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Bold vision promises new dawn for Nigeria’s ailing petrochemical industry

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Estimated to hold 37 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, Nigeria is the second biggest oil-rich country in Africa, after Libya. The exploitation of these resources has been in the hands of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) that was established in 1977 as a merger of the Nigerian National Oil Corporation and the Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel. NNPC by law manages the joint venture between the Nigerian Government and international oil companies such as Shell, Agip, ExxonMobil, Total and Chevron.

Despite its rich resources, at present Nigeria’s state-dominated oil industry is declining, afflicted by systemic corruption, starved for international investment, and hit hard by weak oil prices. Despite that malaise, oil remains the country’s chief source of income.

A choice of paths

What many considered a watershed moment for the industry occurred earlier this year in the country’s election with two conflicting strategies for the development of the industry put forward by the two candidates.

The incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari’s planned to retain a nationalized oil industry under the NNPC banner while the vision of his opponent, Atiku Abubakar, was to sell off aging refineries to private buyers to liberalise the economy. In the end Buhari won a tight contest.

The importance of the oil and gas sector for the state cannot be underestimated with more than half of its revenue along with 85 per cent of its export revenue coming from the sector. Despite the 40 billion barrels of oil under its control, Nigeria’s ageing infrastructure can only produce around 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Adding to this malady is the state of its mid-stream and downstream infrastructure that many believe is in even worse condition than its upstream assets.  The refineries dotted around the Niger Delta region are at present producing less than half of the 500,000 barrel per day capacity, with this figure dropping to almost ten per cent late last year.

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New beginnings for NNPC

The man charged with implementing the president’s policy is Mallam Mele Kolo Kyari, who took on the role of group managing director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) early this year. He quickly vowed to reverse the trend of petroleum imports into Nigeria by improving the existing refineries and encouraging private sector investment in the refineries.

“We must end the trend of fuel importation as an oil producing country,” he said at a press conference shortly after taking on the role. “We will deliver on the rehabilitation of the four refineries within the life of this administration and support the private sector to build refineries. We will support the Dangote refinery to come on stream on schedule and we will transform Nigeria into a net exporter of petroleum products by 2023”.

He added that the government’s target of raising crude oil production and reserves to three million barrels per day and 40 billion barrels respectively was possible and that he would galvanise the corporation to achieve it by 2023.

When it comes to rooting out the corruption that has plagued the industry in Nigeria he pointed out how much NNPC had changed over the past three years from the old image of a corruption-laden organisation, stressing that he would continue to entrench the culture of accountability in the affairs of the corporation.

“We are going to work to remove every element of discretion from our processes, because discretion is one of the greatest enablers of corruption”, he said. “NNPC will not be opaque, we’ll be transparent to all so that at the end of the day everyone will be in a position to assess us and say what we have done right or wrong”.

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Support from OPEC

The Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, has commended the NNPC for its ongoing reforms aimed at changing the fortunes of the corporation for the better.

“I am glad that you continue to march on with your projects despite the downturn in the Industry, he said. “We have seen the Industry globally suffer in terms of contraction in investment which affected capacity. You have not only been able to stay on course, but you also continue with these projects which are critical for the development of the corporation and the industry in Nigeria.”

“To lead such a sensitive and capital-intensive industry like oil and gas, you must have transparency and accountability as one of your core principles in order to drive change. I am glad I have known Mele Kyari for a very long time. He is a very capable and straightforward individual with a high level of integrity even as a very junior officer. So, he has a track record. I remain confident that together with his team, and with the support of government, he will accomplish the task”.

Building a Nigerian giant

Key to this strategy of reducing imports is the Dangote refinery that is under construction near Lagos. The 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) integrated refinery and petrochemical project will be Africa’s biggest oil refinery and the world’s biggest single-train facility upon completion in 2020. The facility will be able to process a variety of light and medium grades of crude to produce Euro-V quality clean fuels including gasoline and diesel as well as jet fuel and polypropylene.

Nigeria in focus at Africa Oil Week

Relations between South Africa and Nigeria have been strained in recent months after several days of riots in South Africa in September that mainly targeted foreign-owned, including Nigerian, businesses.

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But following a visit to South Africa by Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari tensions have eased. A further sign of the improving relationship is the visit of Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, to Africa Oil Week (Africa-OilWeek.com), the minister proclaiming himself being excited to be travelling to South Africa.

As the largest upstream event on the continent, Africa Oil Week has enjoyed attendance from the industry’s highest-level decision makers for over 25 years. This year is no different, with Nigeria’s brand new NPCC GMD making his international debut at the 2019 conference in Cape Town this November (4-8).

Mallam Melee Kyari will be setting out the future vision of the NNPC under his leadership and participating in a session titled ‘Atlantic Transform Margin (Liberia to Nigeria)’, where he will provide a deep insight into the current operating landscape in some of the most highly sought-after regions.

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National Issues

16 Governors Back State Police Amid Security Concerns

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In response to the escalating security challenges plaguing Nigeria, no fewer than 16 state governors have thrown their weight behind the establishment of state police forces.

This development was disclosed by the National Economic Council (NEC) during its 140th meeting, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, which took place virtually on Thursday.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, who briefed State House Correspondents after the meeting, revealed that out of the 36 states, 20 governors and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were yet to submit their positions on the matter, though he did not specify which states were among them.

The governors advocating for state police also pushed for a comprehensive review of the Nigerian Constitution to accommodate this crucial reform. Their move underscores the urgency and gravity of the security situation across the nation.

