he is exploring many avenues to restore peace and unite all the factions.

On the other hand, Tinubu, a major deciding factor in Osun politics since 2005 may be moving ahead of forces, rooting for homemade and formidable politicians, like Omisore, who has consistently challenged him.

From this calculation, reaching out to Omisore is perceived as part of the moves by the APC leader to plug all loopholes within the ruling party and even outside it, by identifying and engaging forces that can be engaged by interests outside Osun to work against him.

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To this end, meeting between Omisore’s camp and Tinubu in Lagos, taking into consideration the influence of the former in South-West PDP, is also being considered by some analysts as an indication that old allies in Alliance for Democracy (AD) of 1999 may realign to spring a surprise.

According to one of the sources to the meeting, “Senator Omisore was not in attendance, but Chief Bisi Akande, who was governor of the state when Omisore served as deputy governor, was present. The factional PDP leader in the state, Dr Bayo Faforiji was also said to have attended the meeting.”

Similarly, Diran Odeyemi, one of closest allies of Omisore and the spokesperson of the party, was said to be part of the meeting, while some major political players within PDP in Osun sympathetic to Omisore were also in attendance.

Though details of the meeting were kept under wraps, one of the insiders hinted our correspondent that issues relating to how to position South-West region in vantage position ahead of next general election dominated the discussion.

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National Issues

16 Governors Back State Police Amid Security Concerns

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In response to the escalating security challenges plaguing Nigeria, no fewer than 16 state governors have thrown their weight behind the establishment of state police forces.

This development was disclosed by the National Economic Council (NEC) during its 140th meeting, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, which took place virtually on Thursday.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, who briefed State House Correspondents after the meeting, revealed that out of the 36 states, 20 governors and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were yet to submit their positions on the matter, though he did not specify which states were among them.

The governors advocating for state police also pushed for a comprehensive review of the Nigerian Constitution to accommodate this crucial reform. Their move underscores the urgency and gravity of the security situation across the nation.

Similarly, the NEC received an abridged report from the ad-hoc committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control. This committee, headed by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, highlighted the areas of oil leakages within the industry and identified instances of infractions.

Governor Uzodinma’s committee stressed the imperative of political will to drive the necessary changes and reforms needed to combat crude oil theft effectively.

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Weak Institutions Impede Nigeria’s Sustainable Development – Says US Don

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Renowned academician, Professor Augustine Okereke, from the Medgar Evers College/City University of New York, has emphasised the detrimental impact of a lack of strong social institutions on Nigeria’s sustainable development.

Presenting a lead paper at the First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference hosted by the University of Ibadan, Professor Okereke urged President Bola Tinubu to foster robust institutions capable of combatting corruption and addressing social ills.

“All our institutions are on the decline,” warned Professor Okereke, underscoring the urgent need for effective structures to facilitate sustainable development. He highlighted the challenges faced by African countries, emphasising the risk of continued poverty, underemployment, and injustice without these foundational structures.

The Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Ibadan, Professor Ezebunwa Nwokocha, asserted the university’s commitment to providing intellectual, context-specific solutions to Nigeria’s challenges.

He called on state and federal governments to patronise researchers in the country, emphasising the faculty’s reputation for producing intellectual leaders.

Professor Nwokocha stated, “Our faculty is reputed for offering deeply intellectual, workable, and context-specific solutions to the challenges faced by Nigeria over the ages.” He emphasised the significance of the conference’s theme in aiding Nigeria’s navigation through its complex existential reality marked by despair, rising inflation, insecurity, corruption, and unemployment.

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During the conference’s opening, Vice Chancellor Professor Kayode Adebowale noted the relevance of the theme, “Social Science, Contemporary Social Issues, and the Actualization of Sustainable Development,” urging participants to generate transformative ideas for Nigeria.

Acknowledging the nation’s progress over 63 years, he expressed concern over setbacks in the economy and social indices, hoping the conference would proffer solutions.

In his keynote address, Professor Lai Erinosho stressed the rapid worldwide social change in the digital age, citing both benefits and unanticipated consequences for human survival. He cautioned against embracing same-sex relationships, citing dangerous implications for humanity.

The First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference convened a diverse array of participants to explore solutions and intellectual leadership in addressing Nigeria’s pressing challenges.

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National Issues

Nigerians’ Wallets Under Strain As Inflation Soars to 28.92%

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As the country grapples with economic challenges, the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a surge in the inflation rate to 28.92%, according to the December 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on a Monday afternoon.

The CPI, tracking the fluctuation in prices of goods and services, illustrates a notable increase from the previous month’s 28.20%, underscoring the pressing concerns surrounding the nation’s economic stability.

In a recent report, the Statistics Office revealed a notable uptick in the headline inflation rate for December 2023, marking a 0.72 percentage point increase from the previous month’s figure in November 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted a significant surge, with the December 2023 rate standing at 7.58 percentage points higher compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

December 2022 witnessed an inflation rate of 21.34 percent, underscoring the economic dynamics at play.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022),” NBS said.

In a further revelation, the bureau disclosed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate for December 2023 experienced a 2.29 percent surge, surpassing November 2023 by 0.20 percent. This indicates a swifter rise in the average price level compared to the preceding month.

The report highlighted a concerning acceleration in food inflation, reaching 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis for December 2023. This marked a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from December 2022’s rate of 23.75 percent. The data underscores the persistent upward trend in food prices, a trend exacerbated by various government policies, including the removal of subsidies on petrol.

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Notably, in July 2023, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity to address the escalating food prices. Taking decisive action, the President mandated that issues related to food and water availability and affordability fall under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council, recognising these as essential livelihood items in need of urgent attention.

In Monday’s inflation report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) detailed the key contributors to the year-on-year increase in the headline index. The leading factors include food & non-alcoholic beverages at 14.98 percent, housing water, electricity, gas & other fuel at 4.84 percent, clothing & footwear at 2.21 percent, and transport at 1.88 percent.

Additional contributors encompass furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.45 percent), education (1.14 percent), health (0.87 percent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.48 percent), restaurant & hotels (0.35 percent), alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (0.31 percent), recreation & culture (0.20 percent), and communication (0.20 percent).

The report highlighted a substantial 24.66 percent change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month period. This represents a significant 5.81 percent increase compared to the 18.85 percent recorded in December 2022, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

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Food Inflation

In a concerning trend, the food inflation rate for December 2023 surged to 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from the same period in 2022, when the rate stood at 23.75 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this rise in food inflation to notable increases in the prices of various essential items. Key contributors include bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, fish, meat, fruit, milk, cheese, and eggs.

These price hikes collectively contributed to the intensified strain on consumers, highlighting the complex dynamics driving the upward trajectory of food prices.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.72 percent, this was 0.30 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.42 percent),” it said.

Clarifying the dynamics behind the recent uptick, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) explained that the month-on-month increase in food inflation for December 2023 was spurred by a heightened rate of escalation in the average prices of oil and fat, meat, bread, and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, as well as fish and dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.96 percent, which was a 7.02 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2022 (20.94 percent),” the report added.

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