Similarly, the NEC received an abridged report from the ad-hoc committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control. This committee, headed by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, highlighted the areas of oil leakages within the industry and identified instances of infractions.

Governor Uzodinma’s committee stressed the imperative of political will to drive the necessary changes and reforms needed to combat crude oil theft effectively.

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National Issues

Weak Institutions Impede Nigeria’s Sustainable Development – Says US Don

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Renowned academician, Professor Augustine Okereke, from the Medgar Evers College/City University of New York, has emphasised the detrimental impact of a lack of strong social institutions on Nigeria’s sustainable development.

Presenting a lead paper at the First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference hosted by the University of Ibadan, Professor Okereke urged President Bola Tinubu to foster robust institutions capable of combatting corruption and addressing social ills.

“All our institutions are on the decline,” warned Professor Okereke, underscoring the urgent need for effective structures to facilitate sustainable development. He highlighted the challenges faced by African countries, emphasising the risk of continued poverty, underemployment, and injustice without these foundational structures.

The Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Ibadan, Professor Ezebunwa Nwokocha, asserted the university’s commitment to providing intellectual, context-specific solutions to Nigeria’s challenges.

He called on state and federal governments to patronise researchers in the country, emphasising the faculty’s reputation for producing intellectual leaders.

Professor Nwokocha stated, “Our faculty is reputed for offering deeply intellectual, workable, and context-specific solutions to the challenges faced by Nigeria over the ages.” He emphasised the significance of the conference’s theme in aiding Nigeria’s navigation through its complex existential reality marked by despair, rising inflation, insecurity, corruption, and unemployment.

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During the conference’s opening, Vice Chancellor Professor Kayode Adebowale noted the relevance of the theme, “Social Science, Contemporary Social Issues, and the Actualization of Sustainable Development,” urging participants to generate transformative ideas for Nigeria.

Acknowledging the nation’s progress over 63 years, he expressed concern over setbacks in the economy and social indices, hoping the conference would proffer solutions.

In his keynote address, Professor Lai Erinosho stressed the rapid worldwide social change in the digital age, citing both benefits and unanticipated consequences for human survival. He cautioned against embracing same-sex relationships, citing dangerous implications for humanity.

The First Annual Ibadan Social Science Conference convened a diverse array of participants to explore solutions and intellectual leadership in addressing Nigeria’s pressing challenges.

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National Issues

Nigerians’ Wallets Under Strain As Inflation Soars to 28.92%

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As the country grapples with economic challenges, the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed a surge in the inflation rate to 28.92%, according to the December 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on a Monday afternoon.

The CPI, tracking the fluctuation in prices of goods and services, illustrates a notable increase from the previous month’s 28.20%, underscoring the pressing concerns surrounding the nation’s economic stability.

In a recent report, the Statistics Office revealed a notable uptick in the headline inflation rate for December 2023, marking a 0.72 percentage point increase from the previous month’s figure in November 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted a significant surge, with the December 2023 rate standing at 7.58 percentage points higher compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

December 2022 witnessed an inflation rate of 21.34 percent, underscoring the economic dynamics at play.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2022),” NBS said.

In a further revelation, the bureau disclosed that the month-on-month headline inflation rate for December 2023 experienced a 2.29 percent surge, surpassing November 2023 by 0.20 percent. This indicates a swifter rise in the average price level compared to the preceding month.

The report highlighted a concerning acceleration in food inflation, reaching 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis for December 2023. This marked a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from December 2022’s rate of 23.75 percent. The data underscores the persistent upward trend in food prices, a trend exacerbated by various government policies, including the removal of subsidies on petrol.

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Notably, in July 2023, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity to address the escalating food prices. Taking decisive action, the President mandated that issues related to food and water availability and affordability fall under the jurisdiction of the National Security Council, recognising these as essential livelihood items in need of urgent attention.

In Monday’s inflation report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) detailed the key contributors to the year-on-year increase in the headline index. The leading factors include food & non-alcoholic beverages at 14.98 percent, housing water, electricity, gas & other fuel at 4.84 percent, clothing & footwear at 2.21 percent, and transport at 1.88 percent.

Additional contributors encompass furnishings & household equipment & maintenance (1.45 percent), education (1.14 percent), health (0.87 percent), miscellaneous goods & services (0.48 percent), restaurant & hotels (0.35 percent), alcoholic beverages, tobacco & kola (0.31 percent), recreation & culture (0.20 percent), and communication (0.20 percent).

The report highlighted a substantial 24.66 percent change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month period. This represents a significant 5.81 percent increase compared to the 18.85 percent recorded in December 2022, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

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Food Inflation

In a concerning trend, the food inflation rate for December 2023 surged to 33.93 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial 10.18 percent points increase from the same period in 2022, when the rate stood at 23.75 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed this rise in food inflation to notable increases in the prices of various essential items. Key contributors include bread and cereals, oil and fat, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, fish, meat, fruit, milk, cheese, and eggs.

These price hikes collectively contributed to the intensified strain on consumers, highlighting the complex dynamics driving the upward trajectory of food prices.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.72 percent, this was 0.30 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.42 percent),” it said.

Clarifying the dynamics behind the recent uptick, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) explained that the month-on-month increase in food inflation for December 2023 was spurred by a heightened rate of escalation in the average prices of oil and fat, meat, bread, and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, as well as fish and dairy products like milk, cheese, and eggs.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending December 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 27.96 percent, which was a 7.02 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2022 (20.94 percent),” the report added.

